idiots anonymous

should we be allowed a thread for a blackjackinfocom-team.... if it's ok with Ken?

  • yea

    Votes: 11 84.6%

  • nea

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Total voters
    13
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
glad to hear you have a good win/loss ratio in real life. so far i'm doin alright as well.
and yeah you aren't the only one that needs to watch the chasing and steaming. destructive actions aren't they? for me if i'm coasting along with what appears to be expectation or high standard deviation i'm not bothered by the work one bit. lol. it's when the low end standard deviation strikes that i get the sense that hey wait one here this is too much like work. lol.
and then you know darned well the low end stuff is gonna come along sooner or later so it's like waiting for the other shoe to drop. lol. i don't even like it when i'm just playing on the computer and the low end stuff hits. sure would like to know how folks like Bojack and company deal with that.
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Just a little tweak on what I said. You quoted me correctly. Yes, my win/loss ratio is good....in terms of sessions. Lol But my losing sessions tend to be 5 times worse my winning sessions (I'm just eyeballing it). Lol I'm a little out in front, but could have done better (maybe a lot better) with more disciplined play. Lol
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
Okay gang, I decided to keep a chart of my EV vs. my actual results. Now, to calculate my EV I could:

A) Multiply my total amount bet by my theoretical advantage (from the sim).

or

B) Multiply my number of hands played by my theoretical win per hand (from the sim).

If my actual average bet was equal to the average bet from the sim it wouldn’t matter which method I used. But until that happens, which method should I use? I flipped a mental coin, and went with Plan B.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Just a little tweak on what I said. You quoted me correctly. Yes, my win/loss ratio is good....in terms of sessions. Lol But my losing sessions tend to be 5 times worse my winning sessions (I'm just eyeballing it). Lol I'm a little out in front, but could have done better (maybe a lot better) with more disciplined play. Lol
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yeah i had one session was eight times worse (eyeballing it too) than say my circa winning sessions. :eek: thing is though i played that one twenty one hours straight lol as opposed to i guess most other session maybe three hours on average.
but if you figure that discipline thing out lemme know. lol
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
Okay gang, I decided to keep a chart of my EV vs. my actual results. Now, to calculate my EV I could:

A) Multiply my total amount bet by my theoretical advantage (from the sim).

or

B) Multiply my number of hands played by my theoretical win per hand (from the sim).

If my actual average bet was equal to the average bet from the sim it wouldn’t matter which method I used. But until that happens, which method should I use? I flipped a mental coin, and went with Plan B.
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ahh got it. i think. Kasi will be interested in that one.
i dunno..... wonder what doing both A & B and then averaging that would mean? :confused: lol
but yeah i guess B is a good choice for now.
now you got me wondering what would A give you? duh?
i couldn't remmember the math from one day to the next lol.
Kasi's spread sheet figures your EV at some hands played equals
#hands times avg bet per hand times win/loss%
so maybe you need the avg bet from the sim in there for your B calculation?
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Second Report

After 325 hands, I stand $425 ahead.

My average bet was $47.
Highest point was $875.
Lowest point was $525.

Assuming I had $25,000 in my pocket (My personal criteria is that bankroll should be 100 times maximum bet), it seems like a lot of work for a small gain, which the next 325 hands may sweep away. Of course, I guess recording each hand on my computer contributed to the feeling of "work." Lol

PS--I wouldn't really carry $25,000 in my pocket. Lol

How's everyone else doing?
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
How's everyone else doing?
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My understanding of The Plan (such as it is) is that we post our results in the "Weekend Warriors" thread, and discuss what's going on in this thread. ;)
Anyway, that's where most of our results are.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
My understanding of The Plan (such as it is) is that we post our results in the "Weekend Warriors" thread, and discuss what's going on in this thread. ;)
Anyway, that's where most of our results are.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I musta missed that.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
My understanding of The Plan (such as it is) is that we post our results in the "Weekend Warriors" thread, and discuss what's going on in this thread. ;)
Anyway, that's where most of our results are.
Click to expand...
think that's a good idea in general but not a hard fast rule maybe lol.
just curious i saw your last graph and roller coaster ride lol. up up and away.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=83858&postcount=60
but was just curious do you think your getting the EV at some hands played correct? you know like we was discussing in the post:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=83329&postcount=64
i'm just wondering if it should be #hands times avg bet per hand times win/loss% . 1.377% was the win/loss% my ko sim had (seems a bit high?). but i think you ran a power sim or what ever it's called. if so i'm just curious how that win/loss% number compares.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=82241&postcount=11
how about average bet? see your getting 99.27 now. last one was 98.06 .
my sim had average bet of 3.40 units = $85 not to far off from yours.
i think the hi/lo average bet is $108.89. haven't checked how my results are comparing yet.
just shooting the breeze here. i think Kasi can make more sense of it all lol.
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
More breeze shot...

