A Hello From A New Member

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
Hello all,

After checking up on these forums for a few months now, I finally decided to create an account, in the event that I might something meaningful to add to today's AP conversations.

A little about my experience as a card-counter now. My first system was the Hi-Opt I system without an ace side-count. I later started using an Ace side-count. Then, I upgraded to the also Hi-Opt II system without an ace-side count. Later on, I added the side-count into the mix. I played this system (on CVBJ V5) for a long-time without error, but after having read into zengrifter's and Snyder's rhetoric explaining why Hi-Opt II is "antiquated" or even "obsolete," I decided to switch over to the Zen Count. I, however, decided to keep using the 90 some indexes that I was using with Hi-Opt II, instead of learning the ones in the complete Zen Count. (The only indexes I switched were the ones for the insurance count and soft 18 v. A). It was surprising to me (at the time, but no longer now) how negligible the penalty was for using indexes that were meant for a different level 2 count. My results of 1 billion hand simulations (with CV Data) were as follows if you're interested:

Penalty for Using Hi-Opt II indexes with the Zen Count

Single Deck, S17, Split to 4, Resplit Aces, 3:2 BJ, DOA2, NS, .75 Pen, DAS, Head-On

BSE: +0.034%

Zen Count Proper Indexes (Flat Bet): +0.722%
Zen Count with Hi-Opt II Indexes (Flat Bet): +0.691%

Penalty = 0.031% (31 cents for every $1000 wagered)

Benefit of Using Hi-Opt II indexes as opposed to none: 0.657% ($6.57 for every $1000 wagered)

Six Decks, S17, Split to 4, Resplit Aces, 3:2 BJ, DOA2, NS, 0.80 Pen, DAS, Head-On

BSE: -0.292%

Zen Count Proper Indexes (Flat Bet): -0.175%
Zen Count with Hi-Opt II Indexes (Flat Bet): -0.181%

Penalty = 0.006% (6 cents for every $1000 wagered)

Benefit of Using Hi-Opt II indexes as opposed to none: 0.111% ($1.11 for every $1000 wagered)

(Yes, I do realize that these benchmark games are overly good and are not found in today's gambling environment, but the conclusion of the experiment remains unchanged)


The books that I have read include The World's Greatest Blackjack by the pseudonamed Lance Humble and Play Blackjack Like the Pros by Kevin Blackwood. Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger and Burning the Tables in Las Vegas by Ian Anderson are in the mail, on the way to me, though.

One last thing. I have not stepped foot in a casino yet, despite card-counting being a hobby that I devote around 4-6 hours of each day to. This is simply because my bankroll is only $2500, and as my simulations indicate, I cannot make enough money to make the hobby even worth while ($10/ hour is somewhat dismal) after paying fixed costs (gas and etc.), without assuming a very high RoR. So for now, I plan to just save money, keep using CVData and CVBJ and counting down my 8-deck shoe in the meantime. P.S., those two programs are God's gifts to AP's. I cannot tell you how many poor playing strategies I've eliminated through using these programs.

I look forward to conversing with you all on the forums.

P.S., I'm from MI, so if you're in the midwest, get at me.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
Welcome aboard. I must tell you there is zero reason why you should not be hitting casinos. There is no reson to wait until you have a bigger BR. The rate of return might be low but would you rather get experiance playing low limit or playing for serious money.
Get yourself out to Vegas. The time to get established with player accounts is when you are just starting and are no threat to the casinos.
 
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Mr. T

Well-Known Member
Just a thought here. Just as the new member embark into real CC play in the casino. I know that CC is as American as apple pie.

But this comes at the tremendous cost to the casino in providing the shoe game. It is not just the slower play by the dealer. There is surveilance team, the time occupied by higher management and having the security team required . In business it is never good to eject a customer and the collateral damage to be seen by other players.

I suppose the threat and loss to the casino must be small. The percentage of BS players I would put down as less than 1% and the perfect CC players would be 1% of this. So they are looking at 1 in 10,000 customers. So I suppose the casino would take this as a build-in cost that the US casino have to put up with. Or is it.

