Trip to AC

Negative fluctuation can be harrowing. On Saturday I began with a $700 losing session. Saturday afternoon and evening saw me drop down another $2,000, only to rebound to about $200 down. One round found me wagering two hands at $235 each, doubling down on one of them, for a grand total of $705. Winning all three went a long way toward pulling me out of the hole. Funds generally stayed pretty flat, except when traveling through postitive counts. There, of course, I'm ramping up to 10X or more in this 6-deck $25 min game with ugly pen (approx. 68%). It doesn't take long at these rates to drop $2,000. But hanging in there with sufficient BR I resurfaced without drowning. From then on things waxed better. That evening I won $70 in another casino at 8-Deck with great pen (85%) (I think the pen was a fluke because I never received that much pen in hundreds of hours previously), but we had to leave. Later that evening I won $120 with poor pen (68%)-very slow going, but at last I was even. Next day I won $400 with lousy pen (60%) by just waiting it out over a long period of time, wonging out a little, and finally hitting a positive flucuation that couldn't stop giving, until of course we hit end of shoe. After a comped $100 steak dinner (actually $82 comp, $20 tip), I returned to the 6-deck game and won another $200. Unable to keep my eyes open I managed three and a half hours sleep and then pulled out another $125 at the same table. (Strangely, with 60% pen I managed about $300, but when I finally got good pen (75%) I got burned for $225 leaving me with only the $125 win.) Before going to the showers I check my comps to find $70 of slot play, which was strange because I hadn't played a single slot. I played the $70 and came away with $94 cash. Then I ran over to the Taj Mahal because of a bonus offer and found I had won $41 from winning the day before, which converted to $80 (special offer) by coming back the next day and claiming it, where I also found $30 instant cashback ($110 total). Grand total for two days was in the neighborhood of $900 with tips and drinks included, but not including about $200 more in comps, a fleece lined parka for my wife, and two nights stay at the hotel. Most of my winnings were at $5 tables, some at $15. My losses were at $25 tables, which is a little rich for my blood (and BR). The $5 table poses little RoR and it is easy to mix it up enough for get away with 12X and more, especially when it counts. The only problem, and why it took so long to beat, was the terrible pen. I asked the dealer and he told me that they are instructed to cut off a little more than 2 decks. Thank God they didn't always do what they were told!

Nice job on the accidental comp hustling.

If you keep up that betting level on the high end, then a $700 win or loss eventually won't be a big deal to you. As you just noticed, one big hand can cause that much of a swing, imagine what happens when you start playing for a while!

You sure the poor pen had nothing to do with you? It was like that at other tables, too?

aslan said:

Negative fluctuation can be harrowing. On Saturday I began with a $700 losing session. Saturday afternoon and evening saw me drop down another $2,000, only to rebound to about $200 down. One round found me wagering two hands at $235 each, doubling down on one of them, for a grand total of $705. Winning all three went a long way toward pulling me out of the hole. Funds generally stayed pretty flat, except when traveling through postitive counts. There, of course, I'm ramping up to 10X or more in this 6-deck $25 min game with ugly pen (approx. 68%). It doesn't take long at these rates to drop $2,000. But hanging in there with sufficient BR I resurfaced without drowning. From then on things waxed better. That evening I won $70 in another casino at 8-Deck with great pen (85%) (I think the pen was a fluke because I never received that much pen in hundreds of hours previously), but we had to leave. Later that evening I won $120 with poor pen (68%)-very slow going, but at last I was even. Next day I won $400 with lousy pen (60%) by just waiting it out over a long period of time, wonging out a little, and finally hitting a positive flucuation that couldn't stop giving, until of course we hit end of shoe. After a comped $100 steak dinner (actually $82 comp, $20 tip), I returned to the 6-deck game and won another $200. Unable to keep my eyes open I managed three and a half hours sleep and then pulled out another $125 at the same table. (Strangely, with 60% pen I managed about $300, but when I finally got good pen (75%) I got burned for $225 leaving me with only the $125 win.) Before going to the showers I check my comps to find $70 of slot play, which was strange because I hadn't played a single slot. I played the $70 and came away with $94 cash. Then I ran over to the Taj Mahal because of a bonus offer and found I had won $41 from winning the day before, which converted to $80 (special offer) by coming back the next day and claiming it, where I also found $30 instant cashback ($110 total). Grand total for two days was in the neighborhood of $900 with tips and drinks included, but not including about $200 more in comps, a fleece lined parka for my wife, and two nights stay at the hotel. Most of my winnings were at $5 tables, some at $15. My losses were at $25 tables, which is a little rich for my blood (and BR). The $5 table poses little RoR and it is easy to mix it up enough for get away with 12X and more, especially when it counts. The only problem, and why it took so long to beat, was the terrible pen. I asked the dealer and he told me that they are instructed to cut off a little more than 2 decks. Thank God they didn't always do what they were told!

