fuzzy count

sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
from:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=79336&postcount=68
aslan said:
I suppose this could go on forever...so on to something new... :laugh:

When you finally get a handle on fuzzy counting, will you still call it fuzzy counting? :confused:
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no danger in that. don't think i'll ever get a handle on it. maybe reach some skill level if you wanna call it that but i guess by it's nature or the idea of it you can't really get a handle on it.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
lol i thought skill is the whole idea. like shooting a three pointer or turning music notes into music. some kind of pipe dream i guess lol. but i dunno maybe instinct does play a role in all that . :confused:
like this cat. can't even tie his own shoes but wow:
http://60minutes.yahoo.com/segment/158/derek (Archive copy)
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Just seems to me that if it's skill, then it can be acquired, improved and finally mastered, to wit, fuzzy becomes defuzzified and no longer fuzzy, if you get my drift. If on the other hand, like that fisher picture you show, it's instinct...well that opens up a whole new array of possibilities. How about the pianist who can't read music? But from the age of 3 he can sit down and play beautifully. What's that? Do we all have the prodigy hidden somewhere in us? How can we release it? Can we just unconsciously see counting and other clues without engaging our conscious minds so that we know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em? The subconscious is constantly observing, constantly working...maybe it can count and do all kinds of other mental and mathematical gymnastics that we never dreamed of. Maybe we all know when to bet high but the problem is getting in touch with out inner selves so that we can convert that knowledge into action.

It would certainly explain how this kid sitting next to me bets at all the wrong times and quickly runs a few hundred up to six thousand. He hits on seventeen and catches a four. He doubles down on seven against a dealer upcard six and the dealer busts, while he catches a five. His friends tell me that he just sold his computer business for over five hundred million. Money they say is attracted to money. Maybe it's more than what meets the eye.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Just seems to me that if it's skill, then it can be acquired, improved and finally mastered, to wit, fuzzy becomes defuzzified and no longer fuzzy, if you get my drift. If on the other hand, like that fisher picture you show, it's instinct...well that opens up a whole new array of possibilities. How about the pianist who can't read music? But from the age of 3 he can sit down and play beautifully. What's that? Do we all have the prodigy hidden somewhere in us? How can we release it? Can we just unconsciously see counting and other clues without engaging our conscious minds so that we know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em? The subconscious is constantly observing, constantly working...maybe it can count and do all kinds of other mental and mathematical gymnastics that we never dreamed of. Maybe we all know when to bet high but the problem is getting in touch with out inner selves so that we can convert that knowledge into action.

It would certainly explain how this kid sitting next to me bets at all the wrong times and quickly runs a few hundred up to six thousand. He hits on seventeen and catches a four. He doubles down on seven against a dealer upcard six and the dealer busts, while he catches a five. His friends tell me that he just sold his computer business for over five hundred million. Money they say is attracted to money. Maybe it's more than what meets the eye.
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damm aslan we musta been at the same table and didn't even know it. i seen that kid do all that too! lol. i was sitting right next to him. :rolleyes:
but yes what your talking about is i think on a way differant level than what i'm thinkin of when i imagine this fuzzy count thing. but i guess since i don't understand those phenomenon you refer to that it's not out of the realm of possibility that factors like that could be operating. just doesn't seem to have very consistent positive results when i try it lol. but the way i'm thinking of this fuzzy count idea is at this point really just card watching and if said card watcher has in the past been a counter and understands an appropriate card counting game plan then maybe you try and through on some level by the understanding of what you've seen take and try and relate that by kind of mimicing that game plan. trying to i guess really just make some intelligent (but not too intelligent lol) guess as to what the situation is and then taking a gamble on a bet or not. really tricky trying to get a handle on it as your watching the cards over some number of rounds and try and decide is the remaining pack rich to some degree or poor to some degree of aces & tens or low cards. so but i don't know of or haven't even seriously considered trying to tap into some sort of instinctial sort of way like the fishing genet does. really the fishing genet uses more of a wonging technique than i'm able to get away with lol.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
damm aslan we musta been at the same table and didn't even know it. i seen that kid do all that too! lol. i was sitting right next to him. :rolleyes:
but yes what your talking about is i think on a way differant level than what i'm thinkin of when i imagine this fuzzy count thing. but i guess since i don't understand those phenomenon you refer to that it's not out of the realm of possibility that factors like that could be operating. just doesn't seem to have very consistent positive results when i try it lol. but the way i'm thinking of this fuzzy count idea is at this point really just card watching and if said card watcher has in the past been a counter and understands an appropriate card counting game plan then maybe you try and through on some level by the understanding of what you've seen take and try and relate that by kind of mimicing that game plan. trying to i guess really just make some intelligent (but not too intelligent lol) guess as to what the situation is and then taking a gamble on a bet or not. really tricky trying to get a handle on it as your watching the cards over some number of rounds and try and decide is the remaining pack rich to some degree or poor to some degree of aces & tens or low cards. so but i don't know of or haven't even seriously considered trying to tap into some sort of instinctial sort of way like the fishing genet does. really the fishing genet uses more of a wonging technique than i'm able to get away with lol.
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That is the best description of fuzzy counting that I've heard so far. But it does seem to be what I would call lazy counting. I mean,

