Here are all the comments posted on the site, with the most recent discussions listed first. To participate in any of these discussions, you can reply on the article page.
Thank you for the info. I see you calculated stand on 17. I only have the option of hit on soft 17. I can assume the risk of ruin and 100/h win rate will be even worse than the calculations above, correct?
And I claim I looked at your message before deciding! Oops, my mistake! Here is a run for H17: $10 to $120 spread: 75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $16, RoR: 32% 83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 21%
$15 to $180 spread: 75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $24, RoR: 47% 83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $33, RoR: 36%
AND, I realize now that I posted NDAS numbers before. I corrected the numbers in the S17 reply. They are now DAS as intended.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
Hi Ken. I’ve been playing basic strategy for years and am starting to learn to count properly. I’m going on a trip to Connecticut and playing at MS. The BSE says to surrender 16 against a 10, I get that, but it says to stay if no surrender. I’ve never stayed on 16 against a 10, is that really mathematically correct? Thanks, Glen
Thanks Ken. I read the article and I’ll do what your BSE says. I just wanted to make sure. My wife & friends are going to over me some strange looks when they see these plays. I love your site, Thanks again, Glen
Good luck! Just remember, that 16vT advice is based on a game that offers surrender. If there is no surrender, then hit all the two-card 16s vs a dealer ten, and you can stand on any three-or-more-card 16s vs ten.
I’m also not sure if they H17 or S17, but if it’s H17 it says to surrender, or stay with 17 against an Ace. Ok, so I’ve never stood on 16 against 10 and I’ve never surrendered a 17. Can you help me understand these 2 plays? Thanks again, Glen
For 16vT, see the article I linked in my last reply. For surrendering 17vA (correct when the dealer hits soft 17), well, 17 against an Ace is a very weak hand. It is made even worse when the dealer hits soft 17, because he cannot flip over a 6 for an immediate push on the hand. It’s just enough to swing the numbers slightly in favor of surrendering over standing. Again, that’s ONLY in the H17 game. In the S17 game, you should stand with 17vA.
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
I ran CVCX from Qfit.com to get some numbers. CVCX is worth the money for these sorts of calculations, even though it takes a while to get the hang of it.
6 decks, S17, DAS, $8000 bank:
$10 to $120 spread: 75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 24% 83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $26, RoR: 15%
$15 to $180 spread: 75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $32, RoR: 38% 83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $40, RoR: 28%
With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $10-$120 RoR drops to 11%. With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $15-$180 RoR is still 24%.
The killer in 6+ deck games is the cost of waiting through the crud. If you can backcount, it makes a huge difference. That’s tough most places these days due to mid-shoe entry restrictions and increased heat. But at least make sure you take breaks on really negative counts. That will help a lot.
If it’s really a non-replenishable bankroll, I think it’s too risky. My rule of thumb is to not make an initial bet of more than 1% of your bankroll. That would imply a $12K bank for $10-$120, and a $18K bank for $15-$180. I also realize that when starting out, that can be an unmanageable sum to accrue. Most players in that situation will take a shot with the smaller bank. If it falls apart, it’s back to work to build another bank.
I don’t trust my off-the-cuff RoR estimates because I’m out of practice. Let me see if I can do a quick job tonight to get a real estimate for you.
Staying at Wynn there are still tables in both casinos with 3:2 and sh17 but you have to hunt them out they are typically higher min bet tables.
Thank you for the info. I see you calculated stand on 17. I only have the option of hit on soft 17. I can assume the risk of ruin and 100/h win rate will be even worse than the calculations above, correct?
And I claim I looked at your message before deciding! Oops, my mistake!
Here is a run for H17:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $16, RoR: 32%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 21%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $24, RoR: 47%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $33, RoR: 36%
AND, I realize now that I posted NDAS numbers before.
I corrected the numbers in the S17 reply. They are now DAS as intended.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
For a visual example, see https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm
So far, I have not had time to rework Lesson 9 and it’s SD information. My sole focus right now is the new version of the trainer.
Hi Ken. I’ve been playing basic strategy for years and am starting to learn to count properly. I’m going on a trip to Connecticut and playing at MS. The BSE says to surrender 16 against a 10, I get that, but it says to stay if no surrender. I’ve never stayed on 16 against a 10, is that really mathematically correct?
Thanks,
Glen
That’s the odd strategy chart situation that creates more mail than any other here.
See 16vT: RS. WTF?
Thanks Ken. I read the article and I’ll do what your BSE says. I just wanted to make sure. My wife & friends are going to over me some strange looks when they see these plays.
I love your site,
Thanks again,
Glen
Good luck! Just remember, that 16vT advice is based on a game that offers surrender. If there is no surrender, then hit all the two-card 16s vs a dealer ten, and you can stand on any three-or-more-card 16s vs ten.
I’m also not sure if they H17 or S17, but if it’s H17 it says to surrender, or stay with 17 against an Ace. Ok, so I’ve never stood on 16 against 10 and I’ve never surrendered a 17. Can you help me understand these 2 plays?
Thanks again,
Glen
For 16vT, see the article I linked in my last reply.
For surrendering 17vA (correct when the dealer hits soft 17), well, 17 against an Ace is a very weak hand. It is made even worse when the dealer hits soft 17, because he cannot flip over a 6 for an immediate push on the hand. It’s just enough to swing the numbers slightly in favor of surrendering over standing. Again, that’s ONLY in the H17 game. In the S17 game, you should stand with 17vA.
That makes sense. Thanks for the quick response. Love your website
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Whoops, forgot to mention the key difference: I use KO, not Hi-Lo
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
Thanks for that. I’ll just use the HiLo system in that case and get the cards. It’s worth it just to support this site!
Question: when I buy them, can you send them electronically or do I have to wait for them in the mail?
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
I ran CVCX from Qfit.com to get some numbers.
CVCX is worth the money for these sorts of calculations, even though it takes a while to get the hang of it.
6 decks, S17, DAS, $8000 bank:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 24%
83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $26, RoR: 15%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% (4.5/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $32, RoR: 38%
83% (5.0/6) penetration: Win per 100 hands: $40, RoR: 28%
With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $10-$120 RoR drops to 11%.
With a $12K bank, 75% penetration $15-$180 RoR is still 24%.
The killer in 6+ deck games is the cost of waiting through the crud. If you can backcount, it makes a huge difference.
That’s tough most places these days due to mid-shoe entry restrictions and increased heat.
But at least make sure you take breaks on really negative counts. That will help a lot.
If it’s really a non-replenishable bankroll, I think it’s too risky. My rule of thumb is to not make an initial bet of more than 1% of your bankroll. That would imply a $12K bank for $10-$120, and a $18K bank for $15-$180. I also realize that when starting out, that can be an unmanageable sum to accrue. Most players in that situation will take a shot with the smaller bank. If it falls apart, it’s back to work to build another bank.
I don’t trust my off-the-cuff RoR estimates because I’m out of practice. Let me see if I can do a quick job tonight to get a real estimate for you.
Thanks for the reply Ken, In your opinion is $8K bankroll sufficient for $15 tables?