This one casino is quite smart. They're sending me match play offers that are over my max bet by 50% probably in the attempt to get me to risk losing a large amount of money to them. They won't allow you to place it on the various numbers on the roulette table or allow you to split up the matchplay on a craps table. Would you guys still risk it in BJ at a max bet situation or do you have any suggestions as to what I could do to make it less risky? I was thinking of placing it on red in roulette and the money on black to give me a high chance of at least pushing but I was curious to hear what you guys think?
smart casino
- Thread starter Thunder
- Start date
Self hedging probably carries a non trivial risk of making that the last matchplay the casino offers you. If you're going to hedge, I'd use another person. Pass/don't pass in craps is probably the least conspicuous.
If baccarat and craps are available, then betting red/black on a double zero roulette table is just needlessly exposing yourself to a higher house edge.
If baccarat and craps are available, then betting red/black on a double zero roulette table is just needlessly exposing yourself to a higher house edge.
C'mon, if you have a $1000 match play coupon you can cash it out for $900 if it is a multi use coupon.
You play Baccarat and bet the coupon and $1000 on Player and $2000 on Banker. If Player keeps on coming up you put your $2000 win on Banker again. When Banker comes up you get $1900 so you net $900.
If it is a single bet coupon it is worth at least $425. You bet coupon and $1000 on Banker and $1500 on player. If Player comes up you win net $500. If Banker comes up you win $1500 less 5% i.e. $1425 i.e. net $425.
You play Baccarat and bet the coupon and $1000 on Player and $2000 on Banker. If Player keeps on coming up you put your $2000 win on Banker again. When Banker comes up you get $1900 so you net $900.
If it is a single bet coupon it is worth at least $425. You bet coupon and $1000 on Banker and $1500 on player. If Player comes up you win net $500. If Banker comes up you win $1500 less 5% i.e. $1425 i.e. net $425.
Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
Why are you worried about decreasing the risk of losing the bet? Unless it's far higher than your max bet (where is this place and how do I get on their mailing list?), losing the bet plus a MP shouldn't be more painful than losing a max bet, especially since your edge on the wager is so high. If I were you, I'd opt for maximizing my expectation. Since it's likely your standard-issue, even-money-only MP, the pass line in craps or player in baccarat are both good options.
Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
Shad has a point, but if I may reiterate my opinion, I think you should never bet anything less than the maximum value of a coupon that provides you with a substantial edge. How much higher than your max bet are we talking? My guess is that you're bankrolled for the risk of the wager, given the edge that the coupon presents.
Once, while in Houston for a show, I came across a MP coupon for up to $1,000. It was for a small casino on Lake Charles, a few hours away. I tried to talk my friends into doing a one shot roadtrip with each of us putting up $250 and leaving after the one play. While it was a great deal, I was not about to bet $1,000 on a hand, even with the reward of $2,000. Losing that much on a hand would make me ill.
Your edge on the match play, assuming you do the pass line on craps, is around 48% or so.
You should be willing to bet a substantial amount of your bankroll on an edge that large.
Even being very very conservative, I would say betting 10% of your bankroll on this would be more then acceptable.
You said the match play is 50% higher then your max bet. Even with full info blackjack hole card play with favorable rules and playing without discretion your edge is ~13%.
I could understand if the match play was 10 times your max bet, but 50%? Come on, if you feel the need to waste money hedging this match play, stop APing. Plus the idea of needing a team mate to do a match play is ridiculous, and if you go there and bet pass and no pass by yourself, that's the kind of attention you don't need to be putting on yourself.
Even if I had 2 coupons and they allowed me to use both (1 on pass/no pass) for the same roll, I wouldn't do it. I'd rather take the (minor) variance then do highly suspicious things that nobody else does. I've never seen a civilian do something like that to "cash out" a match play, maybe except for some degenerate alcoholic who got the coupon out of a newspaper, but they're probably not smart enough to realize they can do it risk free, and that's not the kind of image you want to be building for yourself.
You should be willing to bet a substantial amount of your bankroll on an edge that large.
Even being very very conservative, I would say betting 10% of your bankroll on this would be more then acceptable.
You said the match play is 50% higher then your max bet. Even with full info blackjack hole card play with favorable rules and playing without discretion your edge is ~13%.
I could understand if the match play was 10 times your max bet, but 50%? Come on, if you feel the need to waste money hedging this match play, stop APing. Plus the idea of needing a team mate to do a match play is ridiculous, and if you go there and bet pass and no pass by yourself, that's the kind of attention you don't need to be putting on yourself.
Even if I had 2 coupons and they allowed me to use both (1 on pass/no pass) for the same roll, I wouldn't do it. I'd rather take the (minor) variance then do highly suspicious things that nobody else does. I've never seen a civilian do something like that to "cash out" a match play, maybe except for some degenerate alcoholic who got the coupon out of a newspaper, but they're probably not smart enough to realize they can do it risk free, and that's not the kind of image you want to be building for yourself.