why base betting decisions on I think if my impression is right that there are probably more tens and aces in the remaining undealt cards but I'm really not sure if that is so and if it is I'm really not sure to what degree so it's really very hard to know how much to raise my bet but if my impression is correct and since it is late in the deal and only a few rounds are left it is probably a fairly high positive count so I will spread 8 or 10 times and hope that my impression is right,

when all you have to do is keep the count (second nature after a while) and make the right decisions at the right times and bet the correct proportion of your bankroll that is justified by the well established mathematics of advantage play.

I think what drives your fuzzy counting is the same thing that drives my stubborn refusal to apply the well established principles of wonging in and out. It's more fun to play without all the uncomfortable and hard-work practices of true advantage play. I guess it's a matter of whether one views Blackjack as primarily a business or primarily a pleasurable activity.

I would suggest that if it's the latter, it might be more profitable and just as pleasurable to keep the count but limit the spreading to low multiples or flatbetting. In this way, you will not be faced with the prospect of that demon monster, negative variance, rearing its ugly head when you have maximum bets on the table. It's a fairly carefree, fun way to play blackjack.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
maybe this ain't right.... lol

aslan said:
That is the best description of fuzzy counting that I've heard so far. But it does seem to be what I would call lazy counting. I mean,

why base betting decisions on I think if my impression is right that there are probably more tens and aces in the remaining undealt cards but I'm really not sure if that is so and if it is I'm really not sure to what degree so it's really very hard to know how much to raise my bet but if my impression is correct and since it is late in the deal and only a few rounds are left it is probably a fairly high positive count so I will spread 8 or 10 times and hope that my impression is right,
when all you have to do is keep the count (second nature after a while) and make the right decisions at the right times and bet the correct proportion of your bankroll that is justified by the well established mathematics of advantage play.
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yeah, i dunno. it's like what you wrote there brought something out that's been in the deep dark recesses of my mind lol. something to do with the idea of accuracy and effectivness and maybe efficiency and maybe what your goals are and how often one might play, ect.. and maybe something to do with the idea of luck and trying to get some but maybe trying to avoid bad luck as well lol. i think. but what ever it's the idea that say for some hand that you are a favorite to win or even more significantly some hand that you are likely to succeed at a double down or even more significantly some hand that has a good chance at being a blackjack well those are the three goodies that we are all really after. if you can achieve those three things or a couple of them with a good sized bet out well however you did it or achieved it is pretty much a moot point. i mean it doesn't really matter what the count is if you can achieve those three. i mean yeah you gotta have it so that your waiting bets are relatively insignificant to the desireable result of the achievement of those three or some combination of them. but if it happens you don't really care was the true count plus one or plus ten. but if you keep the count and make the right decisions at the right times and bet the correct proportion of your bankroll that is justified by the well established mathematics of advantage play then none of those three can happen with a significant bet out at the wrong time unless you make a mistake. it can happen though with the fuzzy count approach. i guess the point is that with the fuzzy count approach you have the potential to win for the right reasons and for the wrong reasons lol. it's not like your purposely aiming to make it happen. your not saying i'm gonna bet my max at tc=1 instead of tc=4. but it's gonna happen and as far as i know not predictably but more in a random or at least unknown way. let's just say this, let's suppose that with the fuzzy count you can keep it so that only a negligible number of raised bets will ever be made where the true count is zero or less and that further more you can keep it so that the majority of your raised bets fall within the prescripts of some valid bet scenerio of some valid positive advantage simulation. and but yes some very small number of those raised bets are going to fall within a positive true count but not the proper optimal count for that sized bet. and let's say we are betting all this according to some bankroll in some supposedly optimal fashion. but let's also say that bankroll isn't really our bankroll lol but our bankroll is really some higher value roll such that maybe those off bets at the lower tc's could be a proper optimal bet (but we really would prefer not to make those bets at that level). but ok maybe it's gonna happen sometimes with the fuzzy approach. no big deal, nothing life changing and for the most part we are slogging along with the bets tailored for the lower bankroll that we're really most comfortable with. so yeah the ride might be a bit wilder up or down. but maybe in the long run not so catostrophic. lol i dunno just speculating here. this is the voodoo forum right?

