Sick to my stomach!

My loss today blew me away, I feel sick! I would never have expected to loss so much in 1 session. $850!! with a $50 max bet. After 20 or so sessions I was up $430 and now this. I still cant believe it. Over $300 lost on 1 shoe, count was hovering above the pivot yet I didnt win a hand.

Is this big a loss normal flux? I really hope not because I dont know how many more of these I can handle...

Jeff25 said:

My loss today blew me away, I feel sick! I would never have expected to loss so much in 1 session. $850!! with a $50 max bet. After 20 or so sessions I was up $430 and now this. I still cant believe it. Over $300 lost on 1 shoe, count was hovering above the pivot yet I didnt win a hand.

Is this big a loss normal flux? I really hope not because I dont know how many more of these I can handle...

Click to expand...

Once I lost $700 two times in four trips. I also have a $50 max bet and almost every time I go I end up having to buy in for at leat $500. Usually I win it all back but not those two times. I don't know how long your sessions are but according to Blackbelt in blackjack p. 131 if you play for 4 hours you have a 10 percent chance of losing 81 units. I assume you were playing a 2 deck game with a $10 min bet. You should not be sick to your stomach as long as you are never betting more that 1 percent of your bankroll at any one time.

Jeff25 said:

My loss today blew me away, I feel sick! I would never have expected to loss so much in 1 session. $850!! with a $50 max bet. After 20 or so sessions I was up $430 and now this. I still cant believe it. Over $300 lost on 1 shoe, count was hovering above the pivot yet I didnt win a hand.

Is this big a loss normal flux? I really hope not because I dont know how many more of these I can handle...

Click to expand...

I think I remember that you backcounted 6 deck games. I don't know the chances of losing $850 in one session but I think it is astromonically small.

I was playing a 8deck game w/ 85-90%pen ONLY playing positive counts. I never bet more than $50 or 2 hands of $30. My first 3 hundred went on 1 shoe! The next $500 took longer. This makes me think, "maby im making some big mistakes counting" even thought I know I wasnt because my bet raised at the same time the other counters' bet raised.
Mt session was around 5hrs on and off.

Actually...

Even though you're only playing positive counts, your variance (or swings) could still be quite large. Since you are wonging in you will have a higher average bet, and the more you bet, the higher your variance is.

I'll assume that 850 is 85 units for you. If you cant handle losing 85 units in a session, then maybe you should look for another game! Because it WILL happen again if you keep playing.

Jeff25 said:

My loss today blew me away, I feel sick! I would never have expected to loss so much in 1 session. $850!! with a $50 max bet. After 20 or so sessions I was up $430 and now this. I still cant believe it. Over $300 lost on 1 shoe, count was hovering above the pivot yet I didnt win a hand.

Is this big a loss normal flux? I really hope not because I dont know how many more of these I can handle...

Click to expand...

man i feel for you thats a pretty steep beat. i lost 90 units in one session a few months ago. it was a hard pill to swallow. turned it all around during the following two months and have forged on ahead. one thing i was doing was sticking around to long in negative counts. but i see from your other posts your not doing that. also saw that your playing the eight deck games. those are tough no doubt. i don't think such a loss as you had is normal in the sense that it will happen to you often. but it is normal that it will happen from time to time. probably your going to see loss's in the $350 range more often but not the big one you experienced. i've been told by a reliable source that when your wonging out reguarly you can expect some pretty heavy duty fluctuation. but wonging out definately beats playing all.
well i think you'll turn it around.
best regards,
mr fr0g

170 units....

Jeff25 said:

170 units....

Click to expand...

How many hours of play did you lose 170 units in?

Jeff25 said:

My loss today blew me away, I feel sick! I would never have expected to loss so much in 1 session. $850!! with a $50 max bet. After 20 or so sessions I was up $430 and now this. I still cant believe it. Over $300 lost on 1 shoe, count was hovering above the pivot yet I didnt win a hand.

Is this big a loss normal flux? I really hope not because I dont know how many more of these I can handle...

Click to expand...

Sorry, assuming you are playing in Ontario, it is within what you can expect. I've lost $2k in half a shoe, Wonging in and playing only very high counts.

This is a time to take it easy on yourself. In a way it is comforting to know it is not your fault and you can do everything well and still lose like that. On the other hand, it is disturbing, because there is nothing you can do about it. It's the way the math of the game works. You just need to have enough money and be mentally prepared for such sessions. Sorry but there is no other solution.

Jeff25 said:

170 units....

Click to expand...

Bogus Jeff. You'll get it back though. Still, when it (the loss) happens, it sure ain't no fun! It would be most excellent if we could waltz in and win every time but we don't have that large an advantage. To the Gods of Statistics, I pray that on your next trip a rapture of chips will befall you! I'm not really trying to belittle your loss, but you have to keep a bit of a sense of humor about it because it is a risk of the game we've chosen.

Thanks alot guys, the reassurance helped.

assuming you are playing in Ontario, it is within what you can expect

Click to expand...

You're not alone!

Jeff25-

I don't know if you saw this thread or not, but it might help.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1594

Jeff25 said:

My loss today blew me away, I feel sick! I would never have expected to loss so much in 1 session. $850!! with a $50 max bet. After 20 or so sessions I was up $430 and now this. I still cant believe it. Over $300 lost on 1 shoe, count was hovering above the pivot yet I didnt win a hand.

