Urgent need of analysis for my black jack game

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li_ka_shing168

Active Member
Hi everyone, i will need your help to analyze if its still possible to win in the long run with the black jack game im playing now, Ive started with a bankroll of 4000$, I decided to quit each playing session with a 400$ up or a 400$ down. so I have to lose 10 times in a row before i get bankrupt, each betting unit is 40$, Im wonging and only play at a tc of 2 or above with full indexes , would raise 10$ for each tc that goes up, Im playing at the casino of montreal (8decks, Hsoft17, DAS, split up to 4, Double down on any two cards, no surrender, cant resplit aces, penetration is 65% - 70%,bj 3to2) I get to play around 10 to 20 hands each hour. At the moment, Ive been there three times only and Im already down 1200$. I need advices and comments of all experienced players. It will be an honor for me to hear from you thanks in advance
sincerely
Ka-Shing
 
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beyondbj

Well-Known Member
u will surely get risk of bankrupt within playing 10000-100000 hands ,

i think $10000 capital would be general safety for you
 
I

InPlay

Banned
beyondbj said:
u will surely get risk of bankrupt within playing 10000-100000 hands ,

i think $10000 capital would be general safety for you
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How many of you big shooters on this board have a $100,000 willing to risk. I doubt it. You are talking sims not the real world.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
First of all, you need to find a better game. An 8D game with 65-70% penetration is terrible. You will only play about 5-10 hands per hour, which is a complete waste of time. Even with aggressive Wonging your win rate will be tiny. The H17 and no surrender only make it worse. You cannot make any decent money counting that game. Either find dealers with better penetration or find another casino with a better game.

Your bet spread needs work. In this case your max bet should be around +7 so you should be ramping much faster than you are. Right now you’re only betting about 2 units at that point. You have an advantage since you are Wonging and playing full indices (Really? All 200 or so?) but your win rate will be too small to justify the effort.

Forget about the $400 limit. Losing ten units is nothing to be afraid of. You should be ready to lose 30-60 units per hour in any given session. Quitting at a $400 limit will cause you to walk away from many positive counts, which will lower your win rate even more. Don’t stress out about your short-term results. If you are playing a strong game and you are betting properly you don’t have anything to worry about. Just play as many hands as you can in order to get the money.

-Sonny-
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
beyondbj said:
u will surely get risk of bankrupt within playing 10000-100000 hands ,

i think $10000 capital would be general safety for you
Click to expand...
I second that confirmation.
 
L

li_ka_shing168

Active Member
Sonny said:
First of all, you need to find a better game. An 8D game with 65-70% penetration is terrible. You will only play about 5-10 hands per hour, which is a complete waste of time. Even with aggressive Wonging your win rate will be tiny. The H17 and no surrender only make it worse. You cannot make any decent money counting that game. Either find dealers with better penetration or find another casino with a better game.

Your bet spread needs work. In this case your max bet should be around +7 so you should be ramping much faster than you are. Right now you’re only betting about 2 units at that point. You have an advantage since you are Wonging and playing full indices (Really? All 200 or so?) but your win rate will be too small to justify the effort.

Forget about the $400 limit. Losing ten units is nothing to be afraid of. You should be ready to lose 30-60 units per hour in any given session. Quitting at a $400 limit will cause you to walk away from many positive counts, which will lower your win rate even more. Don’t stress out about your short-term results. If you are playing a strong game and you are betting properly you don’t have anything to worry about. Just play as many hands as you can in order to get the money.

-Sonny-
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thank you very much for your reply, if I still have to lose up to 60 units again, i will be near bankrupt, and with a lil bit more bad luck there will be 0$ left out of the bankroll now that i am already 1200$ down, so my question now, am I over betting my minimum bet of 40$? should I lower it? will it be better if I modified my playing style and wong in only at tc3? what spread should i use? thanks again for your time and help sonny I really appreciate it
Ka-Shing


And thanks to all for the replies too, if u know something that might help out my case, I am pleased to hear from you
 
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Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
Generally your max bet should be around 1% of your bankroll. With a $2,000 bankroll your max bet should be around $20. With a $5 unit size that will give you 400 units to play with, which is still a bit small depending on your tolerance for risk bit it is a start. Betting more than double that will give you a 100% risk of ruin and guarantee that you will eventually go broke. Overbetting your bankroll can be very dangerous. Since you are only playing positive counts you can get away with a smaller bankroll, but that will be something you should decide once you have more information.

