AP predators & the wild casino kingdom

sagefr0g · Jul 18, 2010

so many things, so many things.
there are plenty, plenty of analogies for stuff in the natural world, the wild kingdom to the unnatural human contrived wild & crazy casinodoms.
of course the casindom is just a subset of the whole natural world so it's only natural (pun intended) that there be relational types of stuff going on.
but it's amusing to ponder such stuff.
so many things, so many things, where to start.
well, one point of interest and perhaps a contentious one would be the ratio of plays to AP predators and the needs and desires of those predators that can be found in the casinodoms on the planet in the midst of the rest of nature.
competition for AP's can be a bitch or at least seem like one. but it is how it works in the wild kingdom, packs and prides or lone wolves prowl the wilderness hunting down the key to survival for another day. and there is plenty of what seems useless stuff in the wild kingdom for those predators, but environmental biologists and the like would tell you different, that it's not so useless, that there are all sorts of symbiotic things going on that supports the whole system, sort of thing. so just maybe, even competition is when you get right down to it a good thing.
AP's live by the way of numbers in the casindom, live essentially on expected value in accordance with the whiles of standard deviation, all this in the midst of competition. it's a not so very unusual circumstance in nature that 'when it rains it pours' sort of thing that happens. variance happens, lol. 'dry spells' as well afflict life in the wild kingdom and casinodom.
so but, of course you have as an AP those times over the course of a hunt that you don't get enough or you get way more than expected.
in the wild kingdom maybe this gives the other predators, competitors, the opportunity to make there own scores, while the overly successful ones are gorging on the abundance of variance (a temporary loan form nature sort of thing). there tends to be just so many plays, so maybe variance helps to keep a number of competing predators better able to live together, both in the wild kingdom and casinodom.

Machinist · Jul 18, 2010

sagefr0g said:
so many things, so many things.
there are plenty, plenty of analogies for stuff in the natural world, the wild kingdom to the unnatural human contrived wild & crazy casinodoms.
of course the casindom is just a subset of the whole natural world so it's only natural (pun intended) that there be relational types of stuff going on.
but it's amusing to ponder such stuff.
so many things, so many things, where to start.
well, one point of interest and perhaps a contentious one would be the ratio of plays to AP predators and the needs and desires of those predators that can be found in the casinodoms on the planet in the midst of the rest of nature.
competition for AP's can be a bitch or at least seem like one. but it is how it works in the wild kingdom, packs and prides or lone wolves prowl the wilderness hunting down the key to survival for another day. and there is plenty of what seems useless stuff in the wild kingdom for those predators, but environmental biologists and the like would tell you different, that it's not so useless, that there are all sorts of symbiotic things going on that supports the whole system, sort of thing. so just maybe, even competition is when you get right down to it a good thing.
AP's live by the way of numbers in the casindom, live essentially on expected value in accordance with the whiles of standard deviation, all this in the midst of competition. it's a not so very unusual circumstance in nature that 'when it rains it pours' sort of thing that happens. variance happens, lol. 'dry spells' as well afflict life in the wild kingdom and casinodom.
so but, of course you have as an AP those times over the course of a hunt that you don't get enough or you get way more than expected.
in the wild kingdom maybe this gives the other predators, competitors, the opportunity to make there own scores, while the overly successful ones are gorging on the abundance of variance (a temporary loan form nature sort of thing). there tends to be just so many plays, so maybe variance helps to keep a number of competing predators better able to live together, both in the wild kingdom and casinodom.

I shot and ate a groundhog yesterday???? Poor guy...he was burrowing under my garage...plus his buddies ...I removed 2 of them in a live trap....but more kept coming to dig....So i had to end it all....he didnt feel a thing tho...lights out...
We roasted him in the oven for 4 hrs...with some taters and onions and carrots....mmmmmgooooood!!!
Maybe this has something to do with APs and predators and such...I dont know ...He was really tasty tho and no more digging my footing up...

Machinist

sagefr0g · Jul 18, 2010

Machinist said:
I shot and ate a groundhog yesterday???? Poor guy...he was burrowing under my garage...plus his buddies ...I removed 2 of them in a live trap....but more kept coming to dig....So i had to end it all....he didnt feel a thing tho...lights out...
We roasted him in the oven for 4 hrs...with some taters and onions and carrots....mmmmmgooooood!!!
Maybe this has something to do with APs and predators and such...I dont know ...He was really tasty tho and no more digging my footing up...

