Tales of a new counter

M

MrSmith

Active Member
Hello everyone. I just wanted to introduce myself, share my story over the last 60 days and possibly get some feedback and advice.

It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn. I practiced for several hours every day and after a week I was fairly proficient. I could count a full deck in 35 to 40 seconds. I also have the iPhone app "21 Pro" which I feel is an amazing training aid when first learning to count. It keeps the count for you so you get instant feedback when you make an error. I continued practicing counting down a full deck and playing 21 Pro several hours a day for 2 weeks before I decided to purchase the book Color of Blackjack. After reading the book I decided this was the strategy for me. After dissecting the book piece by piece and practicing the unbalanced count for 2 weeks I was feeling pretty confident in my ability. At this point I'm counting a full deck in 25 to 27 seconds with zero mistakes, I'm playing 21 Pro with a 6 deck shoe and rarely making any counting or betting errors, and I've memorized basic strategy. I'm as ready as I can be with zero real world experience so I head out.

The following are the table rules where I play along with dates, amount won/lost, and time played at casinos.

I've calculated the house edge is -.56% based on the following rules.

baseline -.02% (SD,DD any first 2 cards,1 card split Aces,dealer stands on S17,no surrender)
6 decks -.53%
Dealer hits on S17 -.20%
Resplit Aces +.06%
Double after split +.13%

Play History:
8/25 Casino #1 +$580 1 hour

8/26 Casino #2 +$255 1 hour
8/26 Casino #1 -$45 half hour

8/27 Casino #3 -$240 2 hours
8/27 Casino #2 +$200 2 hours

8/28 Casino #1 -$125 1.5 hours
8/28 Casino #2 +$50 2 hours
8/28 Casino #4 -$230 3 hours
8/28 Casino #3 +$200 2 hours

8/29 Casino #1 +$70 2 hours

8/31 Casino #1 -$700 half hour

9/4 Casino #1 +$310 1 hour
9/4 Casino #2 -$625 2 hours
9/4 Casino #4 -$235 2.5 hours
9/4 Casino #3 -$400 1.5 hours

9/5 Casino #5 +$100 half hour
9/5 Casino #2 -$150 2 hours
9/5 Casino #1 -$1830 4 hours

9/7 Casino #2 -$450 2 hours

Grand total -$3265

My assessment so far. Obviously I loved it when I first started. I was doing well right out the gate then went back and forth as I expected. I also expected some losses but 9/4 and especially 9/5 were very difficult. 9/7 didn't help either. :) I ain't gonna lie. That is a confidence shaker. I'm following the Color of Blackjack book perfectly according to my playing partner who has read the book as well. The big loss of $1830 on 9/5 was especially rough. I lost about 80% of my big bets when the count was in the "hot" according to the book. I sat at the same table all 4 hours and the count repeatedly, shoe after shoe, hit 29 to 42. I believed in the math and just kept pulling money out of my pocket, firing away, and watching it disappear. I've concluded that even though I lost $1830 I acted correctly because the goal of counting is to find the "hot" shoe. If it kept finding me why would I leave? Obviously, hindsight tells me I should have left. :) As a side note, the majority of the $1830 loss were in the last 2 hours when I was playing heads up with the dealer. I think 1 mistake I made was not spreading to 2 hands in those last 2 hours when the count was great. Thoughts?

I have several questions for the group. They are as follows:

1) When do you decide to leave a casino? I've been trying to just hit and run in under 2 hours. I stayed 4 hours on 9/5 because the counts were so good and I was sure I would eventually get some money back. Was I wrong to stay and keep firing when the counts were so high?

2) My bankroll "was" $5000 but since it's been decimated should I drop my big bet in half or more? "Kelly" says I should.

3) Any suggestions to help get through this horrible stretch?

4) Should I move the "warm" & "hot" lines to help cover the house edge?

5) Should I spread to 2 hands when playing solo and the count reaches the "hot" zone?

6) I'm completely open to feedback both positive and negative. Actually, I would appreciate negative feedback more so that I can improve. Let me have it. :) All questions welcomed.

Thank you and I look forward to posting here as much as possible.
 