Wonging in at +3 won’t help. You will only play about 3-5 hands per hour which is even worse than what you’re getting now. Depending on the rules you might even start Wonging in at +1. The majority of your advantage comes from the “warm” counts, not the “hot” ones. Getting into the game earlier will get you more hands per hour and more profit. And, again, you need to find better games if you want to make any money.

The spread you use will depend on a lot of factors like table minimums, bankroll size, desired risk of ruin, table conditions, heat conditions, etc. For a basic introduction to proper bet sizing, read through the Gamemaster’s Free BJ School in the Free Counting Resources thread. There are also some good tips in the Frequently Asked Questions thread.

-Sonny-
 
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K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
li_ka_shing168 said:
thank you very much for your reply, if I still have to lose up to 60 units again, i will be near bankrupt, and with a lil bit more bad luck there will be 0$ left out of the bankroll now that i am already 1200$ down, so my question now, am I over betting my minimum bet of 40$? should I lower it? will it be better if I modified my playing style and wong in only at tc3? what spread should i use? thanks again for your time and help sonny I really appreciate it
Ka-Shing


And thanks to all for the replies too, if u know something that might help out my case, I am pleased to hear from you
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Well, you are playing an incredibly crappy game no matter what you do like Sonny said.

With $2800, enter at +2 and bet $15, at +3 bet $30, at +4 bet $40, at +5 and above bet $60. Your risk isn't outrageous but you'll make almost nothing -less than $5/hr. But that's a 186 unit roll and isn't too bad. Should last a while anyway.

Or bet more with higher risk if you want and maybe you'll get a little lucky at the beginning. Or bet $10,20,25,40 with much less risk but only make $3/hr kind of thing.

The good news is your win rate is maybe close to 1.5%.

Don't know what you were expecting but it is a crappy game compared to many others - not that they are available to you.

So, always your money, always your choice. Obviously best would be to answer all the questions you are asking now to your own satisfaction before you play to help you decide. Like what were you expecting from your $40 unit and spread with your $4000 roll in the first place?

Here I am doing what I hate most - suggesting to someone else how to bet their money.

Apologies - just suggestions lol.

Basically, if you have to ask strangers how to bet and what to expect from it, maybe the winning play, like in that movie with the defense computer, is
just don't play.

Anyway, best of luck to you.
 
L

li_ka_shing168

Active Member
thank you very much all of you, i went to war again today, i was betting 40, 60, 75 and 100, i was pretty unlucky, there were hands I could have won lots of money and it just didn't pass, I had a hand with a split of 2 sevens plus a double both of them, one hand 14 and the other 19 against a dealer 5, but the dealer pulled 18 so it was tie instead of winning 4 unit of 60 ( 240$) i got nothing , so 240 flew away and then later on, i got a hand of 11 at 75$ I doubled down and i got 21, it was against a pure 16 but the dealer manage to fu**ing 5, to cut off my win, there were more hands like that but these were those i remember the most, I played something like 4 hours, and had the chance to Wong something like 40 hands, first 2 hours was great, i won 375%, but i got own in the last 2 hours, and went home with 75$ win, but i am still down, i will try to look for some other casino to play as u guys suggested me to do, but its pretty hard, because there is no casino near and the nearest takes 2 hours of driving ( gas so expensive now), all the casino in Quebec are owned by the governments and they leave no chance to the players, pretty much of the shoes are played with 8 decks, only in the vip section where u have to wager a minimum of 100$, they give a game of 6d stands on all 17, I think all the crappy in my surroundings just like Montreal . Still wondering what to do improve my case now:cry:
 
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