To wong or not to wong...

Hi everybody:

Just about a week or so ago I almost accidentally ran into this forum. I find it very good and informative for any BJ player, novice or advanced.

I've been playing BJ for about 5-6 years, pretty strictly following the basic strategy and I believe that helped me to almost break even, in the long run. I am definitely on the losing end, but by just a very small margin. I think that's about the best that BS can do (play for fun, without losing your shirt).

Recently, I finally decided to try learning card counting and see if that can win me a few more bucks. I am still a pretty poor counter (around 30 seconds per deck, at home). In the casino environment, based on my experience, this means that I can keep pace and keep the count with slower dealers, but when a fast dealer comes to the table, I usually get lost and am forced to revert to BS only. Since I am not confident enough yet, my spreads are pretty symbolic (1-3 maybe). Basically, I bet flat whenever the TC is lower than +2, at +2 I go with 1.5 or 2 units, and at higher counts (+4 or higher), I increase my bet to about 3 units. It also depends on what the table min is; I can feel more adventurous and increase my bet from $5 to $15 or $20, but if I play at a $15 or $25 table, then I'm usually not that courageous, and maybe only double my bet, even if the count is calling for more.

I'm in Canada and the problem is that I only have 4 or 5 casinos I can go to and the distance between these is a big factor. So, on any given day, I'm pretty much stuck with the casino of my choice for that day. Typically, there are not too many BJ tables that I can choose from (the places are crowded), and most of the time a lot of seats are taken. So, usually, rather than being able to select a "good" table, I have to take any available seat at any table.

Now, the question about wonging, mostly wonging out. I have already witnessed quite a few times that when the count is not favorable (-2, or lower), I lose most hands, as expected. So, obviously, it would be rather useful to wong out, or sit out for the rest of that shoe. But under all the above mentioned circumstances, if I get up and leave, I might not get another open spot at another table. I was thinking of taking a washroom break maybe, when the count is bad, but if I start doing it on a regular basis, that's gonna be pretty easy to spot.

Any ideas guys? I understand that wonging out might not be an option for me. Do I just play through the low counts, betting minimum and hoping for the best, and try to hit it harder in the + count territory.

Wonging is not an option? Well, the other option is losing.

If you are scared of being banned, stop playing and come back with a large bankroll, so that you will have made money when you get banned.

But your 1-3 spread is gambling, you will lose if not wonging.

DonR said:

Any ideas guys? I understand that wonging out might not be an option for me. Do I just play through the low counts, betting minimum and hoping for the best, and try to hit it harder in the + count territory.

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There are two things you can ustilize simultaneously -
1) Use the cellphone ploy to step out without losing the seat., and
2) Try getting away with betting every other hand during negative counts, effectively doubling your spread. zg

ThodorisK said:

But your 1-3 spread is gambling, you will lose if not wonging.

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Does this mean that wider spreads will compensate for no wonging, at least to some extent? It might be bad for my blood pressure, but if that's the right way to do it, so be it, I guess

zengrifter said:

There are two things you can ustilize simultaneously -
1) Use the cellphone ploy to step out without losing the seat., and
2) Try getting away with betting every other hand during negative counts, effectively doubling your spread. zg

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Yes, I considered skipping a hand or two, when the count is negative. The thing I see as a small problem with that is the fact that negative TC's are created as a result of a lot of face cards being dealt. My point is that during the creation of these negative counts, chances are you might actually be winning a few hands. So now, after possibly winning some hands, you decide to sit out a hand or two. Wouldn't that draw attention? What is your experience?

Thank you for replying, guys.

Man, if you are rich so that you can afford the spread, why card count at all? I never bet when there is no edge. I wouldnt do it unless the minimoum bet was 1 euro and I could afford for my average big bet to be 50 euros. That's for 6 decks and over. Now for 4 decks, I donno, perhaps 1 to 30. Otherwise too much risk for petty profits. If you raise your bets when the count is positive, management will soon know you are counting anyway, so wonging is not more dangerous that management will spot your counting. And if the problem is that all 7 boxes will be covered, then there is no solution. Dont they have higher limit tables with fewer players?

But if you keep wonging, other players will keep nagging because you open and close boxes. But if you win much, you will get banned anyway, so just ignore the morons who think the reason of their losses is opening and closing boxes. Tell them to go to hell too, dont bear insults just to do not get banned. As long as you dont win much, it is very unlikely that they will ban you. That's why you must have a big bankroll otherwise it's useless. And if you have a big bankroll, it is again better to wong than keeping a box open. Because when you bet at least 100 euros, other players shut it up and dont complain "why you open and close boxes". These idiots who play it rough guys dont have the guts to complain about the same thing to the rich.

