Lucky Ladies

aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
In Lucky Ladies, as most of you probably know, you can bet on the possibility of having two face cards/tens on your first two cards. There are odds for different situations, for instance, two Q's of hearts pays big odds, and with dealer blackjack, I believe it pays 1000 to 1.

My questions is, at what point count does it become favorable to bet that you receive twenty on the deal?
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
In Lucky Ladies, as most of you probably know, you can bet on the possibility of having two face cards/tens on your first two cards. There are odds for different situations, for instance, two Q's of hearts pays big odds, and with dealer blackjack, I believe it pays 1000 to 1.

My questions is, at what point count does it become favorable to bet that you receive twenty on the deal?
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this very question has been asked an answered several times in the past 6 months, check the CC forum, and give the old SEARCH feature a whirl. you'll find the specifics in the query results (in addition to the links sonny gave you).
 
D

dacium

Well-Known Member
I would bet it +7 hi/lo to be safe.

I think I worked out +4 but I never got to sim it, it was onyl based on math. Another guy who only based on sim got +7.
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
when i play it with KO i plan on playing it around RC = +5 which is slightly higher than a hilo TC of +4. i don't have any sims to back it up, just some sagely advice from a shady neophyte.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Mimosine said:
when i play it with KO i plan on playing it around RC = +5 which is slightly higher than a hilo TC of +4. i don't have any sims to back it up, just some sagely advice from a shady neophyte.
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Shady Neophyte!!! Now I like that!!! Question: How does TC of +4 translate to Key Count or Pivot Point. Playing KO I'm used to thinking in terms of IRC=-28, KC=-6, and PP=+4, in an 8-deck game. Of course, I ratcheted the whole thing up to IRC=+12, KC=+34, and PP=+44 to make counting easier for me (I hate those negative RC's).
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
KO and Lucky Ladies

I have searched all the threads related to Lucky Ladies. All I want to know is where in 8-deck using KO does the side bet become favorable? Is it at the Key Count (-6), the Pivot Point (+4) or some other count? I just don't know how to translate what is said in other counting systems to the simple KO system.
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
With KO the PIVOT POINT of +4 using the IRCs in the book, means that your true count is +4, no matter where you are in the deck.

for LL's you at least need to be at the pivot point to bet it, i think you need to be a little bit higher, I was told at +5 or +6 so that is what I bet it at.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Mimosine said:
With KO the PIVOT POINT of +4 using the IRCs in the book, means that your true count is +4, no matter where you are in the deck.

for LL's you at least need to be at the pivot point to bet it, i think you need to be a little bit higher, I was told at +5 or +6 so that is what I bet it at.
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Thanks. +5 or +6 sounds good. Would you bet the minimum, the maximum or somewhere in the middle on the Lucky Ladies bet? I think on our $10 table the minimum was $5 and the max was $25.
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
Taking this to the next level

This subject begs the next question.
Once a minimum TC is established for the LL bet, let's say +5. Would it then not follow that the bet should be increased as the TC exceeds this min TC as does the main bet correlating to the TC? In other words, if the LL min. bet is $5 and the max. $25, at what TC should the $25 LL bet be placed?
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
bj bob said:
This subject begs the next question.
Once a minimum TC is established for the LL bet, let's say +5. Would it then not follow that the bet should be increased as the TC exceeds this min TC as does the main bet correlating to the TC? In other words, if the LL min. bet is $5 and the max. $25, at what TC should the $25 LL bet be placed?
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The maximum Lucky Ladies side bet should be placed the instant that the side bet is Plus EV (according to ZG, whom i trust on the matter).

but you should play it however your BR can afford it. ZG told me to bet the whole $25, i don't think my BR can handle that, i'm not sure, i get to play this side bet in a few days, i'll report how it goes and what i decide to bet. I'll probably match whatever bet i have out at the time. Somewhere between $15-20 depending on the game.

