To wong or not to wong...

DonR said:

...... I think I understand how important wonging out is. Pulling it off on a regular basis, when you only have 4 casinos to go to (miles apart, and usually with very limited number of available seats) is a different story. Not nearly as easy as in Vegas, for example. I'll still have to start doing it, using all the mentioned techniques (cell phones, bathroom breaks...).
.....

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yeah, yeah. wonging is important lol.
and i'm full with you on the strategic difficulties, been there done that.
8 decks, crowded conditions (to the point of just get a seat much less wong in on that sucker), repeated visits to where folks are gonna get to know your behavior real quick when you have just a low limited number of joints to visit.
in other words i'm not just hand waving and saying do it anyway. lmao.
it's a really problem.
thing is albeit stop win and stop loss measures are malarkey if it fits in with wonging out then at least the wonging works. to beat a dead horse stop wins and stop loss's voodoo as they are is what we feel comfortable with (ie no high blood pressure lol). fit the voodoo in with proper wonging out points and you'll be happy doing the wrong thing at the right time and the right thing at the right time. http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=100250&postcount=10
and just my humble opinion but that cell phone stuff looks awfully phoney (pun intended). i prefer to just up and walk away, maybe skip around the tables in glee for a while (with a extra unit in my pocket) and then find another seat later on to give it another shot with the concomittant trepidation that comes natural.
luck to ya.

Kasi said:

Please tell me you're not telling poor DonR to bet $10 to $30 at +4 and above with a $3K roll?

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Yes - he can bet 10-30 PLAY-ALL 6D and layer in COMP-COUNTING -or- he
can bet 10-30 and wong. Actually, with only 3000 I would say 10-2x25. zg

Kasi said:

Playing every other hand in a -count effectively doubles spread?

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Playing every-other -EV hand @ 10 would be equivalent of a $5 min bet. Right? Cape'ce? zg

DonR said:

Just as an example, I bet $10 at lower counts; at TC +2, I increase to $20, and at TC +4, I go with $30. Plus I use the I18 rules. I understand this is not what a true AP does, but still wouldn't it be better than BS only?

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Yes, about break-even. Add comp-counting to that and you're a statistical favorite. zg

Well, based on your kind advices, in the last 3 weeks I tried things differently from I was doing in the past.

Earlier, I was a strict basic strategy player, and that definitely helped me not to lose too much, but I didn't really win anything in the long run, either. So, now with counting, I18 and trying to stay out of bad counts, things may be a bit better, even though it is too early to draw conclusions.

In the last 3 weeks, I've had 6 visits to different casinos, usually betting at $10 tables, or $15, if I couldn't find $10. Thanks to your advices guys, I started wonging out, usually at around -1.5 or -2. I set this as my target, because there isn't enough tables and empty seats at these casinos to do it more frequently. I would take a bathroom break, or sometimes just sit out a few hands or the rest of the shoe, saying how I cannot take more beating after losing 2 or 3 hands in a row.

Other than wonging out, I set some stop win limits, so I would leave with being 12-15 units up.

Still not having the stomach to spread the way you guys do, I was only spreading usually between $10 and $25 or $30, a few times I went to $40.

The end result is that after 6 sessions I am up by about 50 units. In two out of these 6, I was down, once by 35 units, but managed to come back to -5 units, and the other time, I was down 15 units, but ended being up 12 units. The other 4 sessions, I was either up almost all the time, or maybe down by only 2-3 units.

The way I played reminds me of a boxer who does not have a KO punch, but rather gathers points with short jabs, lol. I am still concerned about getting caught by a counter punch that may KO me, even after being up on points. I don't know...time will tell.

The differences from what I was doing before are: counting, I18 variations and I feel, maybe the most helpful one - staying away from negative counts.

I kind of feel that I may be a slightly better player now, knowing where the count is at and adjusting my play and bets accordingly. I know it could have been only luck for me being up after these few sessions, but I sincerely hope that counting and wonging may have helped a little.

Any ideas or suggestions, guys? How do I keep on winning on points with series of short jabs, without getting caught by a KO counter punch?

zengrifter said:

Playing every-other -EV hand @ 10 would be equivalent of a $5 min bet. Right? Cape'ce? zg

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To me it would be still be a 3-1 spread except now maybe your only playing 65 hands an hour or so.