DonR said:

Does this mean that wider spreads will compensate for no wonging, at least to some extent? It might be bad for my blood pressure, but if that's the right way to do it, so be it, I guess.

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I detect some confusion. Answer this - why would an increased spread cause your blood pressure to rise? zg

zengrifter said:

I detect some confusion. Answer this - why would an increased spread cause your blood pressure to rise? zg

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Well, let's say I'm playing at a $15 table, which means I'm betting that amount each hand, while the count is neutral. As the count increases, I'm supposed to increase my bets, according to my spread. Now, if I am to use a wider spread (1:8, 1:12, or more), that would mean I'd have to bet a significantly larger amount of money every hand, with high TC. At very high TC values, I might have to hit it with $120, $180, or more. And even though I understand why my chances of winning a hand or two are now mathematically better, the so much increased betting amount is obviously going to make me feel more nervous, because I can still lose those hands. It is gambling, after all. That's all I meant about the blood pressure.

What is your opinion about using the TC mainly to adjust your basic strategy and not so much increase the original bet (keep the spread rather low, maybe 1 to 3, or 4)? Would this have any chance of success in the long run?

With BS alone and flat betting, which I've played for the last 5-6 years, I'm obviously still on the losing end, not by much, but still losing. And that's exactly what's to be expected, based on the advantage that the house has. I'm trying to slightly switch it over to my favor, so that in the long run I am in the plus territory. Do you think that can be achieved without very wide betting spread?

DonR said:

Well, let's say I'm playing at a $15 table, which means I'm betting that amount each hand, while the count is neutral. As the count increases, I'm supposed to increase my bets, according to my spread. Now, if I am to use a wider spread (1:8, 1:12, or more), that would mean I'd have to bet a significantly larger amount of money every hand, with high TC. At very high TC values, I might have to hit it with $120, $180, or more. And even though I understand why my chances of winning a hand or two are now mathematically better, the so much increased betting amount is obviously going to make me feel more nervous, because I can still lose those hands. It is gambling, after all. That's all I meant about the blood pressure.

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Okay, got it. YES your confusion is a common one: A true AP card-counter ALWAYS calcs spread from the top down. Your max bet size is a function of your BR. For example 1% is the maxBet of many counters - that amount is calc'd FIRST, then the min and incremental bets from that.

What is your opinion about using the TC mainly to adjust your basic strategy and not so much increase the original bet (keep the spread rather low, maybe 1 to 3, or 4)? Would this have any chance of success in the long run?

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No, not in a 6D+ game UNLESS one is religiously avoiding -EV counts and only playing +EV counts (ie, "wonging")

With BS alone and flat betting, which I've played for the last 5-6 years, I'm obviously still on the losing end, not by much, but still losing. And that's exactly what's to be expected, based on the advantage that the house has. I'm trying to slightly switch it over to my favor, so that in the long run I am in the plus territory. Do you think that can be achieved without very wide betting spread?

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ONLY IF, as a slightly advanced casual player you can work the comps into the overall equation - a 1-4 spread play-all 6D game, notwithstanding ruless variation, combined with expert COMP-counting would be profitable. zg

DonR said:

Now, the question about wonging, mostly wonging out. I have already witnessed quite a few times that when the count is not favorable (-2, or lower), I lose most hands, as expected. So, obviously, it would be rather useful to wong out, or sit out for the rest of that shoe. But under all the above mentioned circumstances, if I get up and leave, I might not get another open spot at another table. I was thinking of taking a washroom break maybe, when the count is bad, but if I start doing it on a regular basis, that's gonna be pretty easy to spot.

Any ideas guys? I understand that wonging out might not be an option for me. Do I just play through the low counts, betting minimum and hoping for the best, and try to hit it harder in the + count territory.

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When count is down take a cell phone call. If casino "no smoking" tell dealer you're going out for a smoke, tell him you need some air, bathroom breaks are good and not noticed unless really excessive... especially if drinking (get soda water with swizzle from bar, get another on BR breaks). Some dealers will hold your seat for a meal if you're not too long (tips help). I've seen people sit in a seat not playing or chatting to a friend and the dealers rarely say anything unless a player comes along and asks. If one asks you for the spot say "sorry, I'm still playing". Push a small bet out next hand if you have to.

What is your opinion about using the TC mainly to adjust your basic strategy and not so much increase the original bet (keep the spread rather low, maybe 1 to 3, or 4)? Would this have any chance of success in the long run?

