heh, heh looks like a perfect time to jump in here and really muddy the waters
let no one think that i'm advising the approach thats described. also the discussion is not meant go against Bojack or RJT's statements regarding precision and perfection. so again consider my earlier post...
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=33969&postcount=26
and consider the ideas i've attempted to put forth below:
been on a blackjack sabbatical following a negative fluctuation that occurred at the same time that i had just increased my bet spread and max bet.
have been thinking a lot about blackjack advantage play and experimenting with a new approach. an approach that i suspect most on this forum shall find lacking in merit.
for lack of a better name i'll just call the approach that i've been experimenting with fuzzy counting. with that monicer in mind consider the excerpt below:
<<<excerpt from ZenGrifter interview>>>
You’ve often stated that precise index numbers are not important.
Can you explain why you feel that way?
While other experts emphasize the top 20 or so index plays, I advocate the use of 60+ indices, and
personally utilize 80+ with my Zen count. The endlessly debated point I’ve been making is that socalled
precision index numbers are a “myth” and offer no significant added gain over extremerounded
numbers! Whether one uses an index “granularity-scale” of 0-1-2-3-4-5-6 or 0-2-4-6 or
even 0-3-6 it will make absolutely no difference in actual casino play spanning three million hands,
which is ten years of full time play. Time is money and ‘extreme-rounded’ index numbers can be
deployed faster in real casino conditions. You gain much more in ease and resultant speed than
you lose in lost precision. This has been pointed out previously by Snyder in his Hi-Lo Lite and
True Edge Zen, in Ken Fuchs’ Hi-Lo Express, in George C’s Extreme Rounded Zen, and by John
Imming, who developed the Universal Blackjack Engine and simulated billions of hands to prove
this very point.
It seems you have broken away from the card counter “orthodoxy” over this and the
related use of intuition?
The hit-stand-double index for basic strategy departure is a wide-border “coin-toss” zone of
perhaps two digits, plus or minus. Therefore, I encourage the use of one’s intuition when the
decision is close. If decision by coin-toss will not reduce our effectiveness for these ever-frequent
wide-border decisions, does it not stand to reason that we can learn to increasingly utilize the
‘meta-awareness’ faculties of our brain and “go with the force,” so to speak, to potentially obtain a
subjective improvement over raw statistical expectation?
Consider for example, that while our conscious mind may not be aware of that extra 4 or 5 still
remaining in the deck, and not evident by our true count of +1 when we face 16 vs. 10, modern
science tells us that our brain did notice the hit-not-stand situation, despite a true count indication
to the contrary.
I once debated this issue with Don Schlesinger, who labeled my approach “sloppy, with no
inherent advantage over precise.” I countered that if he was to replace “sloppy” with “fuzzy,” as in
what computer science calls ‘fuzzy-logic,’ I would opt for the latter.
To summarize, one should strive for 60+ indices, but use a coarser granularity scale of two to four
digits wide, individually tailored for ‘pattern-recognition’ ease. For example, if your index for 12 vs.
2 and 12 vs. 3 is +4 and +2 respectively, you can re-label both at +3 so they’re easier to remember
and faster to utilize. Or by the same token, all indices of -1,0, and +1 can be rounded to 0, and so
<<< end excerpt from ZenGrifter interview>>>
so here is the fuzzy counting approach and thoughts about it that i'm referring to.
it's for six deck play at a near full table. the idea is to employ perfect basic strategy and 'fuzzy' illustrious 18 departures. additionally the idea is to watch the table each round to see which way the round affected the 'percieved' negativity or positiveness of the remaining pack so as to arrive at a 'fuzzy true count'. no actual number is held in mind, just the awareness if the round resulted in a general positive slant for the running count or possibly a true count integral increase. of course the number of decks left in play are kept in mind for these considerations. if the 'fuzzy true goes negative' the rule is to leave the table or sit out for the remaining pack to go back to either positive or at least a non-negative bias. as each round proceeds the relative 'strength' or 'weakness' of the positivity of the remaining pack is 'judged'. part of how this strength or weakness is judged is by the visual intensity of the comming out of the low cards and high cards for a given round. was the round biased way in favor of low cards presenting, high cards presenting or was it more even? then the cummulative results are considered as the next round goes by. so for example a round where in the remaining pack is obviously negatively biased may merit a unit bet increase. and if the next round the remaining pack becomes even more 'significantly 'positively biased there is merit for an even higher number of units to be bet.
the other thing is i'm applying is a more aggressive bet spread. i suppose i end up betting more units this way than i would with a strict bet spread and an accurate true count system such as hi/lo. the idea is though that the actual edge realized even in the rare high true counts such as plus four or plus five is relatively small when you are fortunate enough to encounter it. but the lower edge is more frequent giving you more opportunities to get the money out there. the negative fluctuation experienced may be greater but the edge being there it seems should turn out winner over all.
so if all of the above isn't radical enough the crowning touch is the idea of actually putting forth some thought into the process and heaven forbid even some intuition. i've practiced and played under real casino conditions using the precise orthodox methods advised by experts for nearly two years. i've read and understood the books and disertations of many of the experts. now i intend to use that understanding and experience in a thoughtful manner. my contention is that a player thinking on his feet from the perspective of a knowledge of the expertise in the field holds the potential for advantage that can't be measured by simulation.while employing the methods described above.