Some Vegas casino already have the CSM and I suppose for the small player it is either take it or leave it. As the casino try cutting their cost further I expect you will see more CSM. Especially if Vegas get more foreign tourist who hasn't got a clue in the difference between CSM and the shoe game.
 

zengrifter

Banned
Southpaw said:
my bankroll is only $2500, and as my simulations indicate, I cannot make enough money to make the hobby even worth while ($10/ hour is somewhat dismal) after paying fixed costs (gas and etc.), without assuming a very high RoR.
Unless that amount is a first installment of a replenish-able/virtual BR that can be reframed at $10k - then you could kick-off at $10 units. and/or wong $25 to 2x$50 bets. During your playing days you would have no other cost but gas - all rooms and food would be comped.

Don't even think about reverting back to HO2 w/sidecount. However, I have heard recently that HO2 WITHOUT sidecount will beat ZEN in (some?) sims. Perhaps you could look into this and report your findings? zg
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
shadroch:

Here is why I choose not to play with my current bankroll. Let's assume that my job would be able to help me replenish my bankroll should I hit a bad swing of cards. I'll calculate the RoR for a bankroll of both $5000. I believe it would be a bad assumption to say my bankroll could be played as $10000, seeing as my college student status only lets me profit about $200 per month from my job. Let's also assume that I am able to play in a casino with extremely favorable rules. One's that are much better than the three casinos that I have to choose from. The rules will be:


Six-Deck, S17, Split to 4, Resplit Aces, 3:2 BJ, DOA2, NS, .75 Pen, DAS, Head-On


This will be my betting schedule that is derived from a six-deck game that is not quite as good as the one we are assuming and it assumes a $5000 bankroll.

TC < 0: $5
TC = 0-2: $10
TC = 3: $15
TC = 4: $25
TC = 5: $40
TC = 6: $55
TC = 7: $65
TC = 8: $80
TC = 9: $90
TC = 10: $100


Let us further assume that I use quite an aggressive playing strategy:

1. Enter when TC => 3 (rounded), Wong when TC <= 0
2. Spread according to the betting schedule.
3. Zen Count (Hi-Opt II indexes)


According to a 1 billion hand simulation, I would still only be making $12.80 an hour and my RoR would be quite high still.

Hourly Win Rate: $12.80
RoR (TB = $5000): 9.38%


My fixed costs for going to Casino 1 would be $36 in gas. Casino 2 would be $60 in gas and Casino 3 would have fixed costs of $12 plus 0.08% of any currency I exchange.

Conclusion: I should not be playing yet, especially since the rules used for this sim were much better than any of these three casinos could offer and the playing strategy, in my opinion, is rather aggressive. Moreover, the RoR is high and would be MUCH higher if I were to simulate the rules I'd actually be playing against. Also, going to Vegas would have even higher fixed costs and I'm not yet 21, so I would only be able to play in very few casinos.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
Southpaw said:
shadroch:

Here is why I choose not to play with my current bankroll. Let's assume that my job would be able to help me replenish my bankroll should I hit a bad swing of cards. I'll calculate the RoR for a bankroll of both $5000. I believe it would be a bad assumption to say my bankroll could be played as $10000, seeing as my college student status only lets me profit about $200 per month from my job. Let's also assume that I am able to play in a casino with extremely favorable rules. One's that are much better than the three casinos that I have to choose from. The rules will be:


Six-Deck, S17, Split to 4, Resplit Aces, 3:2 BJ, DOA2, NS, .75 Pen, DAS, Head-On


This will be my betting schedule that is derived from a six-deck game that is not quite as good as the one we are assuming and it assumes a $5000 bankroll.

TC < 0: $5
TC = 0-2: $10
TC = 3: $15
TC = 4: $25
TC = 5: $40
TC = 6: $55
TC = 7: $65
TC = 8: $80
TC = 9: $90
TC = 10: $100


Let us further assume that I use quite an aggressive playing strategy:

1. Enter when TC => 3 (rounded), Wong when TC <= 0
2. Spread according to the betting schedule.
3. Zen Count (Hi-Opt II indexes)


According to a 1 billion hand simulation, I would still only be making $12.80 an hour and my RoR would be quite high still.

Hourly Win Rate: $12.80
RoR (TB = $5000): 9.38%


My fixed costs for going to Casino 1 would be $36 in gas. Casino 2 would be $60 in gas and Casino 3 would have fixed costs of $12 plus 0.08% of any currency I exchange.

Conclusion: I should not be playing yet, especially since the rules used for this sim were much better than any of these three casinos could offer and the playing strategy, in my opinion, is rather aggressive. Moreover, the RoR is high and would be MUCH higher if I were to simulate the rules I'd actually be playing against.