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zengrifter said:

...
No, not in a 6D+ game UNLESS one is religiously avoiding -EV counts and only playing +EV counts (ie, "wonging")
.. zg

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this is where bad little soldiers can effectively wong using unacceptable methods:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=98272&postcount=134

effectively doin the wrong thing at the right time. as in the Cincinnati Kid:

zengrifter said:

I detect some confusion. Answer this - why would an increased spread cause your blood pressure to rise? zg

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because your mind, emotions, brain, body are not geared for understanding complex probabilistic situations.
to make it worse psychologists believe that most people when presented with a series of equal but opposite rewarding and punishing events that the punishing events tend to out weigh the effect on the mind and body. so even when your in an even outcome after such a series one still tends to be miserable because of the bad element of the equation.

zengrifter said:

Okay, got it. YES your confusion is a common one: A true AP card-counter ALWAYS calcs spread from the top down. Your max bet size is a function of your BR. For example 1% is the maxBet of many counters - that amount is calc'd FIRST, then the min and incremental bets from that.

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I guess I'll have to rethink my whole approach to this matter and build a proper battle strategy. Just to clarify one thing: the bankroll is the overall amount of money that you are willing to dedicate to a series of sessions, not the amount for one session only...right?

zengrifter said:

ONLY IF, as a slightly advanced casual player you can work the comps into the overall equation - a 1-4 spread play-all 6D game, notwithstanding ruless variation, combined with expert COMP-counting would be profitable. zg

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A part of my problem is the fact that I'm still torn between the two options: 1 - trying to become a true AP card counter, or 2 - as you said, be just a slightly advanced casual player. Looks like I'm leaning towards option 2, because I think (and I could be completely wrong) that this option brings less stress and maybe less heat (smaller spreads possibly not drawing as much attention from the management)

The fact that here in Canada I'm pretty much condemned to 8D games most likely does not help my cause.

sagefr0g said:

because your mind, emotions, brain, body are not geared for understanding complex probabilistic situations.
to make it worse psychologists believe that most people when presented with a series of equal but opposite rewarding and punishing events that the punishing events tend to out weigh the effect on the mind and body. so even when your in an even outcome after such a series one still tends to be miserable because of the bad element of the equation.

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Well stated! That's exactly where the problem is. But we are all human and it is not easy to break free from this type of reasoning.

DonR said:

I guess I'll have to rethink my whole approach to this matter and build a proper battle strategy. Just to clarify one thing: the bankroll is the overall amount of money that you are willing to dedicate to a series of sessions, not the amount for one session only...right?

A part of my problem is the fact that I'm still torn between the two options: 1 - trying to become a true AP card counter, or 2 - as you said, be just a slightly advanced casual player. Looks like I'm leaning towards option 2, because I think (and I could be completely wrong) that this option brings less stress and maybe less heat (smaller spreads possibly not drawing as much attention from the management).

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Yes the overall amount - total BJ BR/100 = max bet.

If you opt for #2 you can limit your spread, layer in COMP COUNTING on top of card counting, and actually have a higher EV than pure card counting. The caveat is that your profits will be in the form of casino freebies of roughly 800% what the casino otherwise pays out to the ordinary 'ploppy' customers. zg

zengrifter said:

Yes the overall amount - total BJ BR/100 = max bet.

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Please tell me you're not telling poor DonR to bet $10 to $30 at +4 and above with a $3K roll? I guess spreading $15 to $30 with the same $3K roll wouldn't make a bit of difference either.

Playing every other hand in a -count effectively doubles spread?

DonR - just go back to BS and lose a little more over the next 5-6 years and have fun.

Kasi said:

Please tell me you're not telling poor DonR to bet $10 to $30 at +4 and above with a $3K roll?

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I apologize if this sounds silly, but wouldn't this (combined with adjustments to BS, based on the count) actually win me more money in the long run, compared to just flat betting and using straight BS?

Just as an example, I bet $10 at lower counts; at TC +2, I increase to $20, and at TC +4, I go with $30. Plus I use the I18 rules. I understand this is not what a true AP does, but still wouldn't it be better than BS only?

DonR said:

I apologize if this sounds silly, but wouldn't this (combined with adjustments to BS, based on the count) actually win me more money in the long run, compared to just flat betting and using straight BS?

Just as an example, I bet $10 at lower counts; at TC +2, I increase to $20, and at TC +4, I go with $30. Plus I use the I18 rules. I understand this is not what a true AP does, but still wouldn't it be better than BS only?

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Yes it is. Don since you are just a casual player you could use only a 1-3 spread instead of just flat betting bs and it will make the game a slight money maker for you. Try to play lower limit tables then once you are comfortable with counting you can start expanding on this. At counts of 0 and below bet 1 unit and at counts of +1 and above bet 3 units. This will work for an 8D S17 DAS 75% game.

