This "counting" stuff is hard, part 2:

Dear Diary,

Sorry I haven't been able to update more frequently. Today's subject, my impending doom.

My noobish counting efforts have been proceeding fairly while. For the last few months, each weekend I'll hit up a few different Indian casinos in my area.

I'm still using basic KO count, and maybe 10 or so indices. I'm still not brilliantly fast, but I can keep up at a crowded table, and proceed at a good clip when playing heads-up. I still have no act whatsover, although I am moderately chatty at the tables.

One tactical innovation I've started doing is playing two hands when possible, both to eat more cards from the civilians in high counts, and to smooth variance (and get a little more money on the table) when the count skyrockets. I've become a big of spreading, despite the feeling that it could generate more heat.

My ability to tolerate risk has increased substantially. This is due in large part to online bonus hustling, where I'll sometimes play a few hundred a hand.

Speaking of heat, I've learned that if you're betting under $100 around here, there just isn't any. The casino just doesn't give a damn. This is fine, as I'll spend anywhere between 4-12 hours at one shop.

Bankroll wise, I've gone from the $500 starting stake in September, and a little over $1000 from my first baby steps in Missouri, to, as of today, just over $2700. Plus, I've have a few thousand in my Neteller account from hustling online bonuses over the last few months. Combined, they actually mean that a $50 max bet puts me slightly under 1% Kelly. This is kind of exciting, it means there's light at the end of the tunnel where I can increase my spread.

And that brings up to today's subject: I feel like there is a big sword hanging over my head, and it's just waiting to fall on me.

I've decided that I've experienced fair-to-good flux so far. In fact, I've only had one losing weekend out of 9. As a diisclaimer, on a few weekends I've been down a lot, say, $500 (50-100 units, depending), and just played for a very long time until coming out ahead. It's not exactly the sagefrog method of walking away from a win early, but I'll definitely confess to chasing my losses.

This weekend, I got back from being out of town two weeks without any play. Plus, I'll be out of town next weekend before Xmas. I also had a crapload of comp coupons from a couple of casinos that I had to go redeem. I really felt it was my moral duty to play.

However, I felt an amazing feeling of dread and trepidation going walking into the casinos Saturday and Sunday. I thought It was coming, the trip bankruptcy that would cripple my payroll, crush my spirit, and send me off with my tail between my legs. Instead, on Saturday, after dropping $1-200 early, I came back to win a few hundred. I even won $50 with a slot coupon. So then, on Sunday, I thought "okay, that lulled me into complacency, now I'm doomed. But it was a similar deal, I lost $1-$200 early, then ended up winning a few hundred bucks. Heck, I was even about to leave, and a new dealer moved in who had destroyed me a couple of months ago, so I stayed and played a shoe which never really went positive, but I won about $25. It actually turned into my best weekend.

Strangely, I was looking forward to losing. I figure that I'm due some bad luck, and any winning sessions now are just prologing the inevitable, and will make the blow even harder when it finally does hit me with past due interest.

Man it's gonna hurt.

Try to avoid the negative feelings as much as possible. Traynor talked about someone that only played when they were in the winning mood and stoped when thier mood changed. I know it is probably complete lunacy, but I think he was very sucessful without using any advantage play techniques. My post has no useful informantion.

This is what I am talking about:

traynor said:

Publisher Lyle Stuart (a VERY serious bettor, with a "normal" bet of $2000) wrote a similar description of his experiences with baccarat, and in one of his books, with blackjack. He considered his mood and mental state of more significance than the probabilities involved.

Specifically, he studied what and how he thought/felt/behaved during sessions in which he won, and in sessions in which he lost. By identifying the difference, he was able to "predict" when his playing sessions would be very positive, average, or negative. By avoiding the "negative sessions" (his mood, not count), and leaning into the "positive sessions" he ran a quarter mil in the black over a couple of trips to Vegas. And wrote a fascinating book about it.

All bull, right? Not so fast in the judgement call. Consider, if you are counting, and you find a particularly advantageous situation, is there a change in your mood? Conversely, when the count goes sour, is there a corresponding change in your mood? The question becomes, which comes first?

In short, is it possible that Stuart "knew," from watching the shuffle, that he was more likely to win the next few hands, increased his bets, and won? Perhaps not consciously, but sufficiently "conscious" to feel a touch of elation, and one of those "I am unbeatable" moments that come all to rarely?

I have seen some uncanny events in time dilation experiments in psych research, in which the subject believes that "time" is slowed down. If you are interested, you might look for the time dilation references in Charles Tart's "Altered States of Consciousness" that involved Aldous Huxley and Milton Erickson. If such things can be done in time dilation experiments, it is obviously a capability of normal human function that can be applied to other situations.

Was Stuart "psychic"? Not at all. He just discovered that in particular states--relaxed, confident, and focused--he was "luckier." While some counters may feel threatened at the notion, I think it is more threatening to ignore a possible advantage that can be fairly easily gained with a little introspection.

