Waiting for a down

K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
the big question is of course when. and that is what we can't know lol.
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We can't know when - all we can do is measure the liklihood of finishing wherever over whatever period of time. So, if it's extremely rare maybe we are doing something wrong because the math says it's just too unlikely.

So the next 6 months results will tend to average the same as the next 1000 6 month periods. All we know for sure is that 68% of the time the results will be within one stan dev of EV, 95.5% of the time within 2 stan dev, etc. It's a system of random variables after all acting under a set of rules and will behave as the math says. What amazes me is that it can be figured out. You can't change the laws of probability.

Which is actually a good thing because it also means you will eventually win with a certain liklihood lol.

So when you increased your spread with your higher roll maybe losing like that was a rare event or maybe it was highly likely. But at least it's measurable. So maybe after some brutal losing streak, being able to measure the liklihood of experiencing that brutal streak may give you some comfort be cause it's only going to happen once every 500 times and after all was to be expected eventually.

From something you said recently I got the idea you turned a very small roll into a much larger one, maybe perhaps being shot in the ass with luck lol. But betting proportionally to that after you won a bunch might have been a litltle bold. Pure speculation mind you lol.
 
D

Dopple

Well-Known Member
No giant win but enough to get my mind popping about this game.

How about this for an idea.

If your bankroll increases go full or double kelly until you fall back down to your original br or you make more money.

Anything over $500 on a trip is big for me for now.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Dopple said:
No giant win but enough to get my mind popping about this game.

How about this for an idea.

If your bankroll increases go full or double kelly until you fall back down to your original br or you make more money.

Anything over $500 on a trip is big for me for now.
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Is that a $500 trip bankroll? A $500 win? Both lol? Would you even know, as a starting point, how much roll you'd need to bet full or double Kelly for the game you anticipate playing?

You can only figure out stuff one situation at a time lol.

Maybe before worrying about your winnings, what's your starting plan and what do you expect from it lol?
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
........
So when you increased your spread with your higher roll maybe losing like that was a rare event or maybe it was highly likely. But at least it's measurable. So maybe after some brutal losing streak, being able to measure the liklihood of experiencing that brutal streak may give you some comfort be cause it's only going to happen once every 500 times and after all was to be expected eventually.
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i think it was a lot of things going on over time to where the loss was a combination of a rare event and a highly likely one. but for sure my EV should have been around $2-$5 per hour and for the two years my results were way above that at least $15 - $30 per hour roughly. and that was pretty much just using a 1-8 spread. but yeah i should look into the computation of the likilihood of my hitting that brutal streak. i remmember for a few wrong things that i was playing tired and with some uncertainty about the accuracy of my counts and that i had some steaming episodes during that short brutal period. so those alone i'd think could put me in the highly likely to suffer a real bad beat area and at the same time i'd not experienced a bad beat like that in two years of putting in a fairly significant number of hours of play so that i should of been expecting a rare bad beat event as well. lol the confluence of two likely train wrecks comming together.
Kasi said:
From something you said recently I got the idea you turned a very small roll into a much larger one, maybe perhaps being shot in the ass with luck lol. But betting proportionally to that after you won a bunch might have been a litltle bold. Pure speculation mind you lol.
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well maybe if i was playing a perfect game not so bold. but yeah considering what ever my skill level was (which i think wasn't so great) then yep it probably was bold, much bolder than i believed it to be at the time. i guess i got to being over confident as a result of the good results i was having. after the pride commeth the fall as they say lol.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Dopple said:
No giant win but enough to get my mind popping about this game.

How about this for an idea.

If your bankroll increases go full or double kelly until you fall back down to your original br or you make more money.

