8th outing - Lessons learned

Summary:
Lessons learned (the hard way):

1. Pen. Pen. Pen.
2. Eight-deck sucks.
3. Go West, young man, go West! (or wherever they have SD and DD)
4. Don't waste you advantage gains on non-advantage games.
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Played a whopping 24 hours between Monday morning Tuesday Evening in AC, with a couple of time outs for food and rest.

For the first 17 hours I lost $500 playing 8-deck (Lost $29 an hour). Poor pen. Also, counts kept staying close to exit points for wonging out (plus and minus) sucking me in to playing too much in negative territory. Poor pen in 8-deck means waiting long times for no, or only a round or two of, positive counts in most cases. Even heads up with the dealer doesn't help that much because you have to play too many negative rounds to get to the positive ones.

For the last 7 hours, at a different casino, I won $950 playing 6-deck (Won $136 an hour). Had decent pen, until (I think) they suspected counting and cut off more than 2 decks! Suddenly I left to get something to eat! Easier to wong out in 6-deck. and easy at this casino to make some money and move to another table in another location with a differesnt pit crew. The positive counts come a lot more quickly in 6-deck. What a difference!

Lessons? Pen. Pen. Pen. And 6-deck is a lot easier than 8-deck. I can't wait until my trip to Vegas where I can try single and double deck!

Also, I'll always remember this trip, since I didn't play a single slot machine for the first time ever in over twenty years!

My gambling buddy made money as usual with no advantage at slots, blackjack and craps. I don't know how he does it! When he is at my table at least he does follow my betting lead, because he figures my counting works, but he doesn't have any interest in learning how to do it himself. Go figure!

24 hours of play in 36 hours? That's hardcore. Fatigue become a problem?

The maths seem to indicate that heads up play-all at a 8d game is horrible, but only slightly more horrible than heads up play-all at a 6d game. To me, it feels much worse. I mean, even if you start off the top of an 8d game and wong out when the count is -1, you might just sit there looking at an empty table with a partially dealt shoe with a negative count... and what the heck good does that do you?

What every good counter needs at an 8D table is just one or two fast-playing ploppies.

Yeah, 8 deck is absolutely awful to play, especially with poor penetration. It's doable, if you can find several tables with 1-2 players and back-count them. But it's not fun, and should only be done as a last resort.

Great tip for 8 deck

aslan said:

Summary:
Lessons learned (the hard way):

1. Pen. Pen. Pen.
2. Eight-deck sucks.
3. Go West, young man, go West! (or wherever they have SD and DD)
4. Don't waste you advantage gains on non-advantage games.
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For the first 17 hours I lost $500 playing 8-deck (Lost $29 an hour). Poor pen. Also, counts kept staying close to exit points for wonging out (plus and minus) sucking me in to playing too much in negative territory. Poor pen in 8-deck means waiting long times for no, or only a round or two of, positive counts in most cases. Even heads up with the dealer doesn't help that much because you have to play too many negative rounds to get to the positive ones.


Lessons? Pen. Pen. Pen. And 6-deck is a lot easier than 8-deck. I can't wait until my trip to Vegas where I can try single and double deck!


QUOTE]
Just pull your bet back from the circle, fold you arms, lean back in your seat, close your eyes and tell the dealer "Could you wake me up when the TC is at +2?"

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EasyRhino said:

24 hours of play in 36 hours? That's hardcore. Fatigue become a problem?

The maths seem to indicate that heads up play-all at a 8d game is horrible, but only slightly more horrible than heads up play-all at a 6d game. To me, it feels much worse. I mean, even if you start off the top of an 8d game and wong out when the count is -1, you might just sit there looking at an empty table with a partially dealt shoe with a negative count... and what the heck good does that do you?

What every good counter needs at an 8D table is just one or two fast-playing ploppies.

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I always play this way. I drove 3 1/2 hours before I began playing, and drove 3 1/2 hours after I had finished. Sometimes it gets to me, but a red bull gets me back on track. I lost the count once and was forced to flat bet the remainder of the deck. Also, I missed someone's bust card once or twice and had to assume it was a ten. Since I use KO it's pretty easy to keep the count even when tired. When my brain gets completely washed out, I quit and get some sleep.

I always had full or close to full tables at 6D. The 8D got to heads up in the early morning hours for a while.

One thing I returned to doing this trip was to always bet the KO recommended 1X to 10X spread except when I felt the need for camo. I had become a little fearful after a major loss one trip and had been only spreading 1X to 7X or 8X.

Once when I had won several $100 bets in a row, I got a little antsy that the house would win a few back, so I lowered my bet to $75 and $50. This in hindsight was not logical since there is no reason to ever bet less than the recommended level when you have the advantage. Do you think otherwise?

Also, this trip I fought the fear of getting ahead and pulling up to protect my gains. If I really have a long-term advantage, then the more I play, the more I enhance my chances of staying in the winner's circle. Like someone instructed me in a previous thread, the only valid reasons to quit playing are to get some rest, to eat, to do something prescheduled, etc.--never because you're losing or you're afraid you might start losing.