Kasi said:

Playing every other hand in a -count effectively doubles spread?

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what ZG is saying is the same issue as a 2-1-4 spread in SD.
2 at neutral counts, 4 at + counts and 1 in negative counts.

or if the table min is $15, and/or your unit is $15 then when the count is negative, if you can sit out every other hand, you are now effectively betting $7.50 a hand (15/2), thus increasing your spread. from 1/2 - max bet, or 1 to 2X max bet.

to the OP. you should always be drinking coffee, sprite, soda, something, take bathroom breaks as needed. answer the cell phone, etc. i don't think as someone else suggested that they will hold your spot if you go eat, usually after 5-10 minutes they will boot you, but 5 mins is all you need for a new shoe to start. when sitting out a hand, do so after loosing 2 or 3 in a row, and say something corny if you feel self-conscious like "i'm going to sit this one out, i don't know if i can keep taking a beating like this." or mention mixing up the cards, or anything that comes to mind. sit out 2-3 rounds in a row, then play one. if you lose again, sit out again. really you just need to stall your betting as much as possible. On the rare occasion that you find 2 or 3 horrifically negative shoes in a row, then you're going to have to either keep it up, or if you think that will cause problems, then get up and leave.

SystemsTrader said:

Yes it is. Don since you are just a casual player you could use only a 1-3 spread instead of just flat betting bs and it will make the game a slight money maker for you. Try to play lower limit tables then once you are comfortable with counting you can start expanding on this. At counts of 0 and below bet 1 unit and at counts of +1 and above bet 3 units. This will work for an 8D S17 DAS 75% game.

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Thanks, SystemsTrader. As I said before, I am new to card counting and this system sounds pretty reasonable to me. It should give me a little bit of advantage over the classic flat betting/basic strategy approach. Well, I'm going to try something like this and report back to you guys.

Mimosine said:

to the OP. you should always be drinking coffee, sprite, soda, something, take bathroom breaks as needed. answer the cell phone, etc. i don't think as someone else suggested that they will hold your spot if you go eat, usually after 5-10 minutes they will boot you, but 5 mins is all you need for a new shoe to start. when sitting out a hand, do so after loosing 2 or 3 in a row, and say something corny if you feel self-conscious like "i'm going to sit this one out, i don't know if i can keep taking a beating like this." or mention mixing up the cards, or anything that comes to mind. sit out 2-3 rounds in a row, then play one. if you lose again, sit out again. really you just need to stall your betting as much as possible. On the rare occasion that you find 2 or 3 horrifically negative shoes in a row, then you're going to have to either keep it up, or if you think that will cause problems, then get up and leave.

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Good ideas...thanks, Mimosine.

DonR said:

I guess I'll have to rethink my whole approach to this matter and build a proper battle strategy. Just to clarify one thing: the bankroll is the overall amount of money that you are willing to dedicate to a series of sessions, not the amount for one session only...right?

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no hurry. be calm cool and collected lol.
there's plenty of time to lose plenty of money.
you can think of bankroll in a lot of differant ways.
what ever your amount of money that your willing to totally lose in your lifetime of play is your lifetime bankroll. (i never could come to terms with that one for myself. lmao i think it's zero in my case.)
then you can take some amount out of that lifetime bankroll to use for a trip bankroll. i guess thinking of that trip bankroll as what your willing to lose for the trip and hopefully the amount is enough to keep you able to play for the time of the trip. (again i have a problem with that one too cause i don't even wanna lose $5 lol)

A part of my problem is the fact that I'm still torn between the two options: 1 - trying to become a true AP card counter, or 2 - as you said, be just a slightly advanced casual player. Looks like I'm leaning towards option 2, because I think (and I could be completely wrong) that this option brings less stress and maybe less heat (smaller spreads possibly not drawing as much attention from the management)

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yeah you might want to figure that one out, DonR.
i think i chose option 2. with maybe a bit of option 1 in case option 2 didn't pan out well, lmao.

The fact that here in Canada I'm pretty much condemned to 8D games most likely does not help my cause.

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reality kind of sucks some times but it's good to know where you stand.

Originally Posted by DonR
Does this mean that wider spreads will compensate for no wonging, at least to some extent? It might be bad for my blood pressure, but if that's the right way to do it, so be it, I guess.

