Ought to be Required Reading

I think every aspiring card counter ought to read this article. Whether you take it as a warning, or as a challenge, is up to you!
http://blackjackforumonline.com/content/wontwin.html

Canceler said:

I think every aspiring card counter ought to read this article. Whether you take it as a warning, or as a challenge, is up to you!
http://blackjackforumonline.com/content/wontwin.html

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Pretty depressing. It seems to me ROr and money management are the most important factors for card counting. If a person can take enough money, and set it aside strictly for you BJ BR, and Go play as if it is your job. Completely separate yourself from the emotions of the negative swings. I think a person can do pretty well. I am trying to do this myself time will tell how things go...

Wow. Thanks for posting that, Cass. After reading that I almost want to stop now while I'm ahead. Is it really that bad? How come I haven't heard this already? Very few card counters win in the long run? I don't get it.

what ya think Zen ?

Hey ZG,

I read this some time ago...was Arnold just thinking out loud, or is he dealing with reality ?

The simple thing to grasp is that the game is random - unlike the 99.99% of other players, a good counter has the edge in his/her favor - but because its RANDOM the bets you place must be relatively small in relation the the BR. Remember this always and you will not over-bet. As long as you do not over-bet you will be OK. zg

zengrifter said:

The simple thing to grasp is that the game is random - unlike the 99.99% of other players, a good counter has the edge in his/her favor - but because its RANDOM the bets you place must be relatively small in relation the the BR. Remember this always and you will not over-bet. As long as you do not over-bet you will be OK. zg

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Thanks for the clarifying that, ZG. I was a little worried. So just as long as the maximum bet isn't over 1% of bankroll...

TimeKeeper said:

Thanks for the clarifying that, ZG. I was a little worried. So just as long as the maximum bet isn't over 1% of bankroll...

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Or 1.5% divided between two hands. zg

Where I meant to go with this...

I think Snyder's article can be interpreted in at least a couple of different ways.

Interpretation #1: According to this article, my chances of becoming a successful card counter are approximately zero. I can save myself a lot of time, effort, and money if I give up now. So I will.

Interpretation #2: According to this article, I can expect to be down a lot of money at some point. It's likely to happen, and it's normal. When it happens to me, I'll be ready for it, and I will REFUSE to let it discourage me.

I read this article early on, when I was just starting to learn about blackjack, and it helped me get through those times when I was within sight of losing all the money I had set aside for blackjack.

I had Cass's "session from hell" in mind when I hunted down this article, and started this thread. What happened to him is not uncommon. I did not intend to make him say, "Pretty depressing." I say we should go with Interpretation #2.

"All time high"

Wong and others pint out that if you do things correctly you will only be at an "all time high" less than 2% of the time and the rest of the time below that - so you will often feel like you are losing even when you are considerably ahead. zg

Personally, I don't understand the contradictions being made by the author. I purchased Snyder's book, but haven't had a chance to open it yet. I'm assuming he's selling a winning system, so why write an article in which he continually repeats, "You will not win."???

Thinking you are going to win just because you read a blackjack book is as stupid as thinking you'll go to heaven if you read the bible.

The books are the problem

Many of the "how to counting" books will quickly lead you to belive that counting is simple and winning the casino's money is easy. All of us who have really tried it know it anything but easy. I thought that it was just me until I read Barfarkel's Book You've Got Heat. His adventures and problems sound familiar with that of my own. The point being if you plan to learn card counting to make a living, do not give up your day job until you see results of your efforts.

It seems to me that the point of the article isn't so much that you can't win, as you won't win. Snyder makes it clear that very few people have the dedication necessary to make any money playing blackjack.
He is, no doubt, absolutely right.
Even if a casino suspects you of counting cards, they won't rush over immediately and ban you. You can count cards all day, but if your bet spread isn't enough to represent a threat to the casino then you'll just sit turning your wheels but gaining nothing.
Very sobering article though.

I am wondering, at least for most of us who are new or who play only a few times a year, how much a lack of discipline comes into play relating to this article. Are we simply too greedy, and dont know when to quit ? If I go in with $200, play $5 hands, get up say $25-40, do I now think I can take on the bj world ? I know I felt that way after my first counting effort at a land based. I bought $50($5 unit) got up maybe $20, then went down $40 quickly. Decided to try my first attempt at counting. Won $87.50 on my first shoe counting(move over Zengrifter) I was a real pro now !! Then traded a few hands, and decided to go(ok, my wife did) After my heart settled down and we we're heading home, I realized, I would have probably kept playing, if it hadnt been for my wife. I learned a valuable lesson. Be realistic; DO NOT BE GREEDY. Practice like hell, and actually limit your time in the casino and your session time. Zengrifter spoke in another post about unit value in relationship to br being so key. So I throw it out their; be honest with yourself and ask a simple question- "do I feel greedy when I start to win"?
I think this could be key for most of us when we get ahead just a bit. I also want to thank Ken Smith and all the other experts on this forum for putting in the time to give back. It is greatly appreciated.

Gang, of course you can win

The article represents how you will often feel as a card counter. Many professional blackjack players, including three members of the Blackjack Hall of Fame, have told me it's their favorite article about gambling. Two of them have won millions card counting. But they still often feel that way.
.
Just be aware that card counting is not an easy way to millions, especially these days. There are better ways for new players on small bankrolls to make money gambling--especially online gambling.

Arnold Snyder said:

The article represents how you will often feel as a card counter. Many professional blackjack players, including three members of the Blackjack Hall of Fame, have told me it's their favorite article about gambling. Two of them have won millions card counting. But they still often feel that way.
.
Just be aware that card counting is not an easy way to millions, especially these days. There are better ways for new players on small bankrolls to make money gambling--especially online gambling.

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Welcome, Mr. Snyder!

Indeed, welcome aboard Bish!

Arnold, it sounds like you are encouraging new players to play online. Do you by chance have any interests in online gaming ventures? For some reason I feel you do. No question in my mind if you play online "You will lose."

lol...jp

He was talking about online casino bonuses. Apparently he is an expert in that area as well.

newyorkbear said:

Thinking you are going to win just because you read a blackjack book is as stupid as thinking you'll go to heaven if you read the bible.

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It's stupid, but I wouldn't go THAT far. We actually have proof that casinos and cards are real.