But, hey, why not bet the $10 once every 1000 hands in a -EV count, make your spread 3000-1, equivalent of a 1 cent min bet, that way with an original $10-$30 spread.

Except that now, effectively, your spread is 1.5 to 1 while only betting in + counts and playing say 25 hands an hour.

Don't you think at some point playing fewer hands in - ev counts might change what you would be betting and spreading in + counts with same orig roll?

I don't know, maybe it all works out to the same? Is betting $10-$30, but only betting the $10, say, once every thousand -EV counts instead of every other -EV count, effectively never playing a -EV count, the same as betting 1cent to $30 playing all hands with the same orig, say, $5K whatever, if such a game was available? Would EV/hd or EV/hr and risk the same in both cases?

So, playing $10 every other -EV count, even if it does "effectively" double spread, does that make the game better or worse? Per hand? Per Hour? Is SD the same?

My typical 2 AM cr*p lol.

DonR said:

.......
Any ideas or suggestions, guys? How do I keep on winning on points with series of short jabs, without getting caught by a KO counter punch?

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no really suggestions from this corner champ , specially after i got KO'd with a 18 unit smack down tonight. playing pretty much the same kind of games you mention. 8d, poor pen, crowded conditions. i'd just say it's a hard row to hoe. real hard.
this wouldn't really help you escape a KO counter punch but i'd just say keep in mind you can mix up your action some, so to speak (dance around, bob & weave, keep those hands up, lol.). no one approach has got to be set in stone. the thing is though how ever the approach and how you mix those tacts up it should help if you know just what to expect as a result of what ever approach you use. things like for what ever ramp and spread your going with, wonging or not, for so many shoes, or so many hands what do you expect as far as EV, std. dev., trip ROR and goals or no goals and probability of making them sort of thing. maybe have a number of ways you might go after the game that way you have some decision making opportunities that might turn into an avenue of advantage or way of protecting your self.
what ever just don't do what i did tonight. fine to play into a slightly positive count, nail a snapper on a raised bet and then fail to wong out when the count tanks and end up losing the benifit of the snapper and even more.

Sage, wise one

sagefr0g said:

no really suggestions from this corner champ , specially after i got KO'd with a 18 unit smack down tonight. playing pretty much the same kind of games you mention. 8d, poor pen, crowded conditions. i'd just say it's a hard row to hoe. real hard.
this wouldn't really help you escape a KO counter punch but i'd just say keep in mind you can mix up your action some, so to speak (dance around, bob & weave, keep those hands up, lol.). no one approach has got to be set in stone. the thing is though how ever the approach and how you mix those tacts up it should help if you know just what to expect as a result of what ever approach you use. things like for what ever ramp and spread your going with, wonging or not, for so many shoes, or so many hands what do you expect as far as EV, std. dev., trip ROR and goals or no goals and probability of making them sort of thing. maybe have a number of ways you might go after the game that way you have some decision making opportunities that might turn into an avenue of advantage or way of protecting your self.
what ever just don't do what i did tonight. fine to play into a slightly positive count, nail a snapper on a raised bet and then fail to wong out when the count tanks and end up losing the benifit of the snapper and even more.

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I have a prophecy that soon you will be sitting at tables with much better conditions and far fewer decks:grin:

CP

fearsome, stealthy one

creeping panther said:

I have a prophecy that soon you will be sitting at tables with much better conditions and far fewer decks:grin:

CP

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that's right isn't it!
may i just have the strength to not mess even that up.
what ever it's gonna be way cool.

sagefr0g said:

dance around, bob & weave, keep those hands up

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That is exactly what I'm trying to do, hehe. Wonging out at negative counts is obviously the right thing to do...thanks for pointing that out. Now, if I can keep those hands up all the time, maybe I can win on points :laugh:

DonR said:

That is exactly what I'm trying to do, hehe. Wonging out at negative counts is obviously the right thing to do...thanks for pointing that out. Now, if I can keep those hands up all the time, maybe I can win on points :laugh:

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yeah that's maybe a good point, like you might play a lot of time, finally you realize some advantage and you realize some ev, next thing you know the count tanks and maybe you say awe hell and play it through an wham there goes what took you all that time to build up. gone in the twinkling of an eye just from being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
but yeah keep those hands up it's not how much you win or lose it's how you play the game. easy for the corner man to say.:laugh:

A little bit more on wonging out. Do you guys wong out immediately, as soon as the count reaches your setpoint (-1, -2, maybe even zero, or whatever), or do you wait for another couple of hands?