Of course, all this can be blown off in a flash by recalling those situations in which you felt poorly, broke, busted, never-gonna-win-another-hand, and had an incredible run of cards that was better than anything you have experienced in a "positive" state, and finished the session 50 units up.

I think for most bettors, there is a very strong correlation between self-confidence, mood, and winning. Whether it is an uptick in mood because you realize the count strongly favors you, which in turn increases your confidence that you will win, or some other scenario, the bottom line is that emotional states and winning are often correlated. Perhaps not cause-and-effect, but definitely correlated.

Good Luck

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traynor said:

Does anyone realize that the entire "psi phenomena" research trip that started at Duke University (Dr. J. B. Rhine) was instigated by a young man who claimed that in certain "moods" he could exert mental influence over the dice? The description of his conversation with Rhine is an eye-opener, unlike the deathly boring "research" that followed (which seemed intent on boring participants to the point of utter disgust and resignation).

The point of the (professional) dice player was that he had studied his own subjective mental states, identified a particular one that was coincident with winning, and developed it to a degree that he was able to win substantial amounts of profit.

Some years ago, publisher Lyle Stuart wrote about the same thing in regard to both blackjack and baccarat. His descriptions were almost identical to the dice player at Duke University; a "special mental state" that enabled him to win substantially more than "normal." And, conversely, to realize the connection of that mental state to winning, so that he could stop playing when the mental state changed--avoiding substantial losses. (All meticulously recorded, not just conjecture.)

Has anyone else experienced this phenomenon? That is, a particular feeling of extreme certainty, self-confidence, bordering on exhilaration, coincident with winning? Have you done anything to develop it? Any ideas, suggestions, or comments would be greatly appreciated.
Good Luck

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I kind of feel it's useful to head into a casino with as much of the mindset of a loser as possible, for two reasons:

1) It's superstition, but I tend to get smacked down when I get too much hubris.

2) It makes it easier to grouse and whine like a loser at the tables, which might help make the pit think you haven't won as much as you have.

supercoolmancool said:

Try to avoid the negative feelings as much as possible. Traynor talked about someone that only played when they were in the winning mood and stoped when thier mood changed. I know it is probably complete lunacy, but I think he was very sucessful without using any advantage play techniques. My post has no useful informantion.

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Honestly, I don't think the universe cares if you are in a good mood or not. Just because you are happy doesn't mean reality is going to do whatever you want for you. I wish it were that easy!

Traynor said that you watch the shuffle and your subconcious sees everything. Then you are in a good mood in positive situations and different mood in negative. Your subconcious dictates your mood based on what it saw during the shuffle. That is what Traynor said in those posts I reposted.

supercoolmancool said:

Traynor said that you watch the shuffle and your subconcious sees everything. Then you are in a good mood in positive situations and different mood in negative. Your subconcious dictates your mood based on what it saw during the shuffle. That is what Traynor said in those posts I reposted.

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So basically your subconscious mind can shuffetrack perfectly, and you just have to be in the right mind frame to use that info, is that sort of what you're saying?

EasyRhino said:

I kind of feel it's useful to head into a casino with as much of the mindset of a loser as possible, for two reasons:

1) It's superstition, but I tend to get smacked down when I get too much hubris.

2) It makes it easier to grouse and whine like a loser at the tables, which might help make the pit think you haven't won as much as you have.

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I know just what you are getting at Rhino, and I can tell you're going to be a successful counter.

My first night of counting was at the Venetian on the night Roy was attacked by the tiger. My next 11 sessions back home in CT were profitable.

And the next year, I got hammered! But I know the feeling you are having when you get good variance- you feel like the odds are going to get even with you one day.

They don't. Anything you make above your EV is yours to keep. Conversely, if you have a bad session, the casino doesn't owe you anything on future visits. So "count" your blessings.

The grousing at the table I find is a winning act. I've gone so far as to condemn myself to suicide at the table, and at my regular store they think I am a sick, degenerate man, living on borrowed time. That's why they still let me play. Just don't let that stuff become method acting, where you actually live the role in order to make it more convincing.

ScottH said:

So basically your subconscious mind can shuffetrack perfectly, and you just have to be in the right mind frame to use that info, is that sort of what you're saying?

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Yah basically. I don't know what i'm talking about other than what Traynor wrote. In winning situations your subconscious will put you in one mood and during losing situations you will be in another mood. Learn to recognize when you are in the winning mood, and play accordingly while leaving as soon as you notice a mood change. I have never used this method.

EasyRhino said:

And that brings up to today's subject: I feel like there is a big sword hanging over my head, and it's just waiting to fall on me...I felt an amazing feeling of dread and trepidation going walking into the casinos Saturday and Sunday. I thought It was coming, the trip bankruptcy that would cripple my payroll, crush my spirit, and send me off with my tail between my legs.

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I know exactly how you feel. When I first started playing I would get scared every time I walked into a casino. I would think, “There’s a 50/50 shot that I’m about to have a losing session, and if I lose then my bankroll will shrink which I can’t really afford.” Basically, I was afraid of losing, which is one of the worst traits for a gambler to have!