aslan said:
I think what drives your fuzzy counting is the same thing that drives my stubborn refusal to apply the well established principles of wonging in and out. It's more fun to play without all the uncomfortable and hard-work practices of true advantage play. I guess it's a matter of whether one views Blackjack as primarily a business or primarily a pleasurable activity.

I would suggest that if it's the latter, it might be more profitable and just as pleasurable to keep the count but limit the spreading to low multiples or flatbetting. In this way, you will not be faced with the prospect of that demon monster, negative variance, rearing its ugly head when you have maximum bets on the table. It's a fairly carefree, fun way to play blackjack.
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lol you got it aslan. all i wanna do is have my cake and eat it too lol. you know score a free lunch. lol.
but yeah i mean the counting thing while flat betting and playing matrices doesn't sound so bad. so what would you think of that with firing out a few bigger bets here and there maybe?
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
Stoned or Need to Be LOL

I swear I still can't figure out if reading your posts makes me stoned or I need to be stoned to read your posts:joker:

Sure there are savants. However, don't worry I am not one and neither are you. If you were you would not have to work at being fuzzy. My friends say I stagger around with a fuzzy look on my face anyway. What is more likely to happen for us of just below average intellect is if we do something long enough it becomes second nature. Then it becomes counting without counting. An olympic gymnast first thinks about their routine a lot but once mastered there is no thought at all.

seeing without thinking
not thinking while calm
calm while seeing

when you can snatch this pebble from my hand you are ready.:laugh:
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
yeah, i dunno. it's like what you wrote there brought something out that's been in the deep dark recesses of my mind lol. something to do with the idea of accuracy and effectivness and maybe efficiency and maybe what your goals are and how often one might play, ect.. and maybe something to do with the idea of luck and trying to get some but maybe trying to avoid bad luck as well lol. i think. but what ever it's the idea that say for some hand that you are a favorite to win or even more significantly some hand that you are likely to succeed at a double down or even more significantly some hand that has a good chance at being a blackjack well those are the three goodies that we are all really after. if you can achieve those three things or a couple of them with a good sized bet out well however you did it or achieved it is pretty much a moot point. i mean it doesn't really matter what the count is if you can achieve those three. i mean yeah you gotta have it so that your waiting bets are relatively insignificant to the desireable result of the achievement of those three or some combination of them. but if it happens you don't really care was the true count plus one or plus ten. but if you keep the count and make the right decisions at the right times and bet the correct proportion of your bankroll that is justified by the well established mathematics of advantage play then none of those three can happen with a significant bet out at the wrong time unless you make a mistake. it can happen though with the fuzzy count approach. i guess the point is that with the fuzzy count approach you have the potential to win for the right reasons and for the wrong reasons lol. it's not like your purposely aiming to make it happen. your not saying i'm gonna bet my max at tc=1 instead of tc=4. but it's gonna happen and as far as i know not predictably but more in a random or at least unknown way. let's just say this, let's suppose that with the fuzzy count you can keep it so that only a negligible number of raised bets will ever be made where the true count is zero or less and that further more you can keep it so that the majority of your raised bets fall within the prescripts of some valid bet scenerio of some valid positive advantage simulation. and but yes some very small number of those raised bets are going to fall within a positive true count but not the proper optimal count for that sized bet. and let's say we are betting all this according to some bankroll in some supposedly optimal fashion. but let's also say that bankroll isn't really our bankroll lol but our bankroll is really some higher value roll such that maybe those off bets at the lower tc's could be a proper optimal bet (but we really would prefer not to make those bets at that level). but ok maybe it's gonna happen sometimes with the fuzzy approach. no big deal, nothing life changing and for the most part we are slogging along with the bets tailored for the lower bankroll that we're really most comfortable with. so yeah the ride might be a bit wilder up or down. but maybe in the long run not so catostrophic. lol i dunno just speculating here. this is the voodoo forum right?
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There's something in all of us I think that just wants to be lucky. I don't know where it comes from--do we think maybe we're a special person--the exception to the rule--or somebody up there likes us--or why not me--or someone's going to get lucky, might as well be me--or Lord please send me this one--or good things happen to good people--or whatever, people seem to think they are different form the others and luck should come their way. Maybe it comes from all those dumb movies we were reared with where the good cowboy always gets four aces, James Bond always gets his man and wins at baccarat, roulette, and poker to boot, and all our heroes just seem to have an endless supply of that positive variance stuff. I understand fully what you said above, and you said it yourself, after pointing out that even when you count and bet perfectly, you will not always win, but with fuzzy counting "it's gonna happen and as far as i know not predictably but more in a random or at least unknown way." You are hoping that by fuzzy counting you might miss those instances where perfect counting still loses, and fall into those happy times when perfect counting indeed does win. In other words, you're hoping to get lucky, but the fact remains, you have a much higher chance of being unlucky when you do it this way, since you not only have an equal chance of randomly hitting all the losers as you do of hitting all the winners, but to compound your bad luck, you will not even be sure that the count justifies a larger bet, or what the bet should be, win or lose. I think you are deliberately stacking the cards against yourself. Lol

sagefr0g said:
lol you got it aslan. all i wanna do is have my cake and eat it too lol. you know score a free lunch. lol.
but yeah i mean the counting thing while flat betting and playing matrices doesn't sound so bad. so what would you think of that with firing out a few bigger bets here and there maybe?
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I think this is better than the first paragraph in that you are not risking as much, but then to get your kicks you throw a few bigger bets out there to see if you can get lucky. The easiest way of course to get lucky is to play it by the book, because we all know that the luck factor will yield to the house edge in the long run. You've got gamble, and you are expressing some deep-seated need to test your luck, to be Ken Maynard with a ten gallon hat and the inevitable four aces perhaps--I'm no psychoanalyst--I can't even figure myself out. Lol But gambling is fun, who doesn't like to do it, and at least you know that if anything good is going to happen it is more likely to happen when the count is in plus territory, so you're not completely throwing caution to the winds, although you do seem to be trying to throw what certain edge you do have to the winds while at the same time hoping it comes back to you. Lol All I can say is, "Good luck!" :)
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
blackjack avenger said:
I swear I still can't figure out if reading your posts makes me stoned or I need to be stoned to read your posts:joker:

Sure there are savants. However, don't worry I am not one and neither are you. If you were you would not have to work at being fuzzy. My friends say I stagger around with a fuzzy look on my face anyway. What is more likely to happen for us of just below average intellect is if we do something long enough it becomes second nature. Then it becomes counting without counting. An olympic gymnast first thinks about their routine a lot but once mastered there is no thought at all.