You are trying to play like a pro when you are not even an amateur.
You are trying to fly before you learn how to walk.
Get to a casino with good rules. Play a few hours either flat betting or with a 1-4 spread. Next trip, try wonging.
Your cost will be minimal and you'll learn much more about the game and yourself than playing four hours a day at your kitchen table.
 

zengrifter

Banned
Southpaw said:
Hourly Win Rate: $12.80
RoR (TB = $5000): 9.38% [/I][/COLOR]

My fixed costs for going to Casino 1 would be $36 in gas. Casino 2 would be $60 in gas and Casino 3 would have fixed costs of $12 plus 0.08% of any currency I exchange.

Conclusion: I should not be playing yet, especially since the rules used for this sim were much better than any of these three casinos could offer and the playing strategy, in my opinion, is rather aggressive. Moreover, the RoR is high and would be MUCH higher if I were to simulate the rules I'd actually be playing against. Also, going to Vegas would have even higher fixed costs and I'm not yet 21, so I would only be able to play in very few casinos.
Agreed. Ask your grandparents for a $25,000 grubstake. zg
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
zengrifter: I did the simulation and made a new thread about it called "Zen Count Vs. Hi-Opt II (No Ace Side-Count)."
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
You are trying to play like a pro when you are not even an amateur.
You are trying to fly before you learn how to walk.
Get to a casino with good rules. Play a few hours either flat betting or with a 1-4 spread. Next trip, try wonging.
Your cost will be minimal and you'll learn much more about the game and yourself than playing four hours a day at your kitchen table.
I agree with you to a certain degree about "trying to fly before I learn to walk." Most certainly, when I do start playing for real, I am NOT going to be trying to use some of the strategies I have detailed.

However, I just don't see the motivation to begin yet for the reasons I have described. Perhaps when I turn 21, and I have a larger array of casinos (with better rules to play against), then I will begin play. But for now, I don't see the reason to play when the EV of most any trip would be negative after paying for my fixed costs.
 

BUZZARD

Well-Known Member
Dood I lol'ed when I saw your post- 4-6 hours a day practicing software? Man, I thought I was addicted because I lie to my wife and sneak away from work to the casino every chance available- but you- YOU seem like a real freak. One thing is for certain- when you finally grow hair on your balls and hit the casino your going to be a BEAST. Practicing ZEN 6 hours a day LOL. If you can just ignore the waitresses perky tits and the drunk Hick next to you barking insults you will get the monies.
I'm kidding about the hair that I'm sure you already have on your balls-$2,500 is weak - If you only have ten min tables available your going to be at risk right away if it gets ugly. And its not like you will want to drive that roll into the ground- if you lose $1,800 your going to go home to your dorm wimpering greedily coveting the pathetic remains for hookers and blow or whatever it is you like to do when your down and out.
I just started with a $2,500 roll a few months ago- I also grew up in Michigan (but escaped) -look into it. I play eight deckers only which is what I fear you are facing too. I get S17 and surrender here though. I backcount only which is not a realistic way to go through life unless you enjoy pain, boredom, and counting cards for no reason(which apparently you do!!). I have played 31 sessions for 121 hours and lost 5 of them. I run good. I have $5,500 now.But I do not doubt anymore the power of backcounting to limit negative variance. I hope this is an option maybe you can look into but of course you cannot have overcrowded conditions-
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
BUZZARD said:
Dood I lol'ed when I saw your post- 4-6 hours a day practicing software? Man, I thought I was addicted because I lie to my wife and sneak away from work to the casino every chance available- but you- YOU seem like a real freak. One thing is for certain- when you finally grow hair on your balls and hit the casino your going to be a BEAST. Practicing ZEN 6 hours a day LOL. If you can just ignore the waitresses perky tits and the drunk Hick next to you barking insults you will get the monies.
I'm kidding about the hair that I'm sure you already have on your balls-$2,500 is weak - If you only have ten min tables available your going to be at risk right away if it gets ugly. And its not like you will want to drive that roll into the ground- if you lose $1,800 your going to go home to your dorm wimpering greedily coveting the pathetic remains for hookers and blow or whatever it is you like to do when your down and out.
I just started with a $2,500 roll a few months ago- I also grew up in Michigan (but escaped) -look into it. I play eight deckers only which is what I fear you are facing too. I get S17 and surrender here though. I backcount only which is not a realistic way to go through life unless you enjoy pain, boredom, and counting cards for no reason(which apparently you do!!). I have played 31 sessions for 121 hours and lost 5 of them. I run good. I have $5,500 now.But I do not doubt anymore the power of backcounting to limit negative variance. I hope this is an option maybe you can look into but of course you cannot have overcrowded conditions-
It is good to hear that you got off to a great start! Yes, I agree that getting out of MI for play would be beneficial. I'm jealous that you get the surrender option as surrender is not only beneficial in terms of improving one's EV, but it also helps to reduce variance.

