StandardDeviant
Well-Known Member
So there I was...facing a rainy Sunday and a long list of honey do's. There was only one way out. Crank up CVCX and claim that I was busy doing "work."
I decided to use CVCX to help me get a better understanding of life in the short run. After all, we always talk about EV in the long run, but as John Maynard Keynes put it, "In the long run we are all dead." While I'm not 100% sure, I'm gonna bet that trying to play while dead is harder to do than sneaking back in to play after being backed off at one of the downtown joints for spreading 1:8 on SD.
When I run sims with CVData, the software tells me to not trust results of less than 200 million hands. Let's see, 200 million hands is about 2 million hours of play, or about 1000 years if I could somehow manage to play 2000 hours a year (which I can't). I guess Keynes was right.
I wanted to understand what to expect for a shorter period of play, say up to 5000 hours. This is closer to what I might be able to muster over the next 10 years or so.
So I set up CVCX to model a sample game condition and tell me the results of 100, 200, 300, ... 4900, 5000 hours of play. I looked at EV, +/-3SD, and the probability that my results would be > $0. The attached graph shows the highlights.
Summary of Results
This little exercise was intersting but somewhat unrealistic because it assumed that the minimum bet remained constant even as bankroll increased. Most players would chose to play at higher stakes as they progress in earnings.
I decided to use CVCX to help me get a better understanding of life in the short run. After all, we always talk about EV in the long run, but as John Maynard Keynes put it, "In the long run we are all dead." While I'm not 100% sure, I'm gonna bet that trying to play while dead is harder to do than sneaking back in to play after being backed off at one of the downtown joints for spreading 1:8 on SD.
When I run sims with CVData, the software tells me to not trust results of less than 200 million hands. Let's see, 200 million hands is about 2 million hours of play, or about 1000 years if I could somehow manage to play 2000 hours a year (which I can't). I guess Keynes was right.
I wanted to understand what to expect for a shorter period of play, say up to 5000 hours. This is closer to what I might be able to muster over the next 10 years or so.
So I set up CVCX to model a sample game condition and tell me the results of 100, 200, 300, ... 4900, 5000 hours of play. I looked at EV, +/-3SD, and the probability that my results would be > $0. The attached graph shows the highlights.
Summary of Results
- EV increase linearly as playing hours increase - as expected
- The maximum risk of loss occurs at about 1,100 hours
- Risk of a negative result is pretty low after about 1,300 hours (i.e., a -2SD outcome)
- Risk of a negative result declines to nil after about 3,600 (where "nil" is defined as a >3SD outcome)
This little exercise was intersting but somewhat unrealistic because it assumed that the minimum bet remained constant even as bankroll increased. Most players would chose to play at higher stakes as they progress in earnings.