seeing without thinking
not thinking while calm
calm while seeing

when you can snatch this pebble from my hand you are ready.:laugh:
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Is that you, Grasshopper? :cool:
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
I understand fully what you said above, and you said it yourself, after pointing out that even when you count and bet perfectly, you will not always win, but with fuzzy counting "it's gonna happen and as far as i know not predictably but more in a random or at least unknown way." You are hoping that by fuzzy counting you might miss those instances where perfect counting still loses, and fall into those happy times when perfect counting indeed does win. In other words, you're hoping to get lucky, but the fact remains, you have a much higher chance of being unlucky when you do it this way, since you not only have an equal chance of randomly hitting all the losers as you do of hitting all the winners, but to compound your bad luck, you will not even be sure that the count justifies a larger bet, or what the bet should be, win or lose. I think you are deliberately stacking the cards against yourself. Lol
............
and at least you know that if anything good is going to happen it is more likely to happen when the count is in plus territory, so you're not completely throwing caution to the winds, although you do seem to be trying to throw what certain edge you do have to the winds while at the same time hoping it comes back to you. Lol All I can say is, "Good luck!"
:)
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hmm looks like you saw right through my voodoo. lol. i mean especially the part about the good and bad luck evening out and the part where i throw the baby out with the bath water lol. but i think you did give me a little when you noted that at least i'm trying for the positive count. lol.
another point i might try and weakly put forth is the question of how good might one get at a fuzzy approach as far as approaching how well one migh be able to count cards properly. Bojack i think believes a lot of counters would be suprised at the level of error they might unwittingly be commiting. i wouldn't doubt that overall my best efforts when i was trying to count orthodox that my error rate was perhaps 13% or maybe even worse. humans, at least us fr0glike ones don't make for very good bean counting machines lol. those blouseless gals at first base or what ever are just too distracting. lol.
no but i dunno for the games i normally play and the amount of play i can get in at this point, well the $2/hr or $6/hr a'int all that alluring. but i'll take it. lol.
so again since this is the voodoo forum, lol what i'd really like is a good sized chunk of that standard deviation money. lol. i mean really i have the utmost respect and admiration for the mathematics of counting and the game. and lol i can even understand some of it. even so i've come to the point where i still have this other respect and admiration for other attributes that us human fr0g or non-fr0g's might possess or know about or have had experience with. i mean somehow each of us has floundered our way through life and maybe learned some things and maybe developed some instinct (there ya go) or wisdom about. doesn't seem to be much room for that sort of virtue in orthodox counting. just grind along like a robot and rake the money in is the idea. now that too me and i'm sorry my respected fellow counters to say this but that to me is throwing caution to the wind. you know it's the idea just keep playing endlessly and gettin that EV and don't worry the money will come sort of thing. but wait a minute it's really should be stated that the money will come maybe if your ROR doesn't get you or your mistakes don't get you or if your career isn't cut short for what ever reason at some point where maybe your on your second bankroll or your way down in some deep standard deviation hole.
lol, i guess i'm just basically a ploppy with hopeful dreams and unrealistic expectations. i just don't think i'll ever stop wanting to get a handle on some of that standard deviation money. one thing for sure is the propper application of the math of card counting ain't gonna get it for you. question would be might it be possible that a reasoned effort might? that's my voodoo. but i guess it's easy for me cause i'm just a recreational player living in my little fantasy world like you say where James Bond get the girl, gets the villian and wins every game he plays.
voovoo i know. but good luck to you to :)
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
hmm looks like you saw right through my voodoo. lol. i mean especially the part about the good and bad luck evening out and the part where i throw the baby out with the bath water lol. but i think you did give me a little when you noted that at least i'm trying for the positive count. lol.
another point i might try and weakly put forth is the question of how good might one get at a fuzzy approach as far as approaching how well one migh be able to count cards properly. Bojack i think believes a lot of counters would be suprised at the level of error they might unwittingly be commiting. i wouldn't doubt that overall my best efforts when i was trying to count orthodox that my error rate was perhaps 13% or maybe even worse. humans, at least us fr0glike ones don't make for very good bean counting machines lol. those blouseless gals at first base or what ever are just too distracting. lol.
no but i dunno for the games i normally play and the amount of play i can get in at this point, well the $2/hr or $6/hr a'int all that alluring. but i'll take it. lol.
so again since this is the voodoo forum, lol what i'd really like is a good sized chunk of that standard deviation money. lol. i mean really i have the utmost respect and admiration for the mathematics of counting and the game. and lol i can even understand some of it. even so i've come to the point where i still have this other respect and admiration for other attributes that us human fr0g or non-fr0g's might possess or know about or have had experience with. i mean somehow each of us has floundered our way through life and maybe learned some things and maybe developed some instinct (there ya go) or wisdom about. doesn't seem to be much room for that sort of virtue in orthodox counting. just grind along like a robot and rake the money in is the idea. now that too me and i'm sorry my respected fellow counters to say this but that to me is throwing caution to the wind. you know it's the idea just keep playing endlessly and gettin that EV and don't worry the money will come sort of thing. but wait a minute it's really should be stated that the money will come maybe if your ROR doesn't get you or your mistakes don't get you or if your career isn't cut short for what ever reason at some point where maybe your on your second bankroll or your way down in some deep standard deviation hole.
lol, i guess i'm just basically a ploppy with hopeful dreams and unrealistic expectations. i just don't think i'll ever stop wanting to get a handle on some of that standard deviation money. one thing for sure is the propper application of the math of card counting ain't gonna get it for you. question would be might it be possible that a reasoned effort might? that's my voodoo. but i guess it's easy for me cause i'm just a recreational player living in my little fantasy world like you say where James Bond get the girl, gets the villian and wins every game he plays.
voovoo i know. but good luck to you to :)
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Your honesty humbles me. Lol I suppose there's voodoo in all of us, even those who vehemently deny it (maybe especially them). As:dog:lan
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
jack said:
Whats going on over here:confused: ?
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it started out me venting about the smoking ban in AC over on the land based forum. lol.
aslan astutely changed the subject to fuzzy counting nomenclature and i tranferred the whole discussion here to hopefully appease the bullet chaser. lol.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
here's a couple of fuzzy counters. one of em is smokin lol
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Beautiful feline! :cat: Yours? I have both a dog (named Aslan BTW) and a cat (named Stormy). Aslan is a mixed breed terrier resembling Benji and is going on 18 yo; Stormy, who found our garage in a storm is a black cat, 12 yo. I suppose we've had somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 cats over the years, most of them just showing up for dinner unexpectedly. Lol As:dog:lan
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Beautiful feline! :cat: Yours? I have both a dog (named Aslan BTW) and a cat (named Stormy). Aslan is a mixed breed terrier resembling Benji and is going on 18 yo; Stormy, who found our garage in a storm is a black cat, 12 yo. I suppose we've had somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 cats over the years, most of them just showing up for dinner unexpectedly. Lol As:dog:lan
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lol, i think she's mine but she thinks otherwise, she thinks i'm hers lol. she's about 16 years old her names Blue for obvious reasons. and then we got Sadie a five year old poodle. she was rescued from one of those dammed puppy mills. didn't even know how to go up and down stairs when we first got her. now she runs the show. lol
 