J

johndoe

Well-Known Member
Sorry to hear of the losses. I didn't see what your bet spread was, or what the penetration was. That's pretty important info.

Also, this is a pretty poor game unless the penetration is unusually good.

MrSmith said:
1) When do you decide to leave a casino? I've been trying to just hit and run in under 2 hours. I stayed 4 hours on 9/5 because the counts were so good and I was sure I would eventually get some money back. Was I wrong to stay and keep firing when the counts were so high?
Click to expand...
Not at all, unless you're experiencing heat. High counts are great!

2) My bankroll "was" $5000 but since it's been decimated should I drop my big bet in half or more? "Kelly" says I should.
3) Any suggestions to help get through this horrible stretch?
Click to expand...
Absolutely drop your bets, if you must play. It does seem like you were overbetting, and you almost certainly are now. You probably need to hold off and do something else to build your bankroll.


4) Should I move the "warm" & "hot" lines to help cover the house edge?
Click to expand...
I don't know what "warm" and "hot" are. Did you calculate an optimal bet spread before heading out?

5) Should I spread to 2 hands when playing solo and the count reaches the "hot" zone?
Click to expand...
No, this isn't necessary when playing alone.

6) I'm completely open to feedback both positive and negative. Actually, I would appreciate negative feedback more so that I can improve. Let me have it. :) All questions welcomed.
Click to expand...
Frankly I think you need to find a much better game, or at least analyze this one in much more detail prior to betting any more money. Based on what I saw, you need to do a lot more reading before attempting this again. I'm not sure you knew what you were getting into.

tl;dr advice: Read the stickies here on this website, read up some good recommended books, practice some more, build a bankroll, analyze the games properly, and (maybe) try again.

Card counting itself is easy, but making money with it is hard.
 
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B

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
MrSmith said:
Hello everyone. I just wanted to introduce myself, share my story over the last 60 days and possibly get some feedback and advice.

It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn. I practiced for several hours every day and after a week I was fairly proficient. I could count a full deck in 35 to 40 seconds. I also have the iPhone app "21 Pro" which I feel is an amazing training aid when first learning to count. It keeps the count for you so you get instant feedback when you make an error. I continued practicing counting down a full deck and playing 21 Pro several hours a day for 2 weeks before I decided to purchase the book Color of Blackjack. After reading the book I decided this was the strategy for me. After dissecting the book piece by piece and practicing the unbalanced count for 2 weeks I was feeling pretty confident in my ability. At this point I'm counting a full deck in 25 to 27 seconds with zero mistakes, I'm playing 21 Pro with a 6 deck shoe and rarely making any counting or betting errors, and I've memorized basic strategy. I'm as ready as I can be with zero real world experience so I head out.

The following are the table rules where I play along with dates, amount won/lost, and time played at casinos.

I've calculated the house edge is -.56% based on the following rules.

baseline -.02% (SD,DD any first 2 cards,1 card split Aces,dealer stands on S17,no surrender)
6 decks -.53%
Dealer hits on S17 -.20%
Resplit Aces +.06%
Double after split +.13%

Play History:
8/25 Casino #1 +$580 1 hour

8/26 Casino #2 +$255 1 hour
8/26 Casino #1 -$45 half hour

8/27 Casino #3 -$240 2 hours
8/27 Casino #2 +$200 2 hours

8/28 Casino #1 -$125 1.5 hours
8/28 Casino #2 +$50 2 hours
8/28 Casino #4 -$230 3 hours
8/28 Casino #3 +$200 2 hours

8/29 Casino #1 +$70 2 hours

8/31 Casino #1 -$700 half hour

9/4 Casino #1 +$310 1 hour
9/4 Casino #2 -$625 2 hours
9/4 Casino #4 -$235 2.5 hours
9/4 Casino #3 -$400 1.5 hours

9/5 Casino #5 +$100 half hour
9/5 Casino #2 -$150 2 hours
9/5 Casino #1 -$1830 4 hours