Click to expand...

Tell us your BR and unit size/spread. zg

zengrifter said:

Tell us your BR and unit size/spread. zg

Click to expand...

Well, that's just it. I have a completely replenishable BR, but naturally I don't want to go there. I had $7,500 in my pocket in AC. I believe to play the way I was (in $25 min games) I needed a minimum of $25,000 BR. But with the poor pen, I'd put it at more like $40,000. Question: When the pen is poor but beatable, doesn't that mean you need a more aggressive spread? Then the RoR goes up, or so i would imagine, meaning an even greater BR is in order ($50,000+?). Or is it better to not play at all until you find better pen?

PS - My spread was 1 X 9 or 10 or two hands 1 X 9

aslan said:

Question: When the pen is poor but beatable, doesn't that mean you need a more aggressive spread?

Click to expand...

Right.

aslan said:

Then the RoR goes up, or so i would imagine, meaning an even greater BR is in order ($50,000+?).

Click to expand...

No because you should be spreading down, not up. For example, ir your usual spread is $25-$300 (1:12) then you might increase your spread to $15-$300 (1:20). If your minimum bet is the table minimum then you will have to Wong more aggressively in order to increase your spread. In this case, using a bigger spread should reduce your ROR and make the game more profitable.

-Sonny-

Sonny said:

Right.



No because you should be spreading down, not up. For example, ir your usual spread is $25-$300 (1:12) then you might increase your spread to $15-$300 (1:20). If your minimum bet is the table minimum then you will have to Wong more aggressively in order to increase your spread. In this case, using a bigger spread should reduce your ROR and make the game more profitable.

-Sonny-

Click to expand...

I see your point. I was in a $25 min game, so I figured it might be helpful to go from "$25 to $250" to "$25 to $300." No?

aslan said:

Then the RoR goes up, or so i would imagine, meaning an even greater BR is in order ($50,000+?).

Click to expand...

:laugh: If this was the case, there would be like 6 card counters in the United states playing $25 levels. :laugh: meaning not many $25 table counters have 50k in liquid to burn. :cool2:

toastblows said:

:laugh: If this was the case, there would be like 6 card counters in the United states playing $25 levels. :laugh: meaning not many $25 table counters have 50k in liquid to burn. :cool2:

Click to expand...

Please clarify.

I think he's saying that $50,000 is a made up number, there's not that much money in the entire world.

Well, what are counters doing? Do they take $5,000 to the casino and hope to run it up quickly to $10,000 or $20,000 by playing 1x-10x spreads in $25 and $50 games (maybe even 1x-16x or 1x to 20x spreads)? If they go broke, they save up another $5,000 for their next foray? Sounds like gambling to me (with a slight edge), and a high chance of going broke. I thought counters were more risk adverse than that.

aslan said:

Well, what are counters doing? Do they take $5,000 to the casino and hope to run it up quickly to $10,000 or $20,000 by playing 1x-10x spreads in $25 and $50 games (maybe even 1x-16x or 1x to 20x spreads)? If they go broke, they save up another $5,000 for their next foray? Sounds like gambling to me (with a slight edge), and a high chance of going broke. I thought counters were more risk adverse than that.

Click to expand...

It all depends. You have the same edge regardless of your bankroll (within reason, you need enough cash on you to split/double and play out good counts) but if you have $5K in a $25 game, you will double it more often than you lose it all. And if you double it, you will double it again more often than you lose it all.

Playing a $25 game, the risk of losing a $5K bankroll is, oh, about the same as losing 10% of a $50K bankroll. I wouldn't want to do either. Being an employed guy losing my pocket stake is really no big deal, so I concentrate on win rate balanced by the likelihood of having to go home early. Usually I play to a 2-3% risk of trip ruin.