The last thing I'd like to mention is that one ploppy in the game told my friend who sat next to her that I always seemed to know when to bet, I must be counting. It happened right after some swings from $10 to $100 bets in which I won all or nearly all. He said the dealer overheard and gave her a knowing look. Another time, a young ploppy said as I left the game, "You always know when to bet high." In this session I was down almost $300, then suddenly in a positive count I reversed it and came out $22 winner. If ploppys can see it, no doubt the house is completely aware. I wonder why they don't do something, although at one table the yellow card cut out a good two and a half decks and I suddenly had to leave for dinner. lol

aslan said:

I had become a little fearful after a major loss one trip and had been only spreading 1X to 7X or 8X.

Once when I had won several $100 bets in a row, I got a little antsy that the house would win a few back, so I lowered my bet to $75 and $50.

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Careful, I think both of these would be good examples of pussing out. Even a 10x spread is highly marginal in play-all vs 6d... you've got to be wonging also for 10x to work.

And if you've got your max spet at a level that is reasonable for your bankroll and suitable for you emotionally, then lowering your max is just pussing out.

Sometimes I find it tough to push out the money for the big bets also. However, since one thing I will do as a token nod to cover is imitate some sort of progression (positive and negative), I'll just start doubling my bets as long as the count calls for it. By then, you're so on autopilot that it gets to the point where you're like "well, the system calls for it now" and you shove out the bets. Tightrope between ploppydom and advantage play with that, though, if you ever actually started following it as a "system".

The one lesson not learned...

... is that you were playing negative counts at all in AC. Playing a negative count is no different than playing a slot machine- wasted EV. There are so many tables on the Boardwalk that if the table you are sitting at goes negative, there's no reason for not getting up and going to another table. Then you will find 6D vs. 8D makes very little difference, because the additional time it takes to get to a good count in 8D is made up for by the fact a good count will on the average last longer. Pen and aggressive Wonging in and out is how you live in AC.

Moving around between tables, pits, and casinos will protect you from heat more than just about anything else. When I raid the Boardwalk I'll cover between the Showboat and the Hilton once or twice per day. So if anyone is watching, by the time anyone notices my skill level should probably be analyzed, I'm down the road and the surveillance guy can go back to his coffee and Game Boy.

Decent DD games are rare these days, and at your betting level you will find most of them to the South, not West. (Biloxi.) But there are a couple of shoe games down there that are even better. SD- totally different world and style of play.

aslan said:

Played a whopping 24 hours between Monday morning Tuesday Evening in AC, with a couple of time outs for food and rest...

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...and prayer. zg

although at one table the yellow card cut out a good two and a half decks and I suddenly had to leave for dinner

The next time you go back to this place, don't be surprised if the cut card goes midshoe on you very quickly. I have a feeling your number is up there.

one question though, what kind of advantage (if any) would you get if you play all say w/ 1 other player on the table going 1-10 at 8D 75% pen AC rules? i personally rraaarrreely play all, but i'd like to know

bluewhale said:

one question though, what kind of advantage (if any) would you get if you play all say w/ 1 other player on the table going 1-10 at 8D 75% pen AC rules? i personally rraaarrreely play all, but i'd like to know

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I don't have the book with me, but if my memory is correct, it's very low, like 0.044%, or something like that. If you're one on one, you can't wong in and out; you either keep playing or quit. However, I didn't have to play heads up for an entire shoe.

zengrifter said:

...and prayer. zg

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Because I play so poorly? We may not always agree in the Zen Zone, but in Blackjack I consider you Master of the Game, and I am always ready to humbly heed whatever words of wisdom you may speak. I know I am a rank beginner and hardly more than an everyday ploppy, so I would appreciate any advice you may wish to give. In one thread I read that only 1 out of 500 counters makes any money, so I am anxious to learn and strictly adhere to the right way of doing things. Aslan :dog:

Automatic Monkey said:

... is that you were playing negative counts at all in AC. Playing a negative count is no different than playing a slot machine- wasted EV. There are so many tables on the Boardwalk that if the table you are sitting at goes negative, there's no reason for not getting up and going to another table. Then you will find 6D vs. 8D makes very little difference, because the additional time it takes to get to a good count in 8D is made up for by the fact a good count will on the average last longer. Pen and aggressive Wonging in and out is how you live in AC.

Moving around between tables, pits, and casinos will protect you from heat more than just about anything else. When I raid the Boardwalk I'll cover between the Showboat and the Hilton once or twice per day. So if anyone is watching, by the time anyone notices my skill level should probably be analyzed, I'm down the road and the surveillance guy can go back to his coffee and Game Boy.

Decent DD games are rare these days, and at your betting level you will find most of them to the South, not West. (Biloxi.) But there are a couple of shoe games down there that are even better. SD- totally different world and style of play.

