Why Splitting Tens is a Bad Move
Posted
Among my recent emails from players, I have several on the topic of splitting tens. One player mentioned that he seems to win more often than not when splitting tens against a dealer 5 or 6, so he was wondering if the play could be justified. Actually, his basic assertion is correct. You will win more often than not when splitting tens in those situations. But, winning more than 50% of the time is only part of the story.
When the dealer has a 5 or 6 up, he will bust more than 40% of the time. That’s why basic strategy against those dealer upcards becomes quite a bit more aggressive. You should double 9, 10, and 11. Among soft totals, you should double A2 through A7. So, if you are dealt a pat 20, why not split the pair and get more money on the table while the dealer is weak?
Like all of basic strategy, this decision comes down to which action makes you the most money in the long run. Your single hand of a pat 20 is worth more than double what a single hand starting with a ten is worth.
Splitting Tens costs you money.
Assume we are playing a 6 deck, H17 game and we are dealt a pair of 10s against a dealer 6. Our initial bet is $10.
If we stand with 20, we’ll win our $10 bet 78% of the time. We’ll push with a dealer 20 about 11% of the time, and lose to a dealer 21 another 11% of the time. On average, we’ll win $6.77 by standing.
If we instead split the tens (only once) and put a $10 bet on each hand, what happens? On average, each of these hands is still a winner, but the average win on each hand is only $2.78. Our total expected win on both hands combined is just $5.56, which is more than $1 less than the value if we had just stood on the 20. Despite having twice as much money bet in a favorable situation, we are now expected to win less overall.
If it’s bad to split tens just once, it is of course worse to resplit them. If your strategy is to split tens and resplit up to the usual three times allowed, your total bet will be either $20, $30 or $40. Over all of these possibilities, your expected profit drops further yet to a grand total of only $4.51, more than $2 less than the value of your initial single $10 bet on a pat 20.
What about card counters?
Despite the risk of confusing basic strategy players, I can’t talk about splitting tens without addressing what happens if you count cards. Because card counters have extra information about the remaining cards to be dealt, they are able to identify occasions when splitting tens does become the mathematically correct play. In our example game, the Hi-Lo index number for splitting tens against a dealer 6 is +4. (For indexes for other specific games, see our Advanced Blackjack Strategy cards.) When the true count is at +4 or higher, the value of multiple hands surpasses the value of the pat 20.
Having said that, even if the true count indicates that the play is warranted it may still be a bad idea to split tens. Because the act of splitting tens draws so much attention, most card counters choose to ignore the index for splitting tens, and just keep the pat 20 regardless of the count. In some casinos, the dealer is required to announce to the pit when a player splits tens. Pit bosses know that only two kinds of players split tens… Those that don’t know any better, and those that know full-well what they are doing. If you are a card counter, you had better be sure the pit thinks you are completely harmless before you split tens. If they already view you with any suspicion, this move will confirm it.
In any case, I want to be perfectly clear about one point…
Basic strategy players shouldn’t split tens. Period.
Just don’t do it. It may seem fun, and it may be exciting. But splitting tens is just giving the casino extra money. They don’t need any extra. Stand with your 20.
To find the hand values for this article, I used MGP’s free Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer software for Windows, available at this site. If you want to explore alternative strategies and research the expected value, it is a powerful tool.
How do I turn pro playing B J T? Is there such a thing? Thanks
Most of the really nice blackjack tournaments are unfortunately a distant memory. Back in the 1990s, there were large open events held all over the country. Now you can count the number of casinos in the US who still host good open events on your fingers, maybe on one hand. To be successful on the tournament circuit today, you will need to get in to the high-end invitation-only events and even those are in sharp decline. So I’m afraid you’re late to the game for turning pro on the BJT circuit. It was never an easy way to make a living. I have to believe it is now impossible. Because the variance of events is so very high, you need to play a large number of tournaments to succeed. The events just don’t exist in great enough numbers any more. Sorry!
The problem with this is that you say to always make the correct play “in the long run”. I’m not playing for the long run, I’m playing for 3 hours where I might see 200 hands, not the millions simulated to come up with this answer of yours. That sir makes my play “the short term” and anything can happen in the short term and I pose another question for you. If basic strategy is the end all be all than why is everyone losing at an even money 50/50 game? I mean your no millionaire, theres no professional blackjack players out there and last I heard the casino has been beating everyone at this game since the dawn of time.
My, where do I even start? Feel free to make your bad plays in the “short run” and hope that works out for you. Of course anything can happen in the short run. But betting on the most likely outcome sure works a lot better.
I never claimed that basic strategy was the “end all be all”. Basic strategy is indeed a losing strategy. It just happens to lose less than any other way of playing that does not use additional information. Blackjack is not an “even money 50/50 game”. There is a built in house edge because the dealer plays last. (If you bust, he wins your money even if he busts too.)
If you expect a profit at the game, you need more than basic strategy. You need additional information like you can get from card counting, shuffle tracking, or hole card play.
No professional blackjack players out there? I know lots of them, and they generally are very successful.
I dont think it can be explained any better sir
A push sucks if I double my 11 v dealer 6 and he sucks out a 21 on me.
You can leave a winner every time if you just go and watch the free entertainment or Cheer on a friend. Not playing is a win just like getting a push isn’t a bad feeling
Personally I am a conservative player, If i’m sitting on twenty the odds are I have a better chance of winning. Like the article above it draws to much attention especially if the table loses because of this play. 2 deck is the only way to play with basic strategy and counting cards. If you don’t keep count of the cards and use strict money management than you don’t need to play this game if you are trying to win money. You also need a preplanned betting strategy before entering the casino. Example the count is+5, If you bet 4 units and win go back to 3 if you win 5 if you win again go to 4, if you lose. You still won 8 units per say if you double each bet you will be back to where you started from or worse. This is what the casino likes. They call them peasants. Above all else you have to have a high degree of disciple, Know when to get your ASS up, It doesn’t matter what you play are how good you are sooner are later the cards will change. Always leave a winner.
No one can always a leave a winner. Don’t care how you play.