Anything over $500 on a trip is big for me for now.
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i kind of like that idea in that you are at least staying within the proper parameters for betting. even if full kelly or maybe even double kelly might be pushing the envelope. but of course we are only speculating about what would be purely a gamble here i guess.
but what would you do if say instead of being comming off a big win say you were comming off a big loss? :eek:
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
i think it was a lot of things going on over time to where the loss was a combination of a rare event and a highly likely one. but for sure my EV should have been around $2-$5 per hour and for the two years my results were way above that at least $15 - $30 per hour roughly. and that was pretty much just using a 1-8 spread. but yeah i should look into the computation of the likilihood of my hitting that brutal streak.....i guess i got to being over confident as a result of the good results i was having. after the pride commeth the fall as they say lol.
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See, it seems to me maybe lol, that the more rare event might be winning 15 times EV over a 2 year period. Was that you were saying lol? Of course, 2 years could mean 2 hands or 700,000 lol. On the other hand, maybe you only won 3 times EV (2 to 30 vs 5 to 15 lol). Would, and I'm making this up now lol, had you determined that after 2 years exceeding EV by a factor of 15 might have been such an unlikely occurrence when by measured just how many stan dev it deviated that perhaps you really weren't playing to any system in a disciplined way and in fact only the luck of winning some big bets were why you won so much?

And did losing that 1/7 roll happen in an hour or a hundred kind of thing? Did you maybe change min bet too while also going 1-10? Did you steam, etc? If you determined that event was within 1 or 2 stan dev of EV why/if would that be enough to lose faith in your overall system? If it was 5 stan dev from EV, yeah, chances good it's time to go back to the drawing boards.

It doesn't matter - the point is, well, maybe not for the unsimmable FC system lol, but even then assume BS as worst case maybe, it's not that hard a calculation for anyone to make to at least give some clue. Figure the formula out once, put it in a spreadsheet, and all you have to do is type in different EV's and SD's and, presto, you have it.

Hey, at least when I was losing my ass on the internet at a particular casino playing a particular game years ago, I knew, not that maybe it helped a whole lot but maybe a little, that I was 3.7+ stan dev negative from expected, maybe a 1 in 15000ish kind of thing, but it was over almost 8000 hands. Still, less than 4 SD, my personal threshold when I think someone's maybe rigging the deck. Unbelievably painful to experience. For months I'd just laugh and say " oh no I only have a 20". Still made money what with bonuses, bet variation, mostly bonuses of course, etc, and all lol but that wasn't the point. I knew a flat-betting BS player was 3.7 SD down after 8000 hands.

15000 hands or so later, as I recall - have to look it up, results were within 1 stan dev.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
See, it seems to me maybe lol, that the more rare event might be winning 15 times EV over a 2 year period. Was that you were saying lol? Of course, 2 years could mean 2 hands or 700,000 lol. On the other hand, maybe you only won 3 times EV (2 to 30 vs 5 to 15 lol). Would, and I'm making this up now lol, had you determined that after 2 years exceeding EV by a factor of 15 might have been such an unlikely occurrence when by measured just how many stan dev it deviated that perhaps you really weren't playing to any system in a disciplined way and in fact only the luck of winning some big bets were why you won so much?

And did losing that 1/7 roll happen in an hour or a hundred kind of thing? Did you maybe change min bet too while also going 1-10? Did you steam, etc? If you determined that event was within 1 or 2 stan dev of EV why/if would that be enough to lose faith in your overall system? If it was 5 stan dev from EV, yeah, chances good it's time to go back to the drawing boards.

It doesn't matter - the point is, well, maybe not for the unsimmable FC system lol, but even then assume BS as worst case maybe, it's not that hard a calculation for anyone to make to at least give some clue. Figure the formula out once, put it in a spreadsheet, and all you have to do is type in different EV's and SD's and, presto, you have it.

Hey, at least when I was losing my ass on the internet at a particular casino playing a particular game years ago, I knew, not that maybe it helped a whole lot but maybe a little, that I was 3.7+ stan dev negative from expected, maybe a 1 in 15000ish kind of thing, but it was over almost 8000 hands. Still, less than 4 SD, my personal threshold when I think someone's maybe rigging the deck. Unbelievably painful to experience. For months I'd just laugh and say " oh no I only have a 20". Still made money what with bonuses, bet variation, mostly bonuses of course, etc, and all lol but that wasn't the point. I knew a flat-betting BS player was 3.7 SD down after 8000 hands.

15000 hands or so later, as I recall - have to look it up, results were within 1 stan dev.
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those are good points and i never have put the maths to those bad beat days i refer to. well i just have this little graph (bankroll vs sessions) to where i can just see the biggest drop of them all was this particular set of 'unfortunate' sessions.
but yeah i should do that. going to have to set up my own custom little spread sheet. i have a lot of trip data i could feed it. on the graph right near the end where i was at the highest point is when i went from 1-8 to 1-10 and the big dip hit.
 