The big change for me happened when my bankroll had increased enough to be capable of sustaining a prolonged losing streak. I started to think, “I don’t care if I lose the next few sessions because I can afford it. A few units here and there aren’t going to hurt me.” I even made it through a weekend loss of 140 units and felt okay about it. In fact, I was excited to keep playing in order to win it back.

When I’m having a losing streak I always get really hyper about playing as much as I can. The more I play, the sooner I’ll get to the end of the bad beat. It feels like I’m driving through a dark tunnel and I just want to floor the gas pedal so that I can reach the end as soon as possible. Unfortunately, it also causes me to overplay some of my favorite games. Being in the red makes me only want to play the best games available and play them very aggressively. I definitely need to learn how to be more gracious in defeat!

EasyRhino said:

Strangely, I was looking forward to losing. I figure that I'm due some bad luck, and any winning sessions now are just prologing the inevitable, and will make the blow even harder when it finally does hit me with past due interest.

Man it's gonna hurt.

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Yeah, but it's gonna hurt a lot less now that you have more of a bankroll to absorb that loss. A $500 loss would have bankrupted you before, but now it will only depress you. :laugh:

-Sonny-

Did I mention that one of the dealers had to put me "on timeout" because I was whining too much from third base? It turned into a nice little table joke.

I totally discount psi theory. However, I did have one moment that I had a chance to pull it off. I had a totally non-controversial hand, like a hard 18 or something, but I froze for a second before making my play (I was trying to remember the count or if I needed and index play or how many chips to bet or if I left the iron on, whatever). I regained my senses, stood, and the in the ensuing mess of cards, learned that the next card was out of the shoe would have been a three for me, and the dealer embarked on a ridiculous string of cards to draw a 21. It gave me a good chance to boast about my latent psychic powers, and disparage stupid stupid basic strategy.

When I walk into a casino, the first thing I think about is what table offers me the best game. The next is, where are all the honeys. I dont even think to much when playing anymore.. When I started, I was shaking when placing my bets, I read so much about how casinos would do this and that if they thought you were counting.

Now its like going to work; with eyecandy.

ya

sounds like your doing well lately. Thats pretty awesome I haven't been to the casino in a couple weeks but your post just inspired me to go now!

EasyRhino said:

Strangely, I was looking forward to losing. I figure that I'm due some bad luck, and any winning sessions now are just prologing the inevitable, and will make the blow even harder when it finally does hit me with past due interest.

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Here is an excellent artice from BJ21.com about how you are never "due" for a loss:

"Just because a person does better that his or her expected value doesn't mean he is then going to lose more than he or she is expected to."

http://www.bj21.com/boards/free/free_board/index.cgi?read=153264

-Sonny-

That's a depressing thought, cause it also means that if you are down you are not "due" an positive situation. Oh well, that's the way the cookie crumbles I guess.

You are always expected to make money. No matter how far down you are, if you keep playing you should get back in the black. Just as Sonny saidish. If you lose an TON lets say $2000 when EVing $25 per hour. Well you can't expect a huge +EV situation to get you out of the hole, but if you just make EV from then on out you will eventually get back to EV because by the time you are expected to have a million you will have $2000 less than 1 million which is basically 1 million. And then $2000 less than a billion and so on.

I suppose that I really didn't think that one through. Thanks cool, it is now less depressing.

Whats Up?

EasyRhino said:

I kind of feel it's useful to head into a casino with as much of the mindset of a loser as possible, for two reasons:

1) It's superstition, but I tend to get smacked down when I get too much hubris.

2) It makes it easier to grouse and whine like a loser at the tables, which might help make the pit think you haven't won as much as you have.

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Long time lurker - long time player - tourney player recently.

Just wanted to put the disclaimers out first so when I say this:

Are you out of your freaking mind?

I don't care what happens around me - I'm NEVER a loser. PERIOD.

You may diss the psi theory and all that stuff but psychology 101 tells us that we can become what we think! That's is one reason that I limit my table time to 120 minutes sessions - I time myself. Then I get up, walk around, clear my head, drink, etc... If at any time I find myself getting into a funk - break time - I don't hesistate!

Remember I'm not talking about feeling good about winning versus bad about loosing some chips/money. It's more than that - anytime I start down the "Dark Side" - out come the motivation tapes, etc...

It's ok to have an "act" but snap out of it man! :whip:

FGK42 said:

You may diss the psi theory and all that stuff but psychology 101 tells us that we can become what we think!

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Can you tell us a little more about the psi theory? I'm not familiar with it. However, I do agree that it is very important to play short sessions and to "clear your head" often. I often break up a 1 hour session into 3-4 mini-sessions by taking bathroom breaks during negative counts or when the table becomes crowded. It can increase your EV as well as your comps (or whichever you are playing for). It also helps to keep me alert and out of that "funk" that you talk about.

-Sonny-