sagefr0g said:
think that's a good idea in general but not a hard fast rule maybe lol.
just curious i saw your last graph and roller coaster ride lol. up up and away.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=83858&postcount=60
but was just curious do you think your getting the EV at some hands played correct? you know like we was discussing in the post:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=83329&postcount=64
i'm just wondering if it should be #hands times avg bet per hand times win/loss% . 1.377% was the win/loss% my ko sim had (seems a bit high?). but i think you ran a power sim or what ever it's called. if so i'm just curious how that win/loss% number compares.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=82241&postcount=11
how about average bet? see your getting 99.27 now. last one was 98.06 .
my sim had average bet of 3.40 units = $85 not to far off from yours.
i think the hi/lo average bet is $108.89. haven't checked how my results are comparing yet.
just shooting the breeze here. i think Kasi can make more sense of it all lol.
Click to expand...
Here are some numbers from PowerSim using the KO bet ramp you provided (which is what I’ve been using):
Average win per hand: $1.172
Average bet: $86.37
Win rate: 1.357%

My actual numbers after 70 shoes:
Hands played: 3,326
Total amount bet: 330,175
Amount won: 6,486
Average bet: 99.27

What I would have been expected to win could be:
1.172 X 3326 = 3898 (which is the method I chose)
or
330175 X .01357 = 4480 (The method you suggested gives the same answer: 3326 X 99.27 X .01357 = 4480)

Also notice that if I had actually had the average bet from the sim, the different methods would give the same answer: 3326 X 86.37 X .01357 = 3898

I suppose your way is probably the standard way to do it. Leave it to me to guess wrong. I think I’ll change my chart to use that method, even though I’ll have to fudge a couple of numbers for my previous results.

I don’t mind that my average bet is higher than it “should be”; that means I’ve been getting better counts than expected.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
Here are some numbers from PowerSim using the KO bet ramp you provided (which is what I’ve been using):
Average win per hand: $1.172
Average bet: $86.37
Win rate: 1.357%

My actual numbers after 70 shoes:
Hands played: 3,326
Total amount bet: 330,175
Amount won: 6,486
Average bet: 99.27

What I would have been expected to win could be:
1.172 X 3326 = 3898 (which is the method I chose)
or
330175 X .01357 = 4480 (The method you suggested gives the same answer: 3326 X 99.27 X .01357 = 4480)

Also notice that if I had actually had the average bet from the sim, the different methods would give the same answer: 3326 X 86.37 X .01357 = 3898

I suppose your way is probably the standard way to do it. Leave it to me to guess wrong. I think I’ll change my chart to use that method, even though I’ll have to fudge a couple of numbers for my previous results.

I don’t mind that my average bet is higher than it “should be”; that means I’ve been getting better counts than expected.
Click to expand...

You guys are all doing great - I know I owe a couple of you some stuff.

Anyway, 3898 is the right way Canceller. It's the same becasue win rate*avg bet = $1.17/hand lol.

I think avg bet means avg initial bet and does not count $'s wagered on doubles and splits. So total dollars wagered could be 10% or more above that.

Just like HA is based on initial hand wager and not total $'s wagered.

Anyway, by the Grace of God or not lol, it seems as if our results are not unexpected?

Bear with me lol.
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
I had it right the first time?

Kasi said:
Anyway, 3898 is the right way Canceller.
Click to expand...
Okay, so number of hands played times the win rate per hand. I'll change my chart back, then.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
Okay, so number of hands played times the win rate per hand. I'll change my chart back, then.
Click to expand...
lol so sorry Canceler. i'm a confused puppy. i'll figure it out.... maybe. :cat:
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
yeah. we'll get it straight.
many shoes as you want.
just the idea is at least we all bet consistent what ever we do.
then we've only got maybe four, five maybe six of us gonna do this.
so if need be that many analysis's can be done. it sure would be nice if some one could make a ko sim for how you describe your game plan. maybe i can find a canned one that is close in CVCX.
edit--- ok aslan. i got two canned ko preferred sims below:
one is 1-24 spread the other 1-10 . i guess they use indices??
hope they help....
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Not sure how I missed this before! But it is just what I wanted. I think lol.

Is there any chance that the picture you show has frequencies, etc at counts less than -4? I assume it is for a play-all game? Your picture only shows counts that have a +EV - I assume Canceller/Aslan are playing all hands?

Does CVCX show freq's well below -20 RC? Was -20 the IRC you used for this?

I never liked the Psim results that me and Canceller got (btw Canceller - mine were just about the same as yours) - at least they didn't make much sense to me because they didn't include a large enough range of RC's.

Feel free to either post the pic(s) here or just send them.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
I am.
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Thanks Canceller - I thought you were.

Are you using the CVCX sim The Wise One posted rather than our Psims? I think that's gonna be a better one to use.

What a shocker - if it begins with a CV.., you pretty much can't go wrong lol.

Your spsheet is da bomb btw!
 
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