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Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
Dopple said:
If your bankroll increases go full or double kelly until you fall back down to your original br or you make more money.
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If you play double Kelly and overbet your advantage by a factor of 2 then your lifetime RoR is 100%. That's why it is so important to not overbet your bankroll. Betting double Kelly will almost guarantee that you will fall back down to your original BR at some point. Even though you have an advantage, the house has the edge.

-Sonny-
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
If you play double Kelly and overbet your advantage by a factor of 2 then your lifetime RoR is 100%. That's why it is so important to not overbet your bankroll. Betting double Kelly will almost guarantee that you will fall back down to your original BR at some point. Even though you have an advantage, the house has the edge.

-Sonny-
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oops i was thinking he was talking half kelly. like going from 1/3 kelly to 1/2 kelly.
i remmember Snyder in Blackbelt in Blackjack writing about keeping your betting level consistant. so i don't know is there a problem with changing your bet levels even if you stay within optimal parameters?
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
but yeah i should do that. going to have to set up my own custom little spread sheet. i have a lot of trip data i could feed it. on the graph right near the end where i was at the highest point is when i went from 1-8 to 1-10 and the big dip hit.
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If you think I can help let me know - looks like all you lost was a little of your winnings from original roll.

Of course if you were betting to a different roll, it's a whole new ball game!
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
If you think I can help let me know - looks like all you lost was a little of your winnings from original roll.

Of course if you were betting to a different roll, it's a whole new ball game!
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sort of stuck on trying to decide just what sort of information i'd want the spread sheet to produce. something multi-faceted would be cool. but yes i'm sure i could use help when trying to figure out what functions to set up. thank you and i will really appreciate the help.
have you seen Sonny's bet spread spread sheet? it's a jewel. i know i want to incorporate that into it.
yep it was loss from the original roll. thankfully. still smarted something fierce though.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
spread sheet problem

Kasi said:
If you think I can help let me know - .....
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well here is a dumb one i'm working on. what i shooting for is to have a graphical physical representation of color coded high & low cards that have their tags imbeded. then i want to 'shuffle' the pack to where i can look at the colored resulting pack and guess what the true count is at various points.
i got it to where it gives the true count at various points. then i tryed to put a randbetween() function in the tiny cells above the color coded card representations. that way i intended to sort the whole mess and it would be as if a random shuffle had occured. then i could look at the colored cards and try and guess the true count against the know calculated true count.
problem is when i put the randbetween() function into the 312 tiny cells above the card representations that the ranbetween() function refuses to work. i can't figure out why the randbetween() functions wont work. :confused:
 

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sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
hmmph well what do ya know it worked...
turns out the randbetween() function was working. it was just that the cells were so small that the resultant numbers were not visible. lol
but the tc's aren't adding up right..... that should be easy to fix.
 

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D

Dopple

Well-Known Member
Well I am not waiting anymore.

In the first hour of my trip I hit a hot 6d shoe and pulled in a fast $380 betting 10-50 w/ alot of doubling and splitting. This was at RT 66 in Albuquerque.

Later that I night I pulled in another $170 at the Santa Ana Star but dropped about $600 at the Isleta. I was steaming and the boss did not appreciate my 5-50 spread. Plenty of open tables though.

The fault is all mine jumping to my max bet of 2x35 at counts as low as about 7. When you have a rc of 50 it sounds so good but that is only about 7tc with 3.5 decks left.

Rt 66 seems to count their money rack after every hand. They sit there and eyeball your stack and really sweat the money. Crowded conditions.

Now I am waiting for an up.
 
creeping panther

creeping panther

Banned
My 2 cents

Keep the same bet spread and unit size until you have 10 times the bank
you started with. Then proceed with caution.

You do not want to lose in one session what you won in the last 5...that tends to rock one's world.

Creeping Panther

"Strength And Honor"
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g;71111 have you seen Sonny's bet spread spread sheet? it's a jewel. i know i want to incorporate that into it. .[/QUOTE said:
No I don't think I have but I'd like too lol. Is it somewhere?

I'll have to see if my stuff works in Excel lol. Give me a day or so lol.

But, yeah, feel free to PM me with any Q's.
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