The reason I'm asking is that just today I actually had a pretty good shoe, with TC going down like crazy from the very start. I joined a table, with the beginning of a new shoe, and very soon (within two hands) the TC reached -1. That would normally be a sign for me to wong out, but I didn't really feel like it, after only a couple of hands dealt. So, I stayed, the TC was going down, but the table was winning, because of all the big cards coming, and the dealer busting a lot. So, I kept playing another 6 or 7 hands, waiting to lose a couple, before I wong out. However, I was winning them all, and finally with TC at -4, or lower, I lost two in a row, and wonged out for the rest of the shoe. Made 12 units, with some splits and double downs, in the meantime.

If I wonged at TC -1 (which I try to do, most of the time), I would have missed winning these hands, where all these big cards were being dealt. So, back to my original question: is it wise to play a couple of hands more, when the TC reaches the point, which is normally your wong out setpoint, having in mind that you may be in the middle of a streak of high cards coming out? Does this make any sense?

You got lucky, that's all. The odds were against you.

In general, I hang around for a little while during negative counts when the place is busy and I know I can't wong in for a while. But if it's deeply negative (-2 or so) I'm outta there.

johndoe said:

You got lucky, that's all. The odds were against you.

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I know, and that's why I usually try to get out at around -1, or -1.5. My point was only whether I should get out right away, as soon as the TC hits those values, or maybe play another hand or two, and only if and when I lose those, with the TC still going down, then leave.

What happened to me today, in this shoe, was that I was winning, as the count was going south (actually, almost everybody at the table was winning). Eventually, I wonged out at -4, but only after I lost 2 hands. In the meantime, I made much more, than I lost in those 2 hands.

Under usual circumstances, I would have left pretty much right away at -1, or so, but as I mentioned, it was a new shoe, I won a couple of hands, with all the high cards coming out, and it would have been pretty strange to leave after only a couple oh hands dealt, especially since I won them.

I felt like I was riding a wave of high cards, as the count was going lower and lower, and winning those hands. And when I finally pulled the trigger and took my bathroom break, because I lost 2 in a row, I was already up. Now, had I continued to play at those very negative counts, I am pretty sure that would have been a huge mistake.

Long story short, if you are winning while the count is going lower and lower (because you are getting those high cards), is it maybe wise to wait for a couple of losing hands, before you wong out?

DonR said:

Long story short, if you are winning while the count is going lower and lower (because you are getting those high cards), is it maybe wise to wait for a couple of losing hands, before you wong out?

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long answer short: no, it is not wise to stick around. you never know when a streak of high cards will continue or stop. win or lose, your expected value is still negative. since your expected value IS NEGATIVE in these counts, you will lose fractions of each of these bets in the long run. so think of it as handing over a fraction of your bet for every additional round you play (even if you see yourself winning this time). why hand over "cash" when you could get up from the table and find a positive shoe?

DonR said:

Long story short, if you are winning while the count is going lower and lower (because you are getting those high cards), is it maybe wise to wait for a couple of losing hands, before you wong out?

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If I won a few big hands at a high count, and the count drops below my Wongout point, I will sometimes scale back my bet and wait for a loss to exit. But I don't do it because I want to keep winning - I do it because I think it makes my Wonging a little less obvious.

Honestly, though, usually I don't care enough, and I'll just leave immediately when the count drops.

callipygian said:

...I do it because I think it makes my Wonging a little less obvious.

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Couldn't agree more! It's a new shoe, only two or three hands have been dealt, you've won them all, but the TC is now -1 or -2 already. Who gets up and leaves then? An ordinary gambler...I don't think so. A card counter...more likely.