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aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
lol, i think she's mine but she thinks otherwise, she thinks i'm hers lol. she's about 16 years old her names Blue for obvious reasons. and then we got Sadie a five year old poodle. she was rescued from one of those dammed puppy mills. didn't even know how to go up and down stairs when we first got her. now she runs the show. lol
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Aha! A picture of the boss! Beautiful puppy dog (I mean senior citizen!). I lost all my files on my last PC so I don't have a picture of Aslan to show you, but I will when I get it loaded up again. He's asleep on the carpet at my feet now, and Stormy is sleeping on his bed, with her head on his mini-pillow, I guess you'd call it. At night they sleep curled up together; get along like brother and sister. Kinda peaceful with just the two of them. But it was a different story at one time when we had 8 cats--especially when they would break out of the house to explore the neighborhood and I and my hysterical wife would be searching from house to house with flashlights for the little escapees. Haha! Those were the days.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
i wouldn't doubt that overall my best efforts when i was trying to count orthodox that my error rate was perhaps 13% or maybe even worse. humans, at least us fr0glike ones don't make for very good bean counting machines lol.
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Since I know you are too modest to admit it, let me just say while you might choose to not count in an orthodox way which is fine, your choice, but the Siamese cat is out of the bag lol on your counting ability in those 1500+ hands you chose to count in an orthodox way vs the Ghost Rider.

I think 3 times in about 200 times when max bet was called for you bet the lower count 3 times. Anybody can be a little off on a marginal TC and they say it's not that big of a deal in general I think. Maybe once in a 100 hands you bet max in the next lower TC rung instead of next lower bet.

You should pat yourself on the back becasue you have the luxury of knowing it's real because CVBJ says so.

A real card-counter out there in real life never really knows exactly how many mistakes he makes. Probably not many but I'm sure some especially around close TC's.

Take heart - you still might really suck at index departures :)
 
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