fuzzy count

aslan said:

Aha! A picture of the boss! Beautiful puppy dog (I mean senior citizen!). I lost all my files on my last PC so I don't have a picture of Aslan to show you, but I will when I get it loaded up again. He's asleep on the carpet at my feet now, and Stormy is sleeping on his bed, with her head on his mini-pillow, I guess you'd call it. At night they sleep curled up together; get along like brother and sister. Kinda peaceful with just the two of them. But it was a different story at one time when we had 8 cats--especially when they would break out of the house to explore the neighborhood and I and my hysterical wife would be searching from house to house with flashlights for the little escapees. Haha! Those were the days.

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yah that'll be cool to see Aslan & Stormy the two buds supposed to be like oil & water lol. but your cats on the loose story makes me think of what happened to our Sadie. she got out on the loose on a big adventure one day when my wife let her outside to do her business. i was 1,113 miles away trying to sell some other real estate we had. got this hysterical call that the pooch was missing. she was gone for three days and the wife platered up these lost dog posters all over town. so we had three days of misery until the wife gets this call from some guy that found Sadie who was limping around with a broken leg. sure was a relief to get her back.

Kasi said:

Since I know you are too modest to admit it, let me just say while you might choose to not count in an orthodox way which is fine, your choice, but the Siamese cat is out of the bag lol on your counting ability in those 1500+ hands you chose to count in an orthodox way vs the Ghost Rider.

I think 3 times in about 200 times when max bet was called for you bet the lower count 3 times. Anybody can be a little off on a marginal TC and they say it's not that big of a deal in general I think. Maybe once in a 100 hands you bet max in the next lower TC rung instead of next lower bet.

You should pat yourself on the back becasue you have the luxury of knowing it's real because CVBJ says so.

A real card-counter out there in real life never really knows exactly how many mistakes he makes. Probably not many but I'm sure some especially around close TC's.

Take heart - you still might really suck at index departures

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well thanks Kasi. i know all that looks good. thing is though i'm playing CVBJ in my bvd's in the peace and quite of my crib. can take all the time i want and pretty much need. then i'm peeking at the count from time to time to reinforce my counting practice, not to mention checking to verify my discard estimation is correct. so where i'd like to take credit for the spot on betting it's really not comming about same as if i was sitting in some joint at a table where the gal at first base forgot to wear her blouse and all. lol
about the only really distraction i've been getting is when Sadie wants me to take her outside every twenty minutes or so or when i gotta get up and get another cup of coffee or something. but it has been darned good practice, a really learning experience.
next time what i'll have to do is just play it as it goes and not worry about the practice reinforcement and then check the logs and see how badly i slaughtered it.
i gotta say one thing for me though. i stuck to the game plan (after some initial slacking) and never steam voodoo'd and only i think was gonna almost cry once. lol

hey aslan i move the discussion again lol.

What it tells me is that you have to get lucky to be a successful card counter unless you're willing to wait until the LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLong run, which many of us are not. But where we quarrel, but its not really a quarrel per se, is that, if one understands this, then it only makes sense that if one wants to get lucky it is more likely to happen doing the count in a clear and precise manner than in doing the 'fuzzy" with its lack of fully-utilized mathematical underpinning. I say there's no quarrel because I know you agree. I think then that maybe you are weighing the downside of being clear and precise in one's approach (counting) and therefore WORKING HARD to make it happen, against the possibility of getting lucky with a fuzzy but far more enjoyable application of the same science with no real work involved. If we measure the enjoyment derived from fuzzy counting and its more relaxed and carefree approach in terms of entertainment dollars then maybe just maybe fuzzy counting is a superior approach to the traditional counting methods and can actually be shown to pay as much or more in converted dollar earnings. I think I just capitulated to the fuzzy camp. LOL

PS--Could be a few Blackjack books on the pile, too.

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and i wouldn't really try and influence anyone to take such a tact except in the context of how Renzey writes about card watching in Blackjack Bluebook II as a on a list of priorities sort of thing.... the idea that you have say flat betting basic strategy a bottom priority, next maybe borderline decisions for basic strategy variation by hand composition, next maybe borderline decisions for basic strategy variation by board condition, now maybe card watching or observation of high card/low card layouts, now maybe some low level count (such as ace/ten front count), and on up to highest priority genuine orthodox counting method of varying degrees of accuracy and efficiency. so the idea of fuzzy counting just really card watching and trying to know how what you've seen in a cumulative sense and how that might afford some degree of value for taking a gamble or not with some sense of trying to fit what you think you have to some known advantage situation from experience and sims and understanding you might have. to where hey you get to make a decision not just simply react. a hard to measure thing the value of being able to make a decision. i dunno i just have a sense it might be worth something. lol. to where like i was trying to argue before. it's like yeah card counting is a skill. so i think what you get is a point of diminishing returns as far as your skill level at counting. like plucking a guitar and making cords. that's a skill. but making music with that guitar now that really is a skill and it takes creativity and soulful decision making. so too i want to believe with card counting. maybe try and go beyond what a computer can do with card counting and see what a person can make it do. voodoo i know but really where do ideas like say shuffle tracking and card sequencing and the like come from? certainly not from just toeing the line as a robotic card counter. and then like you i think capitulated maybe have more fun for your buck. but what ever it's just something a choice one can make and heck you could even count your heart out if you want and maybe just take a fuzzy tact as your counting when you hit that 70% or so of no advantage hands and rest your brain lol. especially when you are dealing maybe with some crappy games with poor penetration and all.