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Is it more favourable to surrender than to hit 16 vs 10 at -1? I’m sure this info is on here somewhere, but I haven’t found it.
Thanks for the site and info
B
With 16vT, when surrender is available, surrender if the true count is -4 or higher, else hit.
When surrender is not available, stand at true count 0 or higher, else hit.
I have a relatively small bankroll and comps and match plays really make a huge impact on my future game (have not frequented many times yet), but wanted to clarify some thoughts. In a hypothetical situation, if I was to be receiving a $100 match-play bonus, is my EV out of that around $97 (assuming I play it at a house disadvantage) or is it around $47 for player (since house has a 3% edge making it around $53 for the house). Sorry if this seems silly, but I just wanted to make sure about the math before I dive into this.
Regardless, would this match play make a red chipper who spreads $10-100 (max bet) at a very high advantage or is negligible towards the hourly / bottom line? I assume even at a $47 free-roll, that has to impact a $10 min when max is $100.
Match plays offer a huge boost for low limit players. In fact the edge from coupons will often dwarf the rest of your advantage. That’s a good thing!
The EV for a $100 match play will be less than half face value, but not for the reason you were trying to give… Match plays are usually discarded after one decision, win or lose. So it’s not like a regular bet that you keep on a win.
I just got my basic strategy card but in the key for doubling both are listed as D with no distinguishing factor between double else hit or double else stand and only soft a soft 8 hand with a dealer 2-6 has a DS all other are D. I am wondering if I am being dumb or the card is misprinted?
Thanks for answering my last question; I think this is the best spot for my question about doubles and splits.
A few casinos offer to “pay for your doubles and splits.”
I’m guessing this is actually very few hands, but how does this affect a player advantage (assuming you keep using correct strategy)?
Thanks again,
Ben
Thanks so much for your strategy trainer, it’s helped my game so much! One feature I’d like to see added is the option to disable the display of the player’s hand total, having my hand total automatically displayed is a distraction when I’m practicing my card counting (I need to be able to do both simultaneously).
I have a question : which method is used in the Basic Strategy Variations Matrix( for counting 1 deck )? the hi/lo or the‘Hi-Opt 1′ ?
it’s written that for counting one deck it’s better to use ‘Hi-Opt 1′ but i’m not sure on which of this 2 system is based the matrix that i have to learn
I believe those indexes are for Hi-Opt 1, and I am really surprised at how much they differ from Hi-Lo.
This is another aspect of the GameMaster School that I did not closely audit when publishing.
I definitely need to take a closer look at them and make sure they are good numbers for Hi-Opt I, and make that clear. Thanks!
I recently finished my first month of card counting adventures. With a spread of 1-20 betting units (rarely do I spread to 20), is winning 500 betting units in ~6 sessions or 30 hours an unreasonable win rate or am I on a super heater? There have been times where I have bet 20 units and lost 80 units from splits and dd. Also is this type of spread going to get me a lot of heat and get kicked out [yes it varies for each casino, whether it is low end or high end / but I just wanted to hear you guys opinion]
You’re blazing hot, and winning 500 units in 30 hours is way above expectation. 1-20 is aggressive, but that’s probably a good thing. Don’t camp out for extended sessions, but it’s a lot easier to beat multi-deck games with that kind of spread.
Thank you for your quick response, follow up question!
With your experience, what do you think a general estimated 1-15 or 1-20 spread would make hourly in betting units? I’m playing a 8 deck with good penetration, H17, double down any card, split aces 4x, no surrender, yes insurance, 3:2 payout.
odds for 6 deck bj double bonus odds i get 9 – 1 on 3 card poker hands the second bonus bets only payout for straight flushes 180 – 1
3 of a kind 90 – 1
and 3 suited of a kind for 270 – 1
how bad are these odds what are the true odds
16vT: Stand at 0 or higher.
15vT: Stand at +4 or higher.
My Advanced cards have very precise indexes for 6 different sets of rules.
For a free version of the most important numbers, check the FAQ post about the “Illustrious 18“, a list of the 18 most important indexes.
If I recall on what I’ve read so far (new to this), in high true counts (let’s say 6+), then for hands 15 and up, you should always stand correct? Like a +1 and you should stand on 16 vs 10, at what count would I have to stand on a 15?
Short answer: Just always hit 12, 13, and 14 vs Ten.
Longer answer:
For 12vT and 13vT, the count basically never gets high enough to stand.
With 14vT, the appropriate Hi-Lo index would be very high. I know it is more than +10 true count, because I ran very in-depth data for the range of -10 to +10, and 14vT was still “always hit”.
Wong’s Professional Blackjack book shows “Always Hit” for 14vT with the Hi-Lo count, but for his Halves count, he gives an index of +10.
This is likely because the Halves count includes sevens, which are quite important for that specific hand.
You asked if I had feedback from players on this issue, and actually, I have not. I need to start asking around, and see what players are experiencing with it.
It will likely end up depending on the venue a lot. There are some places I play where I would not consider pulling out a card, and yet there are others pits where I would feel completely comfortable.
Since you have memorized the Illustrious 18, you are getting 80-90% of the value already without the card actually in hand. You have likely also developed some feel for the decisions that are not among the 18, but are marginal. With that in mind, you may find only one or two hands per hour where you would want to look at the card.
I completely understand the quandary, and I would love to hear your thoughts afterward if you use it.
Even if the pit actually looks at the card, there is a good chance they would not notice the dots. Worst case, if I found myself confronted with a pit person asking about the dots, I would tell him the dots tell me which hands it’s safe to play on a hunch if I don’t want to follow the advice. It’s just goofy enough to maybe work, and there’s a little truth behind it.
Is it more favourable to surrender than to hit 16 vs 10 at -1? I’m sure this info is on here somewhere, but I haven’t found it.
Thanks for the site and info
B
With 16vT, when surrender is available, surrender if the true count is -4 or higher, else hit.
When surrender is not available, stand at true count 0 or higher, else hit.
Hello thanks for previous answers, new question!
I have a relatively small bankroll and comps and match plays really make a huge impact on my future game (have not frequented many times yet), but wanted to clarify some thoughts. In a hypothetical situation, if I was to be receiving a $100 match-play bonus, is my EV out of that around $97 (assuming I play it at a house disadvantage) or is it around $47 for player (since house has a 3% edge making it around $53 for the house). Sorry if this seems silly, but I just wanted to make sure about the math before I dive into this.
Regardless, would this match play make a red chipper who spreads $10-100 (max bet) at a very high advantage or is negligible towards the hourly / bottom line? I assume even at a $47 free-roll, that has to impact a $10 min when max is $100.
thoughts are appreciated
Josh
Match plays offer a huge boost for low limit players. In fact the edge from coupons will often dwarf the rest of your advantage. That’s a good thing!
The EV for a $100 match play will be less than half face value, but not for the reason you were trying to give… Match plays are usually discarded after one decision, win or lose. So it’s not like a regular bet that you keep on a win.
Play all of them you can. Very helpful.
I just got my basic strategy card but in the key for doubling both are listed as D with no distinguishing factor between double else hit or double else stand and only soft a soft 8 hand with a dealer 2-6 has a DS all other are D. I am wondering if I am being dumb or the card is misprinted?
It’s not you. 🙂
The most recent reprint has an error in the legend.
“DS” should say Double if allowed, else stand.
Sorry for the confusion.
Thanks for answering my last question; I think this is the best spot for my question about doubles and splits.
A few casinos offer to “pay for your doubles and splits.”
I’m guessing this is actually very few hands, but how does this affect a player advantage (assuming you keep using correct strategy)?
Thanks again,
Ben
See here: http://wizardofodds.com/games/free-bet-blackjack/
Thanks so much for your strategy trainer, it’s helped my game so much! One feature I’d like to see added is the option to disable the display of the player’s hand total, having my hand total automatically displayed is a distraction when I’m practicing my card counting (I need to be able to do both simultaneously).
Making the hand total display optional is planned for the next version.
Hi , thanks for this lessons.
I have a question : which method is used in the Basic Strategy Variations Matrix( for counting 1 deck )? the hi/lo or the‘Hi-Opt 1′ ?
it’s written that for counting one deck it’s better to use ‘Hi-Opt 1′ but i’m not sure on which of this 2 system is based the matrix that i have to learn
Thanks Lorenzo
I believe those indexes are for Hi-Opt 1, and I am really surprised at how much they differ from Hi-Lo.
This is another aspect of the GameMaster School that I did not closely audit when publishing.
I definitely need to take a closer look at them and make sure they are good numbers for Hi-Opt I, and make that clear. Thanks!
Hello Again,
I recently finished my first month of card counting adventures. With a spread of 1-20 betting units (rarely do I spread to 20), is winning 500 betting units in ~6 sessions or 30 hours an unreasonable win rate or am I on a super heater? There have been times where I have bet 20 units and lost 80 units from splits and dd. Also is this type of spread going to get me a lot of heat and get kicked out [yes it varies for each casino, whether it is low end or high end / but I just wanted to hear you guys opinion]
Thanks Again
Josh
You’re blazing hot, and winning 500 units in 30 hours is way above expectation. 1-20 is aggressive, but that’s probably a good thing. Don’t camp out for extended sessions, but it’s a lot easier to beat multi-deck games with that kind of spread.
Thank you for your quick response, follow up question!
With your experience, what do you think a general estimated 1-15 or 1-20 spread would make hourly in betting units? I’m playing a 8 deck with good penetration, H17, double down any card, split aces 4x, no surrender, yes insurance, 3:2 payout.
Thanks
odds for 6 deck bj double bonus odds i get 9 – 1 on 3 card poker hands the second bonus bets only payout for straight flushes 180 – 1
3 of a kind 90 – 1
and 3 suited of a kind for 270 – 1
how bad are these odds what are the true odds
16vT: Stand at 0 or higher.
15vT: Stand at +4 or higher.
My Advanced cards have very precise indexes for 6 different sets of rules.
For a free version of the most important numbers, check the FAQ post about the “Illustrious 18“, a list of the 18 most important indexes.
@Ken Smith:
Hello and thanks,
If I recall on what I’ve read so far (new to this), in high true counts (let’s say 6+), then for hands 15 and up, you should always stand correct? Like a +1 and you should stand on 16 vs 10, at what count would I have to stand on a 15?
Thanks again
Short answer: Just always hit 12, 13, and 14 vs Ten.
Longer answer:
For 12vT and 13vT, the count basically never gets high enough to stand.
With 14vT, the appropriate Hi-Lo index would be very high. I know it is more than +10 true count, because I ran very in-depth data for the range of -10 to +10, and 14vT was still “always hit”.
Wong’s Professional Blackjack book shows “Always Hit” for 14vT with the Hi-Lo count, but for his Halves count, he gives an index of +10.
This is likely because the Halves count includes sevens, which are quite important for that specific hand.
You asked if I had feedback from players on this issue, and actually, I have not. I need to start asking around, and see what players are experiencing with it.
It will likely end up depending on the venue a lot. There are some places I play where I would not consider pulling out a card, and yet there are others pits where I would feel completely comfortable.
Since you have memorized the Illustrious 18, you are getting 80-90% of the value already without the card actually in hand. You have likely also developed some feel for the decisions that are not among the 18, but are marginal. With that in mind, you may find only one or two hands per hour where you would want to look at the card.
I completely understand the quandary, and I would love to hear your thoughts afterward if you use it.
Even if the pit actually looks at the card, there is a good chance they would not notice the dots. Worst case, if I found myself confronted with a pit person asking about the dots, I would tell him the dots tell me which hands it’s safe to play on a hunch if I don’t want to follow the advice. It’s just goofy enough to maybe work, and there’s a little truth behind it.