Is this big a loss normal flux? I really hope not because I dont know how many more of these I can handle...

Click to expand...

hey Jeff one more thought on this issue. you might consider using a stop loss point. it will not help your bottom line. that is if you are playing a winning game a stop loss point will not help your ev. but it wont really hurt either except that it will possibly limit the number of playing hours that you get in. i have both a stop loss and stop win point. it is only done for psychological reasons and can not help increase ev. my stop loss is my trip bankroll and i keep my trip bankroll at about 10% of my total bankroll. my stop win is if i reach about one standard deviation above my expected hourly win rate.
see link below:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=13648&postcount=16
again i stress such an idea is only for psychological reasons it wont really help your bottom line (if your are playing a winning game) it just breaks up the natural pain one feels from the stress of positive and negative fluctuation.

best regards,
mr fr0g

Hey someone should back me up on this one. His results were totally not expected. When you wong you only play positive counts so your variance should be much less right? The probablity for him to lose 170 units in one session is REALLLY SMALL. I mean I am sure he was counting right and it is bound to happen eventually, but this is not something that happends regularly.

supercoolmancool said:

Hey someone should back me up on this one. His results were totally not expected. When you wong you only play positive counts so your variance should be much less right? The probablity for him to lose 170 units in one session is REALLLY SMALL. I mean I am sure he was counting right and it is bound to happen eventually, but this is not something that happends regularly.

Click to expand...

actually you can expect some significant varance when you wong and are playing only positive counts. this is because you are going to tend to be betting higher amounts. so you can expect the swings to be correspondingly instense.

best regards,
mr fr0g

supercoolmancool said:

Hey someone should back me up on this one. His results were totally not expected. When you wong you only play positive counts so your variance should be much less right? The probablity for him to lose 170 units in one session is REALLLY SMALL. I mean I am sure he was counting right and it is bound to happen eventually, but this is not something that happends regularly.

Click to expand...

I think I talked to you about this on one of our trips to the casino.

The variance would be smaller if you played the same spread when wonging in. But when you wong in, you dont even use your normal minimum bet and start out betting 2u+. So when wonging you have a higher average bet, which results in more variance.

But I still think you're right that there is a VERY small chance of losing 170 units. At least for a couple hours. The variance does depend on the number of hours played.

supercoolmancool said:

His results were totally not expected. The probablity for him to lose 170 units in one session is REALLLY SMALL.

Click to expand...

That depends. He didn’t mention how long his session was. I’m guessing it was probably a few hours. It is completely normal for a Wonger to occasionally have swings of 50-80 units per hour, so a $10 Wonger can easily lose $500-$800 in a single hour of play. Although a loss of 170 units is a single session is fairly unlikely, it does happen from time to time. I agree with you that it is unlikely, but it is certainly not unexpected.

supercoolmancool said:

When you wong you only play positive counts so your variance should be much less right?

Click to expand...

Actually, it’s the other way around. A Wonger will have higher variance for several reasons. For one thing, they are never making minimum (1 unit) bets. If a player only plays at positive counts, their smallest bet might be 2-3 units. If your smallest bet is 2 units then you might as well double your unit size and call it 1 unit. That means that the average bet is higher so the variance rests on those few big bets that are being made.

Also, a Wonger can usually play more hands per hour because they are finding other hot tables without having to sit and wait for a particular one to heat up. They are abandoning the cold shoes and finding more hot ones than a play-all player.

On top of that, since they are avoiding all negative counts their units size will often be higher. That is because their bankroll is not being drained by losing minimum bets 75% of the time. Having a bigger advantage means having a bigger optimal bet. A play-all player might require an 800-unit bankroll to have a 5% ROR, but an aggressive Wonger may only need 400 units for that same 5% ROR. By changing his playing style, a $5 player suddenly becomes a $10 player making $20 minimum bets. He’s almost become a green chip player! His bankroll is the same but his EV has soared much higher that he thought possible.

That is the incredible power of backcounting. The short-term variance will be much higher, but the long-term variance will be the same and the EV will increase. It’s all about leverage…

-Sonny-

Jeff25 said:

My loss today blew me away, I feel sick! I would never have expected to loss so much in 1 session. $850!! with a $50 max bet. After 20 or so sessions I was up $430 and now this. I still cant believe it. Over $300 lost on 1 shoe, count was hovering above the pivot yet I didnt win a hand.

Is this big a loss normal flux? I really hope not because I dont know how many more of these I can handle...

Click to expand...

One of my first sessions i played i lost 130 units in about a hour and a half. Another time I lost 80units (4k) in about 5minutes playing heads up ($300x2 max bet) with great pen. 4deck game, fast dealer in a really high count that just wouldnt come down.

I've lost 100+ units a few other times in 3-4hour sessions. It really sucks, but it happens!

My session was on and off for around 5 hours. Its not the first time this sort of neg flux has hit me, I have lost 80 units on 1 shoe that stayed over the pivot for a long time. Lost 6 max bets, including a double and split, in a row. It hurts, but on the other side iv had nights where I loose no more than 3 hands and get over 6 Blackjacks.

When I jump in games my min bet is usually $25, I dont bother backcounting $5 tables becasue spots rarley open up. Max bet is $50 or two hands of $30, im not sure what my ROR is with a $5000 BR, but im sure its pretty low, although in my last two session iv lost 18% of it.