And about Wonging / Backcounting. In my opinion, doing these two things are far more important than the spread you are using. Moreover, it comes with a far smaller variance than using a liberal spread as well.
 
Southpaw

Southpaw said:
It is good to hear that you got off to a great start! Yes, I agree that getting out of MI for play would be beneficial. I'm jealous that you get the surrender option as surrender is not only beneficial in terms of improving one's EV, but it also helps to reduce variance.

And about Wonging / Backcounting. In my opinion, doing these two things are far more important than the spread you are using. Moreover, it comes with a far smaller variance than using a liberal spread as well.
Come on man,,,you put in all this work and don't even know the games close to you,,wether good, bad, or great.......doesn't add up.

I point you to two excellent locales for your play and you seem to hold your nose up at them.:confused:

A tip,,,show some gratitude when you have been given some solid leads.


CP
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
creeping panther said:
Come on man,,,you put in all this work and don't even know the games close to you,,wether good, bad, or great.......doesn't add up.

I point you to two excellent locales for your play and you seem to hold your nose up at them.:confused:

A tip,,,show some gratitude when you have been given some solid leads.


CP
I'm going to respond to this via PM.
 

zengrifter

Banned
creeping panther said:
Come on man,,,you put in all this work and don't even know the games close to you,,wether good, bad, or great.......doesn't add up.

I point you to two excellent locales for your play and you seem to hold your nose up at them.:confused:

A tip,,,show some gratitude when you have been given some solid leads.

CP
He's not quite ready, probably anticipating some moolah soon,
and he's too sharp to gamble with what he has. Kudos Spaw. zg
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
Real blackjack is completely different from sims. At the very least, you need to get your feet wet. There exist playable games that are not horribly far. Play them. Or find something else to spend your money on. If I was only pulling in $200 extra a month and I had 2500 dollars laying around I would want to do SOMETHING with it. If you want to be "safe" you're going to be waiting a long time at 200 a month.

In MI I believe there are tribal casinos that offer $5 min BJ and maybe even $3? If you won't spread enough to make a decent winrate at those due to RoR issues, you can at least do it for the learning experience.

Lastly do not go to Vegas, this is an unnecessary expense and most of the cheap games there are garbage.
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
Blue Efficacy said:
Real blackjack is completely different from sims. At the very least, you need to get your feet wet. There exist playable games that are not horribly far. Play them. Or find something else to spend your money on. If I was only pulling in $200 extra a month and I had 2500 dollars laying around I would want to do SOMETHING with it. If you want to be "safe" you're going to be waiting a long time at 200 a month.

In MI I believe there are tribal casinos that offer $5 min BJ and maybe even $3? If you won't spread enough to make a decent winrate at those due to RoR issues, you can at least do it for the learning experience.

Lastly do not go to Vegas, this is an unnecessary expense and most of the cheap games there are garbage.
Once I get my pharmacy degree, bankroll will NOT be an issue, so this profiting by only $200 per month is only temporary.
 
Sp

Southpaw said:
Once I get my pharmacy degree, bankroll will NOT be an issue, so this profiting by only $200 per month is only temporary.
SP,

My son received his Doctorate in Pharmacology in 2006 and he was lucky to have parents that picked up the entire tab. Unless your parents do the same the student loans you will incur will badly limit your BJ bank roll for years after you graduate.

Good luck to you.:)

CP
 

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
creeping panther said:
SP,

My son received his Doctorate in Pharmacology in 2006 and he was lucky to have parents that picked up the entire tab. Unless your parents do the same the student loans you will incur will badly limit your BJ bank roll for years after you graduate.

Good luck to you.:)

CP
A majority of it is being covered by the university and state through grants. I have a lot of them. Grandparents are picking up the rest of the tab.
 
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