Machinist

lmao, well, i'm sorry you had to deal with that, all my fault i know. hey i'm just a rookie. you mean i coulda' had that critter for lunch.

well anyway, i hope it worked out for ya.:laugh::whip:
so many things, so many things..............

edit: errhh well, i'm monna leave this stuff go for now, lol, Y says it's time to head to casinodom and score her some lunch.:laugh::laugh:

Katweezel · Jul 18, 2010

Machinist said:
I shot and ate a groundhog yesterday???? Poor guy...he was burrowing under my garage...plus his buddies ...I removed 2 of them in a live trap....but more kept coming to dig....So i had to end it all....he didnt feel a thing tho...lights out...
We roasted him in the oven for 4 hrs...with some taters and onions and carrots....mmmmmgooooood!!!
Maybe this has something to do with APs and predators and such...I dont know ...He was really tasty tho and no more digging my footing up...

Machinist

Crikey! I hope that wasn't Punxsutawney Groundhog Phil you ate there, Mach. I'd be horrified if it was! Here are some pics. Does it look like the one you ate? Did it look like Phil?

Machinist · Jul 18, 2010

Spitting image

Yep that be the critter!!!!! Sons a bitches.....Little quick story.... This old farm house has footing built of lime stone stacked on each other.... Well finally and this was 4 years ago on dug under the footing and followed the footing along the length of the house....What the heck do you think happened!!!!!
I heard a noise one night ..it was close to winter time...i thought huh what was that ...I got up looked around and didnt think much of it...2 days later i noticed the house was a little colder than it should be... I went for a wallk and holy Crap!!!! the whole north basment wall had caved in....seriously just fell into the basement!!!! WTF over and over were my words to myself...
I have pics somewhere ... i will try to find them. Any ways the next year we started on a new block basement and as we were digging stuff away.. there was the friggin tunnel the woodchuck had dug about 12 ft long under the limestone...
So i have a distaste for wooochuck that dig....But i have aquired a taste for them baked...!!! No good can come from a woodchuck or a raccoon they are even worse...because they taste horrible... At least i can eat Phil....:laugh::laugh:

Machinist

sagefr0g · Jul 21, 2010

......fluctuation & advantage

so many things, so many things, lol.
the wild kingdom and the wild casinodom.
evolution is a good bit to do with advantage, no?
some small genetic random fluctuation that brings about a trait that just happens to be advantageous in the environment, and wallah a new species, successful beyond it's predecessor's wildest dreams, sort of thing.
as AP's in the casinodom we experience fluctuation, it's almost always part of the play. if we don't plan ahead for it ROR can spell the end of it all for us, either from a trip perspective or even for the long haul. the other side of the coin is we can find ourselves wallowing in loot well beyond our EV dreams possibly even pushing our ROR down or our EV up should the casinodom provide an environment susceptible to other advantageous venues previously too risky for ones bankroll, but now within reach, or perhaps the results of fluctuation might offer an opportunity for a advantageous change of game plan, sort of thing. the other side of the fluctuation coin might call for a pulling back on our game plan or a change to a less risky venue.
maybe as AP's we are forced to share territory with competing AP's in a relatively risky venue. so with fortunate fluctuation we may be able to retreat to another venue and allow our competitors to continue being exposed to the risk, perhaps sub coming to it. or perhaps we could take on more risk with a relatively same ROR and cut off the competition from even being able make plays because the ROR would be to high for them.
so many things, so many things.

Canceler · Jul 21, 2010

Katweezel said:
Crikey! I hope that wasn't Punxsutawney Groundhog Phil you ate there, Mach.

As a child growing up in Minnesota, I could never figure this out. If he saw his shadow, it was supposed to mean six more weeks of winter, which people seemed to think was bad. I always thought ONLY six more weeks of winter was a BARGAIN!

Machinist · Jul 21, 2010

i grew up there too..!!!

Canceler said:
As a child growing up in Minnesota, I could never figure this out. If he saw his shadow, it was supposed to mean six more weeks of winter, which people seemed to think was bad. I always thought ONLY six more weeks of winter was a BARGAIN!

Yea!!!!! more snowmobiling is what i always thought too!!!

Machinist

aslan · Jul 22, 2010

Machinist said:
I shot and ate a groundhog yesterday???? Poor guy...he was burrowing under my garage...plus his buddies ...I removed 2 of them in a live trap....but more kept coming to dig....So i had to end it all....he didnt feel a thing tho...lights out...
We roasted him in the oven for 4 hrs...with some taters and onions and carrots....mmmmmgooooood!!!
Maybe this has something to do with APs and predators and such...I dont know ...He was really tasty tho and no more digging my footing up...

