sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
there you go, thanks a lot k_c.k_c said:It's very easy to figure the probability of any number of low cards in a row being dealt from a give shoe composition. If starting comp is full 6 deck shoe, prob of 1 low card in a row is 120/312. Prob of 2 low cards in a row is 120/312*119/311. Prob of 3 low cards in a row is 120/312*119/311*118/319.....etc.
The probability that some number of low cards in a row will be dealt at some point in a shoe given the shoe will be dealt to a pre-determined pen is a harder problem. It would be very easy to sim, though. Just shuffle up the cards and deal shoe after shoe and look at the cards up to the given pen, recording the number of times the criteria is met and keep track of the number of shoes dealt. You could record when 10 or more low cards in a row appeared or when exactly 10 cards in a row appeared or whatever.Code:Prob of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 low cards (2-6, rank ignored) in a row being drawn from a full shoe: 1 .3846154 2 .147168 3 5.601877E-02 4 2.121099E-02 5 7.988555E-03 6 2.992456E-03 7 1.114836E-03 8 4.130377E-04 9 1.521718E-04 10 5.574611E-05 Prob of 10 low cards in a row = .00005574611 = 1/17938.47
so i made an excel shuffler and got it to indicate when five low cards present in a row sort of thing. if zero show you get zero, if one appears you got a five low card in a row at some depth, sort of thing.
now all i gotta do is try and figure out a way for it to count how many shuffles it takes to ring up a five low cards in a row at some depth.:whip:
probably i'll have to use a macro to get excel to keep track of numbers of shoes and the changing number or cards in a row presentations.
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