Maybe a nice progression?

Hi everybody,

I live in holland, and because all casino's have continues shuffle machines it's impossible to CC.
I do like to play, and i would like to know what my best play may be.
I have 3 progressions i like, and would like to have your opinion about them.

The first progression:
http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=76&forum=Blackjack_Message_Board

The second (also a progression from carsch)
http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=70&forum=Blackjack_Message_Board

and the STAR-system (i assume you know this one)


Is there a possibility to play with a advantage against a shufflemachine?

Thanks in advance,

Regarding.

weetikveel said:

I have 3 progressions i like, and would like to have your opinion about them.

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What's the difference? The long term results will be the same. I would guess that these particular systems will lose about three times faster than flat betting. Use whatever system gives you the most pleasure for losing your money. Just make sure you are getting comps for your 32-unit bets!

-Sonny-

Sonny said:

What's the difference? The long term results will be the same. I would guess that these particular systems will lose about three times faster than flat betting. Use whatever system gives you the most pleasure for losing your money. Just make sure you are getting comps for your 32-unit bets!

-Sonny-

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Not all betting systems are equally bad. Some lose money faster than others. Basically, whichever system has the highest average bet will lose your money the fastest.

I vote for the one that flat-bets a small amount.

Weetikveel -- To help you understand progressions, take this super-simple one first.

Start with 1 unit.
Progress to 2 units after each win and stay there if you keep winning.
Regress to 1 unit after every loss.
We'll apply this progression to a "coin flip" where you'd end up breaking even if you just flat bet the same amount all the way. Over the course of 4 bets, only the following things can happen and would produce the attached results in each instance:

WWWW= +7 units
WWWL = +3 units
WWLW = +2 units
WLWW = +2 units
LWWW = +4 units
WWLL. = ..even
WLWL. = .-2 units
WLLW. = .-1 unit
LWWL. = ..even
LWLW. = .-1 unit
LLWW. = .+1 unit
LLLW.. = .-2 units
LLWL.. = .-3 units
LWLL.. = .-3 units
WLLL.. = .-3 units
LLLL... = .-4 units

Notice two critical things.
1) All the sequences that produce a win gain 18 units, while all the sequences that produce a loss cost 18 units.
2) Any of those 16 possible sequences has exactly the same probability of occuring -- and all will occur equally often over the fullness of time.
That means if your playing session is just four bets long, you'll be drawing one sequence from 16 possible sequences whose total adds up to Zero! And if you keep on playing, all 16 sequences will eventually surface the same number of times, again forcing you to break even. Either way, this progression breaks even in a game that was 50-50 to begin with!

But that's not all -- and to this part you must listen very carefully. It doesn't matter whether you analyze your bet/outcome possibilities for 4 bets, for 40 bets or 4000 bets. That's because for any number of bets, there are exactly just so many possible sequences. For 4 bets, there are only 16 sequences, so they're easy to analyze. For 10 bets, there are 1024 possible sequences. And for 4000 bets there are ....... well, my calculator just exploded.
Anyway, if for any number of bets, you laid all the possible sequences out on paper, you'd find with this particular progression that all the winning sequences will produce the same gain that all the losing sequences will lose.

But there's still more -- the same will be true with any progression for any number of bets! I've done some preliminary legwork right here on this post, but you can use these 16 sequences to test any confounded progression you can dream up -- anf they all will cancel out perfectly! You can't get away from it!

Renzey said:

Weetikveel -- To help you understand progressions,

But that's not all -- and to this part you must listen very carefully. It doesn't matter whether you analyze your bet/outcome possibilities for 4 bets, for 40 bets or 4000 bets. That's because for any number of bets, there are exactly just so many possible sequences. For 4 bets, there are only 16 sequences, so they're easy to analyze. For 10 bets, there are 1024 possible sequences. And for 4000 bets there are ....... well, my calculator just exploded.

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Great explanation!
I knew it in my head, but could not have put it into words so well.

For 4000 bets, I think it's 1.3182040934309431001038897942366e+1204 ..... a BIG honking number.