Machinist

Hey, mach...I've had chipmunks all around my house for 25 years. They are so cute I could never bring myself to kill them. But as time goes on, more and more holes appear around my house and porch and even twenty feet out to the street. Can these critters do much harm in undermining your house and porch foundation? I know they are not near the size of a groundhog, but enough of them and enough tunnels has me a little worried. Oh, well, I probably won't do anything anyway. I mean, the wife has names for some of them. lol What to do!

aslan · Jul 22, 2010

sagefr0g said:
so many things, so many things.
.............so maybe variance helps to keep a number of competing predators better able to live together, both in the wild kingdom and casinodom.

One thing different from the animal kingdom is the fact that APs are not forced to make their living in the "dog eat dog" [I hate that idiom] world of casinodom. There are other venues, too numerous to mention, outside of casinodom, and many of them are based on doing something constructive and receiving a reward for so doing. Of course, there are many businesses outside of casinodom that are just as bad, too.:laugh: But at least we have the opportunity to escape the world of animal instinct [I should say, the bad side of animal instinct] by choosing a living from among those pursuits that help others by providing goods and services that are in the public interest for a reasonable profit. I am always encouraged when I run into a company that is based on good old-fashioned values, and which owes its success to people who respond to those values. Maybe I'm just a blind romantic wearing rose-colored glasses, but I like to think that there's more than a struggle for survival that makes the world go round. Love, love, loveView attachment 6920...all you need is love, love, love...View attachment 6921 Beatle Aslan

:laugh::whip:

sagefr0g · Jul 22, 2010

aslan said:
One thing different from the animal kingdom is the fact that APs are not forced to make their living in the "dog eat dog" [I hate that idiom] world of casinodom. There are other venues, too numerous to mention, outside of casinodom, and many of them are based on doing something constructive and receiving a reward for so doing. Of course, there are many businesses outside of casinodom that are just as bad, too.:laugh: But at least we have the opportunity to escape the world of animal instinct [I should say, the bad side of animal instinct] by choosing a living from among those pursuits that help others by providing goods and services that are in the public interest for a reasonable profit. I am always encouraged when I run into a company that is based on good old-fashioned values, and which owes its success to people who respond to those values. Maybe I'm just a blind romantic wearing rose-colored glasses, but I like to think that there's more than a struggle for survival that makes the world go round. Love, love, loveView attachment 6920...all you need is love, love, love...View attachment 6921 Beatle Aslan :laugh::whip:

yup, all kinds of ways, i'm done with that, aren't you? retired, ya know and loving it, lol. what a blessing! all that stooping with ones face in the dust of the earth sort of thing mankind is apparently bound to perform, is great as you say in that it is productive for mankind, thing is there is something of a nature of a curse about it that probably can't be escaped, imho. again what a blessing to be relatively free of that, errhh i think you know what i mean. if not, do you want to do it all over again? lol...
it's honorable though, and profitable, i'm not knocking work, it's a blessing in it's own right, doubtless work is what makes mankind so successful, even though there may be strings attached. but just maybe love is the key that can make work less of a burdensome experience.
but yeah, really, in a sense transcending that whole struggle for survival thing is one of the stellar things about AP stuff if you are already relatively independent of the struggle. this is where i believe my good friend CP is so very correct with his ideas of Strength and Honor, with respect to AP stuff and in agreement with the idea that the work a day world is a good route to take, sort of thing.
and really AP stuff is work, lol, it won't succeed with out work. again back to the analogy of the wild kingdom and what seems to be worthless stuff to the creatures in it, well really that stuff isn't with out value. long way of saying, everything God does or did has value. and even for those who don't get the concept of God, the value is hard to deny, lol.
so but yeah, even in this crazy casinodom AP stuff, i'll go out on a limb and claim love is key. like Lombardi, said, "winning isn't everything, it's the only thing", well how about, love isn't everything it's the only thing.
so yeah, keep love in this AP thing and you have value upon value.
it's the old thing of what are you gonna do with all this value that you can accumulate? love is the key, no?

