Wizard of Odds plugs progression bet

Katweezel

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
QUESTION: Hi, Wizard. Let’s say I have $300 to gamble with, and can accept a 25% risk of ruin. What should I do to maximize my upside? Thanks! — Jerry T from Hertford

ANSWER: I would make the banker bet in baccarat. My betting advice would be to do what is known as a two-step progression. First, bet 1/3 of your bankroll. If that wins, walk away. If that loses, then bet the other 2/3. Again, if you win, walk. With any tie, just bet again until the bet is resolved. Here are the probabilities in baccarat:
Banker: 45.86%
Player: 44.62%
Tie: 9.52%
The probability of a banker win, given that the bet is resolved is 45.86%/(45.86%+44.62%) = 50.68%. The probability of losing both steps of the progression is (1-0.5068)2 = 24.32%. The banker bet pays 19 to 20, so you will have a 75.68% chance of winning $95, and a 24.32% chance of losing $300. June 7, 2008 . (At http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/baccarat.html .)
 
KOLAN

KOLAN

Well-Known Member
i dont know abou baccarat
bet it is look laik if you bet flat bet for bannkir it is good proffit????
 
jack.jackson

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
Katweezel said:
QUESTION: Hi, Wizard. Let’s say I have $300 to gamble with, and can accept a 25% risk of ruin. What should I do to maximize my upside? Thanks! — Jerry T from Hertford

ANSWER: I would make the banker bet in baccarat. My betting advice would be to do what is known as a two-step progression. First, bet 1/3 of your bankroll. If that wins, walk away. If that loses, then bet the other 2/3. Again, if you win, walk. With any tie, just bet again until the bet is resolved. Here are the probabilities in baccarat:
Banker: 45.86%
Player: 44.62%
Tie: 9.52%
The probability of a banker win, given that the bet is resolved is 45.86%/(45.86%+44.62%) = 50.68%. The probability of losing both steps of the progression is (1-0.5068)2 = 24.32%. The banker bet pays 19 to 20, so you will have a 75.68% chance of winning $95, and a 24.32% chance of losing $300. June 7, 2008 . (At http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/baccarat.html .)
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Hmmm, I wonder.....:rolleyes:....if Bjcount, had anything to do with this post:p

|This is a warning to all of those, who possess voudou feathers|
 
Katweezel

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
May the Voo Force be with you

jack said:
Hmmm, I wonder.....:rolleyes:....if Bjcount, had anything to do with this post:p

|This is a warning to all of those, who possess voudou feathers|
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Hey Jack, If you must know; maybe three times a year, BJCount, IHate17 and myself spend a night together in the MGM Presidential suite tickling each other with magic voodoo peacock feathers. This is purely a motivational and recharge session, for charging up the Voo Force for the coming months. No you cannot join us. This thread is not about feathers. It's about one of our many, many, very, very good sources of voodoo revenue: secret good progressions. May The Force be with you too, brother. :cat:
 
M

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
Katweezel said:
QUESTION: Hi, Wizard. Let’s say I have $300 to gamble with, and can accept a 25% risk of ruin. What should I do to maximize my upside? Thanks! — Jerry T from Hertford

ANSWER: I would make the banker bet in baccarat. My betting advice would be to do what is known as a two-step progression. First, bet 1/3 of your bankroll. If that wins, walk away. If that loses, then bet the other 2/3. Again, if you win, walk. With any tie, just bet again until the bet is resolved. Here are the probabilities in baccarat:
Banker: 45.86%
Player: 44.62%
Tie: 9.52%
The probability of a banker win, given that the bet is resolved is 45.86%/(45.86%+44.62%) = 50.68%. The probability of losing both steps of the progression is (1-0.5068)2 = 24.32%. The banker bet pays 19 to 20, so you will have a 75.68% chance of winning $95, and a 24.32% chance of losing $300. June 7, 2008 . (At http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/baccarat.html .)
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Your posting is misleading. The Wizard did not plug progression play. When you multiply out the figuires you will lose $72.96 or win $71.90.
 
Katweezel

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
Mr. T said:
Your posting is misleading. The Wizard did not plug progression play. When you multiply out the figuires you will lose $72.96 or win $71.90.
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WIZARD ANSWER:..."I would make the banker bet in baccarat. My betting advice would be to do what is known as a two-step progression"...

This is a quote from the Wizard's website. The Wizard appears to me to be plugging what he clearly calls a progression. What is misleading?
 
M

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
Katweezel said:
WIZARD ANSWER:..."I would make the banker bet in baccarat. My betting advice would be to do what is known as a two-step progression"...

This is a quote from the Wizard's website. The Wizard appears to me to be plugging what he clearly calls a progression. What is misleading?
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I tell you what is misleading in your posting.

Everybody who knows Baccarat bets on Banker. You don't need the Wizard to tell you that.

The Wizard was ask a question on a set of circumstamces on progression betting. His answer to the particular circumstances outlined was that that was the best way to play it. But it is still a losing proposition as I said earlier. Progression betting is a losing proposition and it will still lose you money. Hence the Wizard did not Plug progression betting.
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
Something is clearly getting lost in the translation. It's like aslan saying you said this and that, but then saying "you" obviously refers to someone else. do they have republicans in HK?
 
S

Savant

New Member
Katweezel said:
Your post #1. Would you, by any chance know Garnabby? :grin:
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Ho, ho... now,now, K,

(I think) you know the REAL "me" better than him/her.

Because behind every out-of-the-blue "Savant", hides a big idiot.
 
S

Savant

New Member
Mr. T said:
Your posting is misleading. The Wizard did not plug progression play. When you multiply out the figuires you will lose $72.96 or win $71.90.
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But will one lose less by it (,as the Wizard directly implies)? And if so, then how to apply that to also this game?
 
J

johndoe

Well-Known Member
Savant said:
But will one lose less by it (,as the Wizard directly implies)? And if so, then how to apply that to also this game?
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No, you won't lose less. You're still expected to lose doing this more times than not; there is no advantage. It just spreads the loss to a few hands worth.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
Katweezel said:
Would you, by any chance know Garnabby? :grin:
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The trolls never seem to stay away for long, do they? Interestingly he chose to use the same handle as a person who completely discredited him on his own website. Not very bright at all. The poor guy is trying to troll from the public library after being banned from this site and laughed off of his own. The shame never ends.

-Sonny-
 
M

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
-Sonny-
__________________
It's not the size of your bankroll, it's how you leverage it!

Mmm! Sonny, Are you sure this statement is appropiate nowadays. I mean pre-Lehman Brothers you would be right on. But post-Lehman.......

The size of my bankroll would be the be-all and end-all for me in this economy. Wish you have good luck with your bankroll.
 
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