Every bet is independent and all have a 50% chance to either win or loose. No matter when and how often your big bet comes, they will always win half of the time, no matter what happened before, therefore in the long run it even out. Same thing for small bets.

asiafever said:

Every bet is independent and all have a 50% chance to either win or loose. No matter when and how often your big bet comes, they will always win half of the time, no matter what happened before, therefore in the long run it even out. Same thing for small bets.

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Have you ever heard of card counting?Every hand in a BJ game is not an independent event.The cards used in previous hands have a definite effect on what cards may be in your next hand.
Your entire post is wrong.

shadroch said:

Have you ever heard of card counting?Every hand in a BJ game is not an independent event.The cards used in previous hands have a definite effect on what cards may be in your next hand.
Your entire post is wrong.

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He may have been referring to Renzey's post about using a progression system on a coin flip.

I agree with you of course that blackjack is not independent events, so that would not be true for blackjack.

ScottH said:

He may have been referring to Renzey's post about using a progression system on a coin flip.

I agree with you of course that blackjack is not independent events, so that would not be true for blackjack.

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But I think you can say each hand is an an almost independent event since the edge only varies from maybe -.75 to +1.5, and on a given hand you can still win/lose regardless of the edge. Every deck or shoe starts out in the negative, so the long term for an advantage player should come out to a bunch of independent events at some average slight positive edge. Your spread wins you money more that the slight edge (not considering wonging).

You might also be able to look at each deck or shoe as an independent event from past decks or shoes in that your win/loss record on past shoes doesn't effect your win/loss on the next shoe. I think Renzey writes in Bluebook that it's not so much that the extreme odds average out in the long run, but become less significant.

One of the things I have to always keep in my head is if I lost on the last trip or trips doesn't mean "I'm due" to win on the next.

I'm new to this, so tell me if this makes no sense.

GeorgeD said:

But I think you can say each hand is an an almost independent event since the edge only varies from maybe -.75 to +1.5, and on a given hand you can still win/lose regardless of the edge. Every deck or shoe starts out in the negative, so the long term for an advantage player should come out to a bunch of independent events at some average slight positive edge. Your spread wins you money more that the slight edge (not considering wonging).

You might also be able to look at each deck or shoe as an independent event from past decks or shoes in that your win/loss record on past shoes doesn't effect your win/loss on the next shoe. I think Renzey writes in Bluebook that it's not so much that the extreme odds average out in the long run, but become less significant.

One of the things I have to always keep in my head is if I lost on the last trip or trips doesn't mean "I'm due" to win on the next.

I'm new to this, so tell me if this makes no sense.

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You are absolutely correct by saying you aren't "due" to win depending on previous outcomes...that is the Gambler's Fallacy if you wish.

However, I would disagree with your statement that the range of -0.75% to 1.5% makes blackjack an independent-result game (like craps, roulette, or hell anything else). That difference in edge depending on your counting technique, including index plays and betting strategy is what makes BJ a "beatable" game over the long run. At least a game in which a player can take advantage of certain situations (e.g. high counts).

It is in those player-favorable situations that the player makes larger bets, and in other situations that the player make basic strategy deviations that give you either 1) a better chance to win OR 2) less chance to lose.

So, it seems like you are on the right track, but that 1% or so edge is what makes counting/AP possible. But yes, you can lose in any count and win in any count.

good luck

Each deck or shoe is an independent event,except for occasions where you have noticed a crinkled card that gives you an small indication or some other marking..
But each hand is absolutely dependent on the hand(s) before it.If in the first round of a single deck game-all four Aces come out,it is now impossible to get a BJ.Contrast this to a craps table where the shooter has thrown six Sevens in a row.

shadroch said:

Have you ever heard of card counting?Every hand in a BJ game is not an independent event.The cards used in previous hands have a definite effect on what cards may be in your next hand.
Your entire post is wrong.

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I was referring to coin flipping, not to blackjack. Sorry for the confusion.

ChefJJ said:

You are absolutely correct by saying you aren't "due" to win depending on previous outcomes...that is the Gambler's Fallacy if you wish.