aslan · Jul 22, 2010

sagefr0g said:
yup, all kinds of ways, i'm done with that, aren't you? retired, ya know and loving it, lol. what a blessing! all that stooping with ones face in the dust of the earth sort of thing mankind is apparently bound to perform, is great as you say in that it is productive for mankind, thing is there is something of a nature of a curse about it that probably can't be escaped, imho. again what a blessing to be relatively free of that, errhh i think you know what i mean. if not, do you want to do it all over again? lol...
it's honorable though, and profitable, i'm not knocking work, it's a blessing in it's own right, doubtless work is what makes mankind so successful, even though there may be strings attached. but just maybe love is the key that can make work less of a burdensome experience.
but yeah, really, in a sense transcending that whole struggle for survival thing is one of the stellar things about AP stuff if you are already relatively independent of the struggle. this is where i believe my good friend CP is so very correct with his ideas of Strength and Honor, with respect to AP stuff and in agreement with the idea that the work a day world is a good route to take, sort of thing.
and really AP stuff is work, lol, it won't succeed with out work. again back to the analogy of the wild kingdom and what seems to be worthless stuff to the creatures in it, well really that stuff isn't with out value. long way of saying, everything God does or did has value. and even for those who don't get the concept of God, the value is hard to deny, lol.
so but yeah, even in this crazy casinodom AP stuff, i'll go out on a limb and claim love is key. like Lombardi, said, "winning isn't everything, it's the only thing", well how about, love isn't everything it's the only thing.
so yeah, keep love in this AP thing and you have value upon value.
it's the old thing of what are you gonna do with all this value that you can accumulate? love is the key, no?

I take no exception with what you say. But I would add that love is one of those values, maybe the only one, that you cannot accumulate except by giving it away. That kind of turns the whole world upside down on its head, doesn't it? :laugh: :laugh: Love to read you posts; they communicate.

sagefr0g · Jul 22, 2010

aslan said:
I take no exception with what you say. But I would add that love is one of those values, maybe the only one, that you cannot accumulate except by giving it away. That kind of turns the whole world upside down on its head, doesn't it? :laugh: :laugh: Love to read you posts; they communicate.

good point, gonna have to ponder that.
so, k, i'm off on another wild crazy casinodom day trip, gonna spread some love around.
by the way i never really learned to communicate till i was in the Army. worked with a guy who managed to catch me in every lie i told, lol.
thing i finally figured out was dude was actually listening.

:whip:
same principle seems to work with AP stuff, ...... actually know something and there just might be an advantage.

blackchipjim · Jul 22, 2010

The hunter and the hunted

I feel for you Machinist I'm at odds with nature myself. I kill everything that moves around my anymore. Groundhogs, chipmunks and red squirres are dead meat. They know me and I know them they see any movement from the house or noises and they run for cover. Damage to the property is unexplainable to the city dwellers.
The funny thing is this morning there was a young whistle pig about ten feet from the house so I go get my rifle to shoot the varmint. I tell the wife to cover her ears and before I can get a shot off a family of hawks are attacking the damn thing. I guess I was interupting thier breakfast hunt. I could stay around to see if they picked him off or not because I had to get to work.
So goes the animal kingdom and pecking order which is what we are subject to in our quest for riches. We sometimes have other hunters in the stores hunting down the profits that we so richly deserve. We do have to learn to step aside from time to time in order not to infringe on others hunting grounds. Hunt and hunt alike for we are all hunted and don't want to turn into the hunted instead of the hunter.

Machinist · Jul 22, 2010

chipmunks

Chipmunks are just messy ...no problem with the holes Aslan...I kinda enjoy them...Now red squirrels ........WELL!!! them little bstrds!!! they can get into all kinds of trouble if they make your house their home!!!....
We dont have problems with the small rodents because of the wifes 17 cats... Black chippin its nice to know i'm not alone ..... LOL they do scatter when they hear or see me and or the guns. lol..... They isn't dumb:laugh:

Machinist

aslan · Jul 23, 2010

Machinist said:
Chipmunks are just messy ...no problem with the holes Aslan...I kinda enjoy them...Now red squirrels ........WELL!!! them little bstrds!!! they can get into all kinds of trouble if they make your house their home!!!....
We dont have problems with the small rodents because of the wifes 17 cats... Black chippin its nice to know i'm not alone ..... LOL they do scatter when they hear or see me and or the guns. lol..... They isn't dumb:laugh:

Machinist

Well, for a while I was plagued with snakes, who heard about the flourishing chipmunk population at our house. And squirrels, have we got squirrels. They are especially hard to get rid of because the wife feeds them daily. lol No red ones though. Once in a while a black one. Seen albinos, too, but not at our house. Had deer under our apple tree until I put up a fence. Wife loved them, too, and can't say that I don't like deer either. Once we had a large rat. Stop feeding the squirrels, I yelled. But after a while she went back to feeding the squirrels--no rats--fingers crossed. And yesterday, I was cleaning out the garage--thought I found a mouse nest. Pulled it off the shelf and three birds scampered out and headed for nearby trees and brush for cover. Hope their momma found them. Last year had to seal off the attic when we found dropping up there--squirrels? Don't know, but we sealed it off real good to the extent practical. And of all things, I got a frog and family living under the concrete driveway through a crack where it seams together. Sometimes when we come home at night one of them, momma frog, or baby frog, is sitting on the driveway or porch under a light, I guess because it attracts bugs. In deference to Sage, I'm always careful where I step when I come home at night.

sagefr0g · Jul 23, 2010

territory & AP's

blackchipjim said:
....
So goes the animal kingdom and pecking order which is what we are subject to in our quest for riches. We sometimes have other hunters in the stores hunting down the profits that we so richly deserve. We do have to learn to step aside from time to time in order not to infringe on others hunting grounds. Hunt and hunt alike for we are all hunted and don't want to turn into the hunted instead of the hunter.

yup, just like fishing etiquette, you just don't plop right down by some guy who has found a good spot and expect to be welcome.
just like all sorts of animals have their own territories and are more than willing to fight for it.
there doesn't seem to be an easy answer for the competition thing.
part of the situation is the relative rarity of plays and the problem of those rare plays being diluted by competitors.
this is where having a diverse number of venues can help.
sometimes in a crowded territory it's possible to get in a play while competitors are busy dealing with their own play.
also as discussed before an understanding of standard deviation and the expected number of plays in a crowded field can provide a temporary relief from competition, say if you get lucky and make a score well above EV, sort of thing.
other ways, maybe swamp them with a large team, then hope that team doesn't turn into your competition later on down the line, lol.
or maybe throw more fire power than they can muster.
still it remains wise to have some degree of etiquette and civility as aslan alluded.
so many things.

Machinist · Jul 24, 2010

Evolution

Ahhhh yes the evolution of the SageFrog!!!!! It truely is a wild world out there isn't it Sage??? You are learning ...and learning fast ....
And to think a short 10 months ago you felt sorry for a certain poor shmuck!!!! Now you are out there battling the chumps..degenerates and gambleholics...
Gert mean buddy,,, get mean!!!!! Remember its " only business" nothing personal...:laugh::laugh:
Relaxing on the farm in Illinois.......aaahhhh the good life ... and then the drive to ga. to see the wifey.... the best life!!!!!
Gettem froggy!!!!! Wear them down....its your turf...starve them out!!!!
Or if all else fails....... mmmm go see LG!!!!! :whip:

Machinist

sagefr0g · Jul 24, 2010

Machinist said:
Ahhhh yes the evolution of the SageFrog!!!!! It truely is a wild world out there isn't it Sage??? You are learning ...and learning fast ....
And to think a short 10 months ago you felt sorry for a certain poor shmuck!!!! Now you are out there battling the chumps..degenerates and gambleholics...
Gert mean buddy,,, get mean!!!!! Remember its " only business" nothing personal...:laugh::laugh:
Relaxing on the farm in Illinois.......aaahhhh the good life ... and then the drive to ga. to see the wifey.... the best life!!!!!
Gettem froggy!!!!! Wear them down....its your turf...starve them out!!!!
Or if all else fails....... mmmm go see LG!!!!! :whip:

Machinist

lmao, yeah i'm surfin one hell of a learning curve, fough sho.
and yeah 10 months ago, who the hell'd ever of thought this stuff even existed, but me being the nice guy i am (to know me is to love me), managed to find out. so aslan is correct, being a nice guy does pay dividends.

and shmucky seeming stuff (nuthin personal but hell it just didn't seem real), well isn't always what it seems, lol.
edit: who the hell would'a thought my bankroll would'a been three times as large in ten months.
but yeah just business and yup it's my turf, so at the least there is gonna be some slim pickens round these parts causa me.
and speakin of chipmunks, ground hogs and the like, just possibly i might have me a couple of moles to help things get straightened out round these parts.
and don't worry LG, i a'int heading your way, lol, but you do hail from my ole stomping grounds ya know.:laugh:

aslan · Jul 24, 2010

sagefr0g said:
lmao, yeah i'm surfin one hell of a learning curve, fough sho.
and yeah 10 months ago, who the hell'd ever of thought this stuff even existed, but me being the nice guy i am (to know me is to love me), managed to find out. so aslan is correct, being a nice guy does pay dividends. and shmucky seeming stuff (nuthin personal but hell it just didn't seem real), well isn't always what it seems, lol.
edit: who the hell would'a thought my bankroll would'a been three times as large in ten months.
but yeah just business and yup it's my turf, so at the least there is gonna be some slim pickens round these parts causa me.
and speakin of chipmunks, ground hogs and the like, just possibly i might have me a couple of moles to help things get straightened out round these parts.
and don't worry LG, i a'int heading your way, lol, but you do hail from my ole stomping grounds ya know.:laugh:

I'm not sure what you're talking about, but I do know that Mach somehow tickled your funny bone and it's good to see you dancing around on your lily pad.

AP predators & the wild casino kingdom

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