9/7 Casino #2 -$450 2 hours

Grand total -$3265

My assessment so far. Obviously I loved it when I first started. I was doing well right out the gate then went back and forth as I expected. I also expected some losses but 9/4 and especially 9/5 were very difficult. 9/7 didn't help either. :) I ain't gonna lie. That is a confidence shaker. I'm following the Color of Blackjack book perfectly according to my playing partner who has read the book as well. The big loss of $1830 on 9/5 was especially rough. I lost about 80% of my big bets when the count was in the "hot" according to the book. I sat at the same table all 4 hours and the count repeatedly, shoe after shoe, hit 29 to 42. I believed in the math and just kept pulling money out of my pocket, firing away, and watching it disappear. I've concluded that even though I lost $1830 I acted correctly because the goal of counting is to find the "hot" shoe. If it kept finding me why would I leave? Obviously, hindsight tells me I should have left. :) As a side note, the majority of the $1830 loss were in the last 2 hours when I was playing heads up with the dealer. I think 1 mistake I made was not spreading to 2 hands in those last 2 hours when the count was great. Thoughts?

I have several questions for the group. They are as follows:

1) When do you decide to leave a casino? I've been trying to just hit and run in under 2 hours. I stayed 4 hours on 9/5 because the counts were so good and I was sure I would eventually get some money back. Was I wrong to stay and keep firing when the counts were so high?

2) My bankroll "was" $5000 but since it's been decimated should I drop my big bet in half or more? "Kelly" says I should.

3) Any suggestions to help get through this horrible stretch?

4) Should I move the "warm" & "hot" lines to help cover the house edge?

5) Should I spread to 2 hands when playing solo and the count reaches the "hot" zone?

6) I'm completely open to feedback both positive and negative. Actually, I would appreciate negative feedback more so that I can improve. Let me have it. :) All questions welcomed.

Thank you and I look forward to posting here as much as possible.
Click to expand...
From your loss pattern and my experience to diagnosis my newbie counter friends, I think you made mistakes on playing stiff hands when true count is high. You probably want to go back to play with computer and pay attention when true count is high and you got 14, 15, 16 against dealers' 8, 9, 10 and Ace. If you can't memorize all the indexes, the first step is to hit all 13 and 14 stiff hands and concentrate on playing 15 and 16 stiff hands 100% right.
 
M

MrSmith

Active Member
The penetration is about 83% as the dealers cut to 1 deck remaining.

The "warm" and "hot" lines I was referring to are described in the link below. The warm and hot lines are a way to make True Count calculations without having to do the formula in your head before each hand. I use the chart on the lower left of the page. The 6 deck shoe bet ramp chart is linked directly as well.

(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/index.html) (You can also click and read Chapter 4 of the book from here which explains bankroll requirements and bet ramps)
(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/pdfs/deck-6-bet-ramp.pdf)

I may have been overbetting based on my bankroll according to "Kelly". Since I started with a $5000 bankroll my max bet should have been $50 for a 1-5 spread. My max bet was $75 for a 1-7.5 spread but I never put my max bet out until I have calculated at least a 2% player advantage.

Even so, I used the formula linked below to calculate my advantage.

http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/cardcounting.html#book (Archive copy)

TC = [RC-(4 * Decks Played)]/Decks Unplayed
TC = .5% advantage (TC of 13 is a 6.5% player advantage)
House Edge = -.56%

By my calculations a +42 RC would equal a 5.94% player advantage after house edge.

Furthermore, according to the chart the "warm" line is where the player has .50% advantage before calculating house edge. Therefore, I adjusted the lines based on the game I play. The chart has the warm line at +9 for 1 deck palyed, +12 for 2 decks played, etc. I moved to +10 & +13 and so on. Therefore, when I estimate that 3.5 decks have been played I don't raise my bet 1 unit until my RC reaches 18.

I've charted over 20 different points on the chart and using the formula it appears to be accurate.

Any thoughts are very appreciated. Thanks!
 
S

sabre

Well-Known Member
I'd be somewhat concerned that you saw so many high count hands. Even with 83% pen, only about 1.5% of the hands you see should be at TC +8 or higher (HiLo). It's not unusual to have several shoes in a row with no significantly positive counts.

I think it's very likely that you made some counting mistakes.
 
M

MrSmith

Active Member
BJgenius007 said:
From your loss pattern and my experience to diagnosis my newbie counter friends, I think you made mistakes on playing stiff hands when true count is high. You probably want to go back to play with computer and pay attention when true count is high and you got 14, 15, 16 against dealers' 8, 9, 10 and Ace. If you can't memorize all the indexes, the first step is to hit all 13 and 14 stiff hands and concentrate on playing 15 and 16 stiff hands 100% right.
Click to expand...
I've been playing basic strategy perfectly and using index plays. Here is a link to the index plays I use. I only used the first 5 as I've read they cover 95% of all possible card counting gain. I will now be memorizing the remaining index plays. :) Shouldn't be hard to remember.

(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/pdfs/index-plays.pdf)
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
MrSmith said:
. I lost about 80% of my big bets when the count was in the "hot" according to the book. I sat at the same table all 4 hours and the count repeatedly, shoe after shoe, hit 29 to 42.
Click to expand...
Something doesn't sound right here. It sounds like you're either not counting correctly or the shoe in question was missing a significant number of 10's and Aces. I've only seen a running count get above 29 twice in the last year, and both times it was 32. It certainly shouldn't remain that high shoe after shoe. Are they using an AMS or is it hand shuffled? If it's hand shuffled you should be able to cut the unused cards that are rich in high cards to the front of the shoe or to the back of the playable shoe if you prefer, but make sure you get them into play! High counts are no good if the high cards remain burried. The count has to come back down to be of any help.
 
Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Hmm , i read that the life time ROR for your BR don;t change ? (assuming the money is set).

I'll had a similar experience as you, lost £1300 in the space of 4 hours. (Won £300 the first day, next day lost £1300 :()

Ming
 
M

MrSmith

Active Member
sabre said:
I'd be somewhat concerned that you saw so many high count hands. Even with 83% pen, only about 1.5% of the hands you see should be at TC +8 or higher (HiLo). It's not unusual to have several shoes in a row with no significantly positive counts.

I think it's very likely that you made some counting mistakes.
Click to expand...

That was my initial thought as well but I had my playing partner watching the whole time and he has been counting for years. Even though he uses a balanced count he wasn't playing at the time and was using my KO count to see if I was making counting mistakes. He said my counts were right and that he's never seen a run this bad before. I've chalked it up to variance but my confidence is a little shaken so I'm investigating the matter further. I didn't play for money until I thought my counting skills were more than sufficient with him testing me with mock shoes for several days.

I totally agree that I was seeing an abnormal amount of high count hands but I'm also 99.99% sure my count wasn't off by more than 1. I "wong out" of shoes all the time because of low counts & negative counts. I don't just sit there wasting money and hope it's going to get better. I've worked really hard to try and maximize my playing time into high count hands. Here is the chart I use for "wonging out".

(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/index.html) (Bottom of page)
 
M

MrSmith

Active Member
21gunsalute said:
Something doesn't sound right here. It sounds like you're either not counting correctly or the shoe in question was missing a significant number of 10's and Aces. I've only seen a running count get above 29 twice in the last year, and both times it was 32. It certainly shouldn't remain that high shoe after shoe. Are they using an AMS or is it hand shuffled? If it's hand shuffled you should be able to cut the unused cards that are rich in high cards to the front of the shoe or to the back of the playable shoe if you prefer, but make sure you get them into play! High counts are no good if the high cards remain burried. The count has to come back down to be of any help.
Click to expand...
It's an automatic shuffler but not a continuous shuffler. I know to avoid the continuous shufflers. :)
 
P

paddywhack

Well-Known Member
Good advice so far

I'm not familiar with that app but I can't stress enough that proper preparation with a simulated program is a major help. Both with counting, index plays, and betting.

As long as the game is fair and you were as accurate as you state, then you have obviously suffered from a case of negative variance. Which, as we all know, happens way too often.

Time to regroup, make sure you're doing it all right, size your bet spread correctly and try again.

BTW: The major index numbers are what you need. Memorizing an huge list that adds very little to your game only adds more complexity to the task. That is definitely not something you need right now being new to the game and having had a large loss. Concentrate on the important stuff.

Good luck,

paddy
 
B

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
you have bigger problem than you think you have

MrSmith said:
I've been playing basic strategy perfectly and using index plays. Here is a link to the index plays I use. I only used the first 5 as I've read they cover 95% of all possible card counting gain. I will now be memorizing the remaining index plays. :) Shouldn't be hard to remember.

(Dead link: http://www.thecolorofblackjack.com/charts/pdfs/index-plays.pdf)
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, that is not index play for Hi-Lo. This is some indexes for Hi Lo:
u\dealer 7 8 9 10 A
16 ........ 9 7 5 0 8
15 ...... 10 10 8 4 9

For example, assuming you have 16 and dealer shown A, if true count is 8 or higher, you stand. If true count is 7 or lower, you hit.

Another example, assuming you have 16 and dealer shown 10, if true count is 0 or higher, you stand. If true count is -1 or lower, you hit.

For counters, you make money when true count is very high and you spread 20 to 1 or even 100 to 1, these stiff hands need to be played correctly because it can be either hit or stand depending how high the true count is. And this is just the first step. You need to adjust the indexes based on ace side count.
 
M

MrSmith

Active Member
BJgenius007 said:
Unfortunately, that is not index play for Hi-Lo. This is some indexes for Hi Lo:
u\dealer 7 8 9 10 A
16 ........ 9 7 5 0 8
15 ...... 10 10 8 4 9

For example, assuming you have 16 and dealer shown A, if true count is 8 or higher, you stand. If true count is 7 or lower, you hit.

Another example, assuming you have 16 and dealer shown 10, if true count is 0 or higher, you stand. If true count is -1 or lower, you hit.

For counters, you make money when true count is very high and you spread 20 to 1 or even 100 to 1, these stiff hands need to be played correctly because it can be either hit or stand depending how high the true count is. And this is just the first step. You need to adjust the indexes based on ace side count.
Click to expand...

I'm not using Hi-Lo. I'm using KO. I count 7 as +1. I'm not sure what you're saying.
 
B

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
MrSmith said:
I'm not using Hi-Lo. I'm using KO. I count 7 as +1. I'm not sure what you're saying.
Click to expand...
My bad. Your friend uses Hi Lo. You use KO. I see that after reading all posts in the thread.

Now the question is if using KO counting is adequate to win. Basically KO users only require to memorize three BS charts for cold, warm and hot settings. For other balanced counting systems, you need to memorize all the indexes.
 
S

sabre

Well-Known Member
BJgenius007 said:
Now the question is if using KO counting is adequate to win.
Click to expand...
KO is more than adequate to win as is using rounded indexes to simplify memorization.
 
Zero

Zero

Well-Known Member
MrSmith said:
Hello everyone. I just wanted to introduce myself, share my story over the last 60 days and possibly get some feedback and advice.
Click to expand...
Hi MrSmith, welcome to the forums. Not sure if this is the kind of feedback you're looking for but if you played 100 hands/hr during those 33 hours, you're about 1.7 standard deviations away from expected (or 4.25%). If you played less, say 60 hands/hr, you're quite a bit further out at 2.3 standard deviations (or 1%). If it's closer to the later I believe the chances are greater that there's a problem with your game than you're experiencing that level of variance (which I interpret as anything > 2).

Note: I had to make a few assumptions about your ramp of 1-7.5 as it would map to the 1-10 spread for 6D on COB, to come up with a win rate of $.08/hand and a Std Dev of $30.337/hand.

BJgenius007 said:
Now the question is if using KO counting is adequate to win.
Click to expand...
Color of Blackjack was given a rave review by Ken himself.

0
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
MrSmith said:
I'm not using Hi-Lo. I'm using KO. I count 7 as +1. I'm not sure what you're saying.
Click to expand...
MrSmith said:
It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn.
Click to expand...
?
 
Zero

Zero

Well-Known Member
21gunsalute said:
?
Click to expand...
Just read a little further down. He changed his mind.

MrSmith said:
It all started because a friend has been counting for years and has won a substantial amount. He uses the Hi-Lo count so that's what I decided to learn.
...
I continued practicing counting down a full deck and playing 21 Pro several hours a day for 2 weeks before I decided to purchase the book Color of Blackjack. After reading the book I decided this was the strategy for me.
Click to expand...
0
 
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