Automatic Monkey said:

It all depends. You have the same edge regardless of your bankroll (within reason, you need enough cash on you to split/double and play out good counts) but if you have $5K in a $25 game, you will double it more often than you lose it all. And if you double it, you will double it again more often than you lose it all.

Playing a $25 game, the risk of losing a $5K bankroll is, oh, about the same as losing 10% of a $50K bankroll. I wouldn't want to do either. Being an employed guy losing my pocket stake is really no big deal, so I concentrate on win rate balanced by the likelihood of having to go home early. Usually I play to a 2-3% risk of trip ruin.

Click to expand...

How much does 2-3% risk of trip ruin translate to in terms of trip bankroll?

aslan said:

How much does 2-3% risk of trip ruin translate to in terms of trip bankroll?

Click to expand...

In my usual games and usual trips, about 150-200 units.

The "replenishability" of a bankroll is a very squishy subject.

Let's say, for instance, you're really rich, but do not dedicate a bankroll to blackjack at all. So, you walk into a casino with $5k, fire it up, and let the results fall where they may. If you run out of cash, you can have another $5k by the next time you play. It won't affect the amount you play at all. This would be an infinitely replenishable bankroll.

An completely non-replenishable bankroll is one where if you run out of cash, you have to sell your internal organs in order to be able to eat.

Most of us fall somewhere in the middle. You don't want to bust out frequently, because it will reduce your play time (either to save up a new BR, or at least just to get more cash available, like if you're on a trip).

Having $7500 in cash on a trip when playing with a max bet of $250 is not unreasonable. But it just depends on the type and length of trip. Over a long trip, the risk of trip ruin might be too high.

http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-calculator-c3.htm

aslan said:

Well, what are counters doing? Do they take $5,000 to the casino and hope to run it up quickly to $10,000 or $20,000 by playing 1x-10x spreads in $25 and $50 games (maybe even 1x-16x or 1x to 20x spreads)? If they go broke, they save up another $5,000 for their next foray? Sounds like gambling to me (with a slight edge), and a high chance of going broke. I thought counters were more risk adverse than that.

Click to expand...

I always enjoy trip reports and you seemed to have a very good idea of what games you played, how u played them, (wonging or not etc) with what spread, for how long and at different levels of penetration. Like, to me, it seemed like u maybe played 6 or so different games lol.

I was wondering if u keep a diary of all that so that later you could sort it all out later - in other words, like I think you said at some point, you feel you are playing to many different ROR's at different times given spread and bankroll. And, you very well could be. I would think, if you don't, it would be great to keep such a diary along the lines of your first post with win/losses for each session kind of thing.

Anyway, as far as what card counters do, I don't really know. What I do is start with a bankroll. And then decide how I will bet different games that I think I am likely to encounter and how I think I might play them basically trying to keep the ROR constant at a level I'm comfortable with and changing my bet unit and spread as necessary thereby letting win rate fall where it may. Try to at least get a range of min units and spreads so I'm not surprised by bad games or miss out on a good one. Helps me realize whether I can play a $10 table or maybe a $15 table. Or even $25 lol.

Like my unit would radically change if wonging in at TC+2 vs playing all. And change again if wonging in at TC +1 OR +3. Probably change at 65% vs 83% penetration levels etc. Or change if I decide I can get away with 1-4 instead of 1-3. That would also likely change my unit. The idea, to me anyway, being to keep ROR constant, or as constant as possible lol, with the bankroll one has.

Also, on a trip, I try to estimate in advance how many hours I might be playing a game, or a range of games, to help determine a trip ROR. In other words I would take a different bank if I think I'm only going to play 16 hours (weekend) vs 100 hours (week) kind of thing.

So instead of trying to keep your ROR constant, as it seems to me you maybe are trying to do when you say you'd need a bigger bankroll for a game with poorer penetration vs better penetration, think about just changing bankroll units and spread vs bankroll and accept different win rates with the bankroll you currently have.