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The aggressive wonging out in 8d has taken me a long time to accept due to laziness I guess. The 8d takes so long to play out, so if I wong out with a marker I have to stay out a long time waiting for a new shoe, unless of course I can find another table with seats at the shuffle. If it's not crowded I can then backcount, but if there's only one seat I have to grab it at the beginning, and maybe have to wong out again. I have to get over this stupid notion that maybe I will get lucky even if it's an unacceptable count, when I know I'll lose more times than I'll win. Thanks for the needed correction. What I really need is a two-by-four upside my head!

aslan said:

Because I play so poorly? We may not always agree in the Zen Zone, but in Blackjack I consider you Master of the Game, and I am always ready to humbly heed whatever words of wisdom you may speak. I know I am a rank beginner and hardly more than an everyday ploppy, so I would appreciate any advice you may wish to give. In one thread I read that only 1 out of 500 counters makes any money, so I am anxious to learn and strictly adhere to the right way of doing things. Aslan :dog:

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Thanks, for the great story, sorry the cards werent fallin for ya.
To be honest ive never even tangled with an 8D game. I do know those 6D games are extremely tough beat, especially in a play-all enviroment. As a matter of fact, unless you employ some serious wongin, with some big spreads or team play. I really dont see these games being that profitable.
That said, ive devoted most of my time and effort into DD games. When you refer to 1n500(solo) counters that are successfull. I truly believe the primary reason for this is game selection. But as you may know game selection these days are less common. Over the last ten years the state gaming commisions have been red flagged and have become more aware and have a better understanding about the rules and conditions and what it actually takes to beat this game. Game selection, i believe is becoming a thing of the past, is it not??
Everyday, more and more single and double deck games are being replaced with 6 and 8D games with lousy pen, paranoid pit bosses, higher table limits, less seats availiable, less comps, legitimate proof of i.d, SARS reports, CSMS, 6:5,NME, selective shuffling, back-offs, barings, carnival games, and the list goes on and on. Yesterdays games, are not todays games. Is it still worth it? Even if you find a good game, your EV is offset from travel exspenses.
I dont know? are the days of blackjack gone?? Sorry, gotta cut this short.

jack said:

I dont know? are the days of blackjack gone?? Sorry, gotta cut this short.

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No, because it's still enjoyable...and even at a 1% house edge, people can still win from time to time. Perhaps the question should be: Are the days of profitable card counting gone?

Not pickin' at your post, just adding my comment.

good luck

I'm dubious of your ability to play 24 hours out of 36 at peak form.
While its not impossible,its pretty improbable.I'd play less and rest more.

jack said:

Yesterdays games, are not todays games. Is it still worth it? I dont know? are the days of blackjack gone??

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No way! The game is probably more profitable now than ever before! Sure, the game has changed quite a bit but so have the players and their strategies. The game has evolved but in doing so it has opened up new and greater opportunities to get big advantages. As the game continues to change I can only imagine what the next big scores will be.

(Dead link: http://www.hitorstand.net/forum/showthread.php?t=3618)

-Sonny-

“If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude. Don’t complain.” –Maya Angelou

shadroch said:

I'm dubious of your ability to play 24 hours out of 36 at peak form.
While its not impossible,its pretty improbable.I'd play less and rest more.

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Peak form? No. But I didn't do badly enough not to do it. I'm obsessive maybe, and strong willed and determined. If I thought I made devastating errors, I would stop the long sessions. Wonging out during neg counts, Red Bull, and food breaks seem to suit me fine. When I do sleep in a casino hotel I am never able to get more than 4 hours tops. I often wake up with a count going on in my head. lol I guess I am single-minded when I play Blackjack. And BTW, I did my best after only four hours sleep, but I attribute the difference to how easy I find 6-deck compared to 8-deck, and the better pen at this particular casino. When you wong out you don't have to wait long for the reshuffle. The positive counts come quicker if they're going to come at all. And the better pen provides longer positive runs.

Sonny said:

No way! The game is probably more profitable now than ever before! Sure, the game has changed quite a bit but so have the players and their strategies. The game has evolved but in doing so it has opened up new and greater opportunities to get big advantages. As the game continues to change I can only imagine what the next big scores will be.

(Dead link: http://www.hitorstand.net/forum/showthread.php?t=3618)

-Sonny-

“If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude. Don’t complain.” –Maya Angelou

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Good write-up at the link, Sonny. Thanks for keeping us upbeat! Even better days are ahead. I don't think the casinos find card counters to be even a hiccup on their P&L statements. As long as the general public thinks the games are beatable, they will continue to crowd the BJ tables. It just boggles my imagination that the general public, nevertheless, refuses to make the effort to learn card counting. I guess they believe they were born lucky, and so do the thousands of people who lose their life-savings each year in Las Vegas. Go figure!

bluewhale said:

one question though, what kind of advantage (if any) would you get if you play all say w/ 1 other player on the table going 1-10 at 8D 75% pen AC rules? i personally rraaarrreely play all, but i'd like to know

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EV .54%
SCORE 9.25