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yes, that's essentially the idea, the wider spreads compensate for 'waiting' bets made during negative counts.
as far as the blood pressure lol, that's been covered below in part....

quote: sagefr0g (previous post)
because your mind, emotions, brain, body are not geared for understanding complex probabilistic situations.
to make it worse psychologists believe that most people when presented with a series of equal but opposite rewarding and punishing events that the punishing events tend to out weigh the effect on the mind and body. so even when your in an even outcome after such a series one still tends to be miserable because of the bad element of the equation.

Click to expand...

Well stated! That's exactly where the problem is. But we are all human and it is not easy to break free from this type of reasoning.

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there is a way but you don't even try to break free from your prehistoric manner of reasoning lmao. it involves tricking your self in a non-malicious way lol. in a nut shell what you do is make your self think you are gambling while all the while playing like an AP.
you already know that with just basic strategy you can go a long way with out losing nearly as much as one might at first blush be fearful of losing. but you know it is a losing way of playing and your relatively happy with that, lmao. i think you said you've been flat betting playing basic strategy for a number of years. so when you think about it you should have developed a sense of comfort regarding at least some level of stability and a sense of how relatively safe playing basic strategy can be. note that no one has so far told you that after years of playing just basic strategy that your hopes of ever comming out ahead as an AP are hopeless.
it's kind of suprising that the point hasn't been made when one considers the attitudes of many AP's regarding the issue of 'perfect' play but still the issue hasn't been raised.

and it's been explained how wonging can be so very helpful with regard to increasing your EV and lowering you ROR. thing is with the sit and play all, your playing over time probably 70%-75% zero and negative true count hands with a relatively high ROR and lower EV albeit a little higher winrate.
and like you were asking about some low bet spread if that wasn't maybe better potential than just the flat betting. i think it would be if like others are saying you knock out most of those negative tc hands.
it's a point that most AP's will hand wave you off on that wonging is a tedious and difficult trick to pull off.
and also it's true you might come out ahead sometimes in those negative tc hands. you'll actually win about as many hands in negative counts as you will in positive counts. it's just that it's where you make your money in those positive counts from getting a higher percentage of snappers, higher percentage of sucessful double downs and sucessful insurance bets. and you'll lose a bit more money when playing zero and negative true counts.
so i guess here comes the trick...
most AP's will tell you that stop loss's and stop win points are malarkey and as far as i know they are right. thing is you can use a stop win should you be so lucky when playing in a negative count. in effect your wonging out with a profit you don't deserve. lmao.
point being if your counting and using a low bet spread for positive counts is that you can watch your bottom line. say you start out a shoe and of course it goes negative or it's zero tc (that's how those 8 deckers go) but lets say you win a unit or two. playing as many years as you have you must have noticed how it's not really so hard to get up a unit or two in relatively quick time and just as easy to lose that which you've just won and even more if you play on lol. ok, so but anyway, now your probably at your EV for a perfect counter for about an hours play (maybe after only fifteen minutes or so, maybe not lol). but by all means if your ahead in a negative count wong out dude! take a breather and enjoy the pleasure of being ahead for a moment. that's the rosey side of the equation lol. of course there's the dark side, the one where you don't get ahead a unit or two in relatively quick fashion and the count is negative. well you have a choice, play all and hope for the count to turn positive and maybe lose some units hoping or wong out. it's up to you but at least wong out of those negative counts where you get up a unit or two.
but if you decide to play through the negative count every so often or what ever well you know it's not the end of the world from your previous years of experience of being a play all basic strategy player. but still about the trick, you've already established that your not afraid to gamble a bit since you freely are willing to play for years using just basic strategy. it's only a small step to be willing to take a gamble on a raised bet when the true count is positive should you be so luck to see a positive true count.
essentially the trick to not raising your blood pressure to much is to play shorter sessions wonging out of negative counts after hopefully winning a bit and hedonistic gambling on positive counts (in proper proportion to your advantage). that way you'll be able to enjoy gambling (a mindless activity most human's enjoy) while not realizing so much the tedium, dullness and boredom while risking all of your bankroll on intelligent advantage play. don't wong out of the positive counts. lol.

Wow!...That was like a short novel . Thank you for taking the time, sagefr0g. I think I understand how important wonging out is. Pulling it off on a regular basis, when you only have 4 casinos to go to (miles apart, and usually with very limited number of available seats) is a different story. Not nearly as easy as in Vegas, for example. I'll still have to start doing it, using all the mentioned techniques (cell phones, bathroom breaks...).

There is one part of your post that I like the most:

sagefr0g said:

but still about the trick, you've already established that your not afraid to gamble a bit since you freely are willing to play for years using just basic strategy. it's only a small step to be willing to take a gamble on a raised bet when the true count is positive should you be so luck to see a positive true count.

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So, maybe there's still some hope for me :laugh: