Profit report

psyduck said:

So you must have used a betting progression. I used one before and at one point was more than 200 units up. Then I lost it all back. Based on simulation, betting progression is doomed to lose given enough time.

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Someday, you might regret making that statement, because it's not so. A progression system will work and win in the long run given the correct playing conditions. This is a voodoo board, well I'm the voodoo man, and he loves a good chicken dinner.

To all the mathematicians out there, go back to the drawing board, because it's possible. In a month, as promised, I will post my next PROFIT report, not a losing report. I'm a honest person, I will not compromise. Believe!

picasso said:

Someday, you might regret making that statement, because it's not so. A progression system will work and win in the long run given the correct playing conditions. This is a voodoo board, well I'm the voodoo man, and he loves a good chicken dinner.

To all the mathematicians out there, go back to the drawing board, because it's possible. In a month, as promised, I will post my next PROFIT report, not a losing report. I'm a honest person, I will not compromise. Believe!

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I could not find any betting progression that could show a positive winning using my simulator. Approximately, how many hands will have been played by your definition of long run?

psyduck said:

That is nothing. Before card counting, I used BS and a betting strategy. At one point my win was more than 200 units. The funny thing is after counting, I am still trying to beat that record.

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You beat me to the punch, Duckie! I have experienced the same thing. Maybe we should both abandon counting and switch to random betting.

StandardDeviant said:

You beat me to the punch, Duckie! I have experienced the same thing. Maybe we should both abandon counting and switch to random betting.

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Isn't that something? I always wonder that, especially after a losing trip counting.

I dont really know how long the run will be, as long as it takes. So far I have played 14,224 hands with a net profit of 770$. Tonight was a slow night, only made 70$. Have to go to bed, work tomorrow. G'night guys.

picasso said:

Someday, you might regret making that statement, because it's not so. A progression system will work and win in the long run given the correct playing conditions. This is a voodoo board, well I'm the voodoo man, and he loves a good chicken dinner.

To all the mathematicians out there, go back to the drawing board, because it's possible. In a month, as promised, I will post my next PROFIT report, not a losing report. I'm a honest person, I will not compromise. Believe!

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ALL mathematicians AGREE that it IS possible for a negative EV player to win at ANY casino game
in the longer run... just that there will be only a tiny percentage that do so. zg

picasso said:

Someday, you might regret making that statement, because it's not so. A progression system will work and win in the long run given the correct playing conditions.

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Let's see, the win per hand equals the expectation per hand times the bet per hand (in the long run of course).

W = E * B, where B > 0

In continuously shuffled games (like online games), E is always a negative number. I'm having trouble coming up with a value for B that results in W > 0.

So unless you've found a site where the rules uniquely favor the player, you'll be out of luck soon. And if you've found a site with rules that favor the player, they'll be out of luck (and out of business) soon.

psyduck said:

I could not find any betting progression that could show a positive winning using my simulator. Approximately, how many hands will have been played by your definition of long run?

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Theoretically, Martingale has a +EV. The only problem is that you need an infinite BR and no table limits to support it, which is impossible or wouldn't happen.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless4.htm

StandardDeviant said:

...for the purposes of evaluating long run results, we should be looking at ~500,000.

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picasso said:

That will take about a year, or more.

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It will only take a few minutes if you know how to analyze a strategy. You could save years of wasted time if you did a little research. How much is a year of your life worth to you?

picasso said:

A progression system will work and win in the long run given the correct playing conditions.

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The only time a progression system will show a long-term profit is when the game has a positive expectation off the top. And even then a progression system will win much less money than a proportional betting system. Even when they work, they fail.

A progression system will never show a long-term win against any game where the house has the advantage. This fact will not be debated. It only takes a little research to understand why. Please read the sticky thread at the top of this forum for more information. There are dozens of links that explain exactly how and why all progression systems are flawed. Reading through some of the other threads in this forum will also show you some detailed explanations of the fallacies in common “gambler’s logic.” Feel free to update us on your progress and discuss your results, but don’t waste our time with any more claims that are blatantly false. Do some research and learn more about the game. Maybe learn a little bit about how to evaluate a betting strategy as well. Claiming to have a winning system when you don’t understand how the system works or how to properly evaluate it is a dangerous move. Betting your money on it is even more dangerous. Encouraging other people to do it is just plain wrong.

-Sonny-

And we have to assume that the people who are running the online casinos have run test scripts consisting of 100's of millions of hands (probably billions, actually) against their BJ playing software to be sure that the software maintains a positive edge for the house. If these people were smart enough to get a web site up and running in the first place, the were smart enough to test their code to verify that it performs as expected. To assume that they haven't done this, and that one is playing a positive expectation game the casino doesn't know about, would be rather naive.

, the were smart enough to test their code to verify that it performs as expected. To assume that they haven't done this, and that one is playing a positive expectation game the casino doesn't know about, would be rather naive.[/QUOTE]


ho,ho,ho I am father Christmas.:eyepatch:

I went thru all the documentation, BJMath and everything, I'm no dumb bunny and I'm pretty good with numbers and probabilities. At one time, the world was flat, it was a given truth. It is easier to build a great wall than to change a closed mind.

SleightOfHand said:

Theoretically, Martingale has a +EV. The only problem is that you need an infinite BR and no table limits to support it, which is impossible or wouldn't happen.

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Your on to something!

picasso said:

I went thru all the documentation, BJMath and everything, I'm no dumb bunny and I'm pretty good with numbers and probabilities. At one time, the world was flat, it was a given truth. It is easier to build a great wall than to change a closed mind.

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Feel free to submit your approach for open discussion on this forum. Until you do, until then it's just an unproven get rich quick scheme, about which no one really cares.

I know the math behind my system, it is sound and logical and I will not discuss it here nor will I write a book on it, because if I did, goodbye chicken dinner, the casinos would adapt. I'm being accused of spreading fallacies; well you have the right to think what you want of the matter and you can even expel me from this site; you know what happened to the first guy who said 'the world it is round'. Better to live with ones old illusions than to accept newer ones. No one has been hurt and according to most people of this site, I'll be the one loosing money. So be it, let me live with my new reality and I WILL continue to make money. I have no more to say on the matter, I will live and let live.

picasso said:

So be it, let me live with my new reality and I WILL continue to make money. I have no more to say on the matter, I will live and let live.

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I wish you well in your quest. If you do in fact have an edge you may make money. I hope you do.

Thread closed

I wish you the best of luck as well. Since you are not willing to discuss your system there is no reason for this thread to continue. This thread will now become just another dead thread in the voodoo forum. Just another thread about a guy with a magic system who couldn't deliver the goods. We should rename this forum the graveyard.

-Sonny-

Sonny said:

. We should rename this forum the graveyard.

-Sonny-

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How about the dumpster? :grin: