100 max bets?

I am playing a one year session with a 1,000 unit bank. I want to spread 1 to 20 but to have 100 max bets I can only spread 1 - 10 ?

Has anyone broke down ROR on a 6D, H17, 80 pen game in terms of 100 max bets, 90 max bets, etc.

I don't care if it takes a lifetime I am coming back slow and methodical to win.

Ran a 1 billion round sim on cvcx..

and it's not looking good. using HL count with sweet 16 and fab 4, 6 deck 80% pen with DAS, No RSA, no surrender - with a 1000 unit bank, the win rate and RoR is as follows:

1-10: WR: 1.595/hour RoR: 17.6%
1-11: WR: 1.774/hour RoR: 17.6%
1-12: WR: 1.952/hour RoR: 17.9%
1-13: WR: 2.13/hour RoR: 18.4%
1-14: WR: 2.309/hour RoR: 19%
1-15: WR: 2.58/hour RoR: 20.09%
1-20: WR: 3.29/hour RoR: 22.9%

The optimal betting ramp its giving me for 1-10 spread is TC 2: 4 units, tc 3: 9 units, tc 4: 10 units

The score is very weak on this game even with 1-20 spread, score = 24.25

If you backcount however and only play at TC 1 or higher, then you can use your 1-20 unit spread for 2.526 units/hr and 3.5% RoR. You may want to consider this or other options.

From first glance, I think your ROR numbers need to move over a decimal point.
-BW

rules are weak

cvcx is giving a score of ~13 on the 1-10 spread, the rules are simply too crappy to overcome with such a limited spread/bankroll (the starting ev is -.6 at tc 0).

Score seems too low for an 80% pen 6D game. You are assuming DAS in your sim, right?

Brock Windsor said:

From first glance, I think your ROR numbers need to move over a decimal point.
-BW

Click to expand...

Actually I double checked his sim with my own program, and his RoR numbers are in the right order of magnitude. I got a 20% RoR with a 1-20 spread 6D H17 DAS DA2 RSA 80% w/ no indices. This is a very crappy game... Wonging, the option of LS, spreading to multiple hands at high counts or improved pen would make it playable.

One thing though, is the "optimal spread" calculated by cvcx seems a little odd, as there is a very narrow window for which the bets change at all. The spread I used was as follows...
1<TC<2 : 3 units
2<TC<3 : 6 units
3<TC<4 : 12 units
4<TC<5 : 16 units
TC>= 5 : 20 units
I just kinda plugged these in as they are similar to the spread I use. I think the advantage of betting when 1<TC<2 makes a difference as a significant chunk of time you'll be playing in this window. If the TC is exactly 1 then sure, the bet is played at an incredibly small disadvantage, but it is worth it to play these bets to capture the opportunities when the TC approaches (but isn't quite) 2.

For 100 max bank

Ror =0.75-1.25ish %

My error. My reaction was it shouldn't be worse than full kelly betting, not realizing of course all those negative counts when you're betting 0.1% of your BR instead of 0.
-BW

Wow, thanks for all the great responses, I appreciate everyone giving thought to my query.

I will heed your advice this time and bet more responsibly.

The devil made me do it.

1. Spread to 2 hands at higher counts. This improves winrate and ROR
2. Wong out. Again, improves winrate and ROR.

If you just do these two things, your risk of ruin should be acceptable, and I bet your SCORE would crack 40.

KingHenry's numbers look right to me. It's obviously better to accept the marginally higher ROR and spread 1-20 (the EV is way higher). In any case, the goal is not to stay in the game for as long as possible, the goal is to make serious money. Losing 5k never hurt anyone. Just save up and try it again if you go busto.

NightStalker said:

Ror =0.75-1.25ish %

Click to expand...

I dont need nearly that low a Ror. I think 5% would be very acceptable. I suppose it depends on ramp too. I forgot it is a DAS game also.

Half but Better

1.83% ror half kelly
resize bank down on losses, cautiously up on wins.
once you get to a comfortable/desired betting level
continue to resize bets down on losses
but, don't resize bets up again until your bank is conservative 1/4 to 1/8 kelly

the above will provide good bank growth, protect wins and enable you to stay at the betting levels you desire.

:joker::whip:

moving the decimal point would not be good.
You mention a lifetime of grind to be a winner but that is not what you are set up for here with this game and bank IMO
If your unit is $10 and your roll is only 10k you are going to find out what is going to happen in a hurry and it very well may not be pretty.
If you spread 1-20 you are going to need balls of steel especially when the dealer repeatedly slams his s17 with baby cards AGAIN and AGAIN as you watch in horror.
Shoving $200 bets out again and again- at points you will have $600-800 on the felt for a hand- or more if you spread to two hands.

I'm not saying YOU will- but I know I could easily lose 3 grand in one session at your game. And lets say you start bad and have some negative variance early. Are you going to be comfortable firing those bets when your bank is 1/2 what it was?Or when you only have 3,000 left? You have more than a 1 in 5 chance of being wiped off the map completely which I can only assume will leave you bitter and dejected for many months and as well it should.
Unless you have good conditions for wonging- then your fine.