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
Wasted Time?
If you are taking time to use it on other games, that has an opportunity cost because you are not playing your money making game. Your bj bank can afford to play it on a medium advantage. In a session you may not get a max bet opportunity. One would want to play it rather quickly in a session in case one is 86d and then can't use it. It may get ugly if you place a large match play on top of a series of large winning bets, you may trigger a call upstairs.
The casino already has restrictions as far as other games. I would not want to stumble into those situations.
I would just play it on a TC2 to TC3.
:joker::whip:
If you are taking time to use it on other games, that has an opportunity cost because you are not playing your money making game. Your bj bank can afford to play it on a medium advantage. In a session you may not get a max bet opportunity. One would want to play it rather quickly in a session in case one is 86d and then can't use it. It may get ugly if you place a large match play on top of a series of large winning bets, you may trigger a call upstairs.
The casino already has restrictions as far as other games. I would not want to stumble into those situations.
I would just play it on a TC2 to TC3.
:joker::whip:
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Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
Pass line. Often posted, still required reading:
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
Real World vs Book World
for a solo player playing the coupon during a positve expectation bj hand has these advantages:
1. No time lost earning bj ev while playing with matchplay.
2. One has the additional ev for the coupon playing it during a positive expectation hand.
These differences can add up to several dollars depending on one's bj stakes/rules vs playing the match play on a negative expectation game.
Now, if there are bj restrictions that can change things.
If one is concerned about a back off upon next session then quickly playing it on another game may be worthwhile.
It seems to be a bj earned coupon; they seem to want it used playing bj, why push it.
:joker::whip:
for a solo player playing the coupon during a positve expectation bj hand has these advantages:
1. No time lost earning bj ev while playing with matchplay.
2. One has the additional ev for the coupon playing it during a positive expectation hand.
These differences can add up to several dollars depending on one's bj stakes/rules vs playing the match play on a negative expectation game.
Now, if there are bj restrictions that can change things.
If one is concerned about a back off upon next session then quickly playing it on another game may be worthwhile.
It seems to be a bj earned coupon; they seem to want it used playing bj, why push it.
:joker::whip:
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The casino does not care where you use the match play.
Personally I redeem match plays at craps. I generally hole card so I have no interest in messing around with promo stuff when I'm APing.
If you have enough heat on you where the casino is watching where you're using your match plays, you have big problems already.
Personally I redeem match plays at craps. I generally hole card so I have no interest in messing around with promo stuff when I'm APing.
If you have enough heat on you where the casino is watching where you're using your match plays, you have big problems already.
Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
Besides, how long does it take to redeem a MP on craps? I think the most time I've ever spend cashing a MP on the pass line has been 2 minutes.
Cardcounter
Well-Known Member
Bet the max play to its full value.
If you play the match play on roulette and bet one side red and one side black there is still the possibility that green hits and wipes out both bets. Now you are out twice as much as you want. Just remember when you are making a max bet in blackjack without a coupon the best that you can hope for is to be a 2% money favorite. When you have a coupon like a matchplay you are like a 48% money favorite even from the start of the deck. Betting a $100 with a $100 matchplay is way less risky than betting $50 twice with no matchplay. A lot of times they break up the match plays into smaller coupons that you can use over more hands. Always max out your match play never bet more or less than the match play. If you lose you get the full value of the match play and if you win you are collecting the money. If you don't have the balls to risk the money when you have the match play you should quit gambling or get somebody to fund the money you don't want to risk.
If you play the match play on roulette and bet one side red and one side black there is still the possibility that green hits and wipes out both bets. Now you are out twice as much as you want. Just remember when you are making a max bet in blackjack without a coupon the best that you can hope for is to be a 2% money favorite. When you have a coupon like a matchplay you are like a 48% money favorite even from the start of the deck. Betting a $100 with a $100 matchplay is way less risky than betting $50 twice with no matchplay. A lot of times they break up the match plays into smaller coupons that you can use over more hands. Always max out your match play never bet more or less than the match play. If you lose you get the full value of the match play and if you win you are collecting the money. If you don't have the balls to risk the money when you have the match play you should quit gambling or get somebody to fund the money you don't want to risk.
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
It's Scenario Dependent
If the match play is very large in relation to your bank; more specifically your bets, then looking for a more certain payback may be more important. However, I think this scenario would be very rare.
:joker::whip:
If it's a $10 match play and you have a high bj ev you are probably better off not taking any time away from bj.Lonesome Gambler said:
If the match play is very large in relation to your bank; more specifically your bets, then looking for a more certain payback may be more important. However, I think this scenario would be very rare.
:joker::whip:
Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
Fair enough, but in this case, the MP is higher than Thunder's max bet at BJ.