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Guess I didn't mean "Due a win" (Gambler's Fallacy) as much as thinking on future trips you will converge toward the average edge. Prior extremes (wins or losses) just become less statistically significant as you move toward the long term. As Renzey says on Pg 32 of BJ Bluebook II: "Lop sided results are not corrected, they just fade into the past". It's more likely the AP will be ahead and the BS or typical player behind, but over any period of time, the opposite is possible.

ChefJJ said:

However, I would disagree with your statement that the range of -0.75% to 1.5% makes blackjack an independent-result game (like craps, roulette, or hell anything else).

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Yes .. there's really no such thing as what I called an "almost independent" event, but it seems to me that dealt cards never have a large effect on the next hand. Enough to exploit and win overall, but not like craps where each roll is really independent, and you're relying on your hunch or Lady Luck to put money in your pocket. Even in shadroch's example ... if all aces are dealt on the first hand, your chance of getting an Ace goes from 13-1 to 0. How much does that effect if you win or lose the second hand?

Otherwise why does the annoying ploppy sometimes walk away from the table with a fist full of chips? Granted the neg edge will probably get him in the end, but when will that come?

GeorgeD said:

Guess I didn't mean "Due a win" (Gambler's Fallacy) as much as thinking on future trips you will converge toward the average edge. Prior extremes (wins or losses) just become less statistically significant as you move toward the long term. As Renzey says on Pg 32 of BJ Bluebook II: "Lop sided results are not corrected, they just fade into the past". It's more likely the AP will be ahead and the BS or typical player behind, but over any period of time, the opposite is possible.

Very true.

Yes .. there's really no such thing as what I called an "almost independent" event, but it seems to me that dealt cards never have a large effect on the next hand. Enough to exploit and win overall, but not like craps where each roll is really independent, and you're relying on your hunch or Lady Luck to put money in your pocket. Even in shadroch's example ... if all aces are dealt on the first hand, your chance of getting an Ace goes from 13-1 to 0. How much does that effect if you win or lose the second hand?

Otherwise why does the annoying ploppy sometimes walk away from the table with a fist full of chips? Granted the neg edge will probably get him in the end, but when will that come?

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I see where you are going with it, but if you discount the potential edge a player has in high counts, what good is counting? Interesting question about the ploppy...but how about the saying, "I'd rather be lucky than good"? For the most part, what good are these games without any luck? Some call it positive variance, but it is conceivable that a guy could go through life as a skilled counter and end up losing money.

good luck

ChefJJ said:

I see where you are going with it, but if you discount the potential edge a player has in high counts, what good is counting?

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Don't discount counting at all. It's your only hope, and for many it's well worthwhile. Just saying on any given day .. week .. month year .....

ChefJJ said:

what good are these games without any luck? Some call it positive variance, but it is conceivable that a guy could go through life as a skilled counter and end up losing money.

good luck

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Absolutely best to be lucky AND good.

ChefJJ said:

.......but it is conceivable that a guy could go through life as a skilled counter and end up losing money.

good luck

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Yep, but more likely to play stupid and lose. Just that it can go either way ..... sometimes stupid ===>> wins, sometimes skilled ===>> loses! That's why good skill or not, it's always gambling. For instance, here's someone who almost got very stupid:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5264

.. but hell .. maybe he wouldla won!!!!!

GeorgeD said:

Don't discount counting at all. It's your only hope, and for many it's well worthwhile. Just saying on any given day .. week .. month year .....

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You don't need to worry about me discounting counting...hmm...discounting counting. Sounds like either a sale on it or a stuttering fool. :joker: Nonetheless, I am a believer...my question was merely a rhetorical one you could say.

good luck

Technically speaking a progression can work in blackjack because of the cards being removed from the shoe


For 6 decks if you lost the last hand (likely low cards came out) so more likly for highs next and the win percentage goes up by something like 0.1%. A win drops your change by like 0.11% and a push drops your chance by like 0.15%. But a progression that is passed on better after 5 losses can technically work at blackjack. I know someone did a study on it once and it only worked on favourable games after playing a very long time, but it did work.