And, of course, as usual, I think betting what you are, for as much as you play, and having so many questions as you do, if you don't have a sim, you're INSANE! :grin:

Automatic Monkey said:

Playing a $25 game, the risk of losing a $5K bankroll is, oh, about the same as losing 10% of a $50K bankroll. ...Usually I play to a 2-3% risk of trip ruin.

Click to expand...

See, to me, the only thing that would change if I had a 50K roll vs a $5K roll
would be my unit size and the risk of losing either bankroll would be the same.

EasyRhino said:

The "replenishability" of a bankroll is a very squishy subject.

Let's say, for instance, you're really rich, but do not dedicate a bankroll to blackjack at all. So, you walk into a casino with $5k, fire it up, and let the results fall where they may. If you run out of cash, you can have another $5k by the next time you play. It won't affect the amount you play at all. This would be an infinitely replenishable bankroll.

An completely non-replenishable bankroll is one where if you run out of cash, you have to sell your internal organs in order to be able to eat.

Most of us fall somewhere in the middle. You don't want to bust out frequently, because it will reduce your play time (either to save up a new BR, or at least just to get more cash available, like if you're on a trip).

Having $7500 in cash on a trip when playing with a max bet of $250 is not unreasonable. But it just depends on the type and length of trip. Over a long trip, the risk of trip ruin might be too high.

http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-calculator-c3.htm

Click to expand...

Yes, exactly! If I go to Foxwoods and run out of money, I can just drive home. But if I go where I'm going next week and run out of money, I'll be there with my tool in my fist until my flight leaves.

On the other hand, if I travel anywhere remote it's going to be to a really good game so I'll need less money for the same profit.

Automatic Monkey said:

I'll be there with my tool in my fist until my flight leaves.

.

Click to expand...

Monk, I thought that posession of tools at the casino was illegal.

Kasi said:

I always enjoy trip reports and you seemed to have a very good idea of what games you played, how u played them, (wonging or not etc) with what spread, for how long and at different levels of penetration. Like, to me, it seemed like u maybe played 6 or so different games lol.

I was wondering if u keep a diary of all that so that later you could sort it all out later - in other words, like I think you said at some point, you feel you are playing to many different ROR's at different times given spread and bankroll. And, you very well could be. I would think, if you don't, it would be great to keep such a diary along the lines of your first post with win/losses for each session kind of thing.

Anyway, as far as what card counters do, I don't really know. What I do is start with a bankroll. And then decide how I will bet different games that I think I am likely to encounter and how I think I might play them basically trying to keep the ROR constant at a level I'm comfortable with and changing my bet unit and spread as necessary thereby letting win rate fall where it may. Try to at least get a range of min units and spreads so I'm not surprised by bad games or miss out on a good one. Helps me realize whether I can play a $10 table or maybe a $15 table. Or even $25 lol.

Like my unit would radically change if wonging in at TC+2 vs playing all. And change again if wonging in at TC +1 OR +3. Probably change at 65% vs 83% penetration levels etc. Or change if I decide I can get away with 1-4 instead of 1-3. That would also likely change my unit. The idea, to me anyway, being to keep ROR constant, or as constant as possible lol, with the bankroll one has.

Also, on a trip, I try to estimate in advance how many hours I might be playing a game, or a range of games, to help determine a trip ROR. In other words I would take a different bank if I think I'm only going to play 16 hours (weekend) vs 100 hours (week) kind of thing.

So instead of trying to keep your ROR constant, as it seems to me you maybe are trying to do when you say you'd need a bigger bankroll for a game with poorer penetration vs better penetration, think about just changing bankroll units and spread vs bankroll and accept different win rates with the bankroll you currently have.

And, of course, as usual, I think betting what you are, for as much as you play, and having so many questions as you do, if you don't have a sim, you're INSANE! :grin:

Click to expand...

I usually win when I play, but I always return to the forum to see what others think. I know that I can be winning and still be doing things wrong. Just look at the voodoo forum and all the claims of winning by non-counters, while we know they are basically just lucky. I always fear I may be playing it wrong and just setting myself up for a disastrous loss. Also, I know if I tell it all, I will be sure to get feedback on how to remove the rough edges of my play. My goal is to become as professional as possible with my play. I am building my bankroll and plan to continue this pursuit as long as possible. I am currently winning about 88% of my sessions. I haven't figured it out in terms of profitability yet.