I have won roughly 50% of my past LL sidebets at TC > +4. but it was not a statistically relevant sample size :/
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
It seems to me that, just like backcounting in +EV situations ,that there would be some ideal betting ramp to maximize EV as well as keeping the Kelly Rule in line, just as you metioned.
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
bj bob said:
It seems to me that, just like backcounting in +EV situations ,that there would be some ideal betting ramp to maximize EV as well as keeping the Kelly Rule in line, just as you metioned.
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i totally understand what you're getting at, but it could be viewed similarly to a +EV BJ promotion, like 2:1 on all BJs. i played one of those, where everyone at the table was betting table max, with a 1% edge for those playing proper BS.

at some TC, the LL side bet is +1% EV, So in theory you could play it just like a promotion. but you could easily make up your own ramp for it, though it might look kinda funny to the pit as they watch you ramp both your bet and side bet. :eyepatch:

one of the first times i played it was at a $1 table, and the true count hit +4, i placed a pathetic $5 LL side bet out, with a $10 bet, with a $10 match play. i won the hand +$20 and the side bet at 9:1 payout. it was magical and highly suspicious as i was betting $1 a hand leading up to this one winner.... i win!
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
Mimosine said:
i totally understand what you're getting at, but it could be viewed similarly to a +EV BJ promotion, like 2:1 on all BJs. i played one of those, where everyone at the table was betting table max, with a 1% edge for those playing proper BS.

at some TC, the LL side bet is +1% EV, So in theory you could play it just like a promotion. but you could easily make up your own ramp for it, though it might look kinda funny to the pit as they watch you ramp both your bet and side bet. :eyepatch:

one of the first times i played it was at a $1 table, and the true count hit +4, i placed a pathetic $5 LL side bet out, with a $10 bet, with a $10 match play. i won the hand +$20 and the side bet at 9:1 payout. it was magical and highly suspicious as i was betting $1 a hand leading up to this one winner.... i win!
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I can see the problem at a $1 table, however, the LL side bet doesn't kick in until the TC hits +4 at which point you should already have you main bet maxed out, and therefore flat. So, if your're playing at a $5 min. table, your max. bet would be at least $20 SD $30/40 DD and at least $50 on 6D, so increasing the LL bet shouldn't pose a big problem, no?
 
S

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
In 8 deck using KO with an IRC of -28 play Lucky Ladies at:

4 decks remaining RC=16
3 decks remaining RC=13
2 decks remaining RC=10
1 deck remaining RC=7

Or if this is too hard to remember then average the count out to RC of 12. You can expect to add about $2/hr to your EV with LL. The ability to place this bet will not come up too often so when the count calls for it, play the maximum of $25, don't waste your time putting $5 on this bet.(Think of it like insurance it is all or nothing). Also try to play on other peoples spots if its allowed and if they will let you. If you are say playing one spot of $100 and the count calls for a LL bet to be placed it is wise to spread to 2 hands of $50 if the opportunity is available. The variance with this game is huge so don't get discouraged if it seems like you are losing at it all the time, all of a sudden they will come in bunches.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
SystemsTrader said:
In 8 deck using KO with an IRC of -28 play Lucky Ladies at:

4 decks remaining RC=16
3 decks remaining RC=13
2 decks remaining RC=10
1 deck remaining RC=7

Or if this is too hard to remember then average the count out to RC of 12. You can expect to add about $2/hr to your EV with LL. The ability to place this bet will not come up too often so when the count calls for it, play the maximum of $25, don't waste your time putting $5 on this bet.(Think of it like insurance it is all or nothing). Also try to play on other peoples spots if its allowed and if they will let you. If you are say playing one spot of $100 and the count calls for a LL bet to be placed it is wise to spread to 2 hands of $50 if the opportunity is available. The variance with this game is huge so don't get discouraged if it seems like you are losing at it all the time, all of a sudden they will come in bunches.
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I'm glad you posted. The drift I was getting was to start betting at the pivot point (+4) or +5 or +6, whereas you are saying at the very least, +7. When you say 1 deck remaining, I assume you mean 1 deck left to play, since they generally place the cut card around the 2-deck level. Also, I didn't realize that the number of decks played a significant role in the KO system. How do I convert to a TC, if that is in fact what you are doing, in the KO system?
 
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