Get a Mathematical Advantage in Blackjack!

ATTENTION BLACKJACK PLAYERS

New Promotion gives players a Mathematical ADVANTAGE!
(Initiative GRAIL144)

When figuring out the odds when you are playing BlackJack the most important fact is that the player has to make his or her decisions first, before the dealer plays out his own hand. That one fact is what gives the house its biggest advantage which is about 8% over the player. Think about it….because the player acts first, if the player busts, the house wins right away, even if the dealer subsequently busts also.

But that's the casino's only advantage. Everything else about BlackJack gives the player a chance to regain some of that 8%.

GetOffTheRail Casino has decided to offer its BlackJack players a BETTER than even chance of beating us at the BlackJack table. OffTheRail is offering you the right to receive 10% of any monthly BlackJack losses. More than a chance to play even, OffTheRail is offering a 10% safety net when the OffTheRail advantage is 8%. That means you, the BlackJack player, will have a 2% advantage.

There is no catch to this offer. We will still be profitable at the BlackJack tables because not every BlackJack player will sign up for this offer. The players who don’t sign up will still be sitting in front of their computers hoping for “Aces and Faces” while you know that you have a slight advantage.

If you want to take advantage of this offer first download our software here:
*** link removed ***

After a simple registration, go to the OffTheRail Cashier Page, fill in your User Name, select “Card” in Bonus Type and then insert “BLKJK” in the Card Code field. You will then automatically have the 10% deposit placed in your account on the 5th day of each month for your BlackJack play during the prior month.

GetOffTheRail offers you the best BlackJack odds anywhere!

"Off the rail" or ...

... "off the wall." If it seems too good to be true, ... well, you know the rest.

To the B.H.'s - the people looking for "real" edges online. Please compute the true EV here and post if it's positive or negative. I'm not going to play it, but I'd like to see some members who are into this sort of thing take some money from the charlatans.

vincebreezy said:

GetOffTheRail Casino has decided to offer its BlackJack players a BETTER than even chance of beating us at the BlackJack table. OffTheRail is offering you the right to receive 10% of any monthly BlackJack losses. More than a chance to play even, OffTheRail is offering a 10% safety net when the OffTheRail advantage is 8%. That means you, the BlackJack player, will have a 2% advantage.

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Say what? A few unsuspecting ploppies may see that very flawed logic and actually believe they have a 2% advantage.

Xenophon said:

To the B.H.'s - the people looking for "real" edges online. Please compute the true EV here and post if it's positive or negative. I'm not going to play it, but I'd like to see some members who are into this sort of thing take some money from the charlatans.

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Don't worry, it's negative. Because they are giving you a 10% loss rebate means the house edge is reduced by 10%, but they player DOES NOT have an advantage playing that promo.

Wait, how often is the loss rebate computed? If you take the loss rebate as soon as you lose one unit, it would significantly affect the house advantage, probably making it +EV if you play it right.

For example, if they rebate the loss whenever you request, it would be like being on the receiving end of a 10% commission in baccarat.

moo321 said:

Wait, how often is the loss rebate computed? If you take the loss rebate as soon as you lose one unit, it would significantly affect the house advantage, probably making it +EV if you play it right.

For example, if they rebate the loss whenever you request, it would be like being on the receiving end of a 10% commission in baccarat.

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It might work in the short-run, like for one hand, or a few hands, but in the long-run it doesn't work because in the long-run playing at a disadvantage you will be down money. With the loss rebate you will just be getting some of that back.

I didn't look into it because I really don't know all the ins and outs, but maybe they offer more than just the 10% rebate- sign up bonus etc. The additive bonuses could be positive.

ScottH said:

Say what? A few unsuspecting ploppies may see that very flawed logic and actually believe they have a 2% advantage.

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That's why I called them charlatans. That is exactly what they are advertising, and what they want the general unsuspecting potential customers to believe.

ScottH said:

It might work in the short-run, like for one hand, or a few hands, but in the long-run it doesn't work because in the long-run playing at a disadvantage you will be down money. With the loss rebate you will just be getting some of that back.

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So why not just play one hand, and if you lose it get the loss rebate, and if you win it, you win the normal amount? $100 bets?

The ad says monthly losses so it doesn't look like you can apply the techniques mentioned here.

Not unless you lost that one hand then waited a month .

10% off your LOSSES. They have an 8% advantage off the top. If you bet $5000 that month you would lose $400. Then they give you 10% off of that $400 loss for that month which would be a $40 discount for a net loss of $360 which is still a 7.2% advantage for them. Does that sound right?

7.2% disadvantage? Heck I might as well play 3-card poker or baccarat.

And these suckers are so intent on making sure players know about the loss coverage, maybe a little TOO intent. Sounds like they aren't trying to convince you of the advantage but trying too hard to convince themselves, to downplay the losses too much.

NDN21 said:

The ad says monthly losses so it doesn't look like you can apply the techniques mentioned here.

Not unless you lost that one hand then waited a month .

10% off your LOSSES. They have an 8% advantage off the top. If you bet $5000 that month you would lose $400. Then they give you 10% off of that $400 loss for that month which would be a $40 discount for a net loss of $360 which is still a 7.2% advantage for them. Does that sound right?

7.2% disadvantage? Heck I might as well play 3-card poker or baccarat.

And these suckers are so intent on making sure players know about the loss coverage, maybe a little TOO intent. Sounds like they aren't trying to convince you of the advantage but trying too hard to convince themselves, to downplay the losses too much.

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I doubt they really have an 8% HA game, that guy didn't know what he was talking about...

If it was an immediate rebate and you were betting $10,you'd be losing $9 every losing hand and winning $10 every winning non-BJ hand.

A 10% of losses rebate with BS on a standard rules game WOULD give you an advantage. Anyone know how much? zg

Better check the rules!

ScottH said:

I doubt they really have an 8% HA game, that guy didn't know what he was talking about...

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He says the 8% comes from the player busting first. Then...

"But that's the casino's only advantage. Everything else about BlackJack gives the player a chance to regain some of that 8%."

That "everything else" includes the ability to split, to double down, and get paid 3:2 on blackjacks. What if you can't split or double, and BJs pay even money? I wonder if that would do it. Be interesting to find out what the rules are.

But not interesting enough for me to go check it out.

zengrifter said:

A 10% of losses rebate with BS on a standard rules game WOULD give you an advantage. Anyone know how much? zg

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NOT if you played enough hands it wouldn't.

It only works with high variance, such as one hand, or a few hands. If you play a whole bunch of hands you will definitely be down, and thus you will only get back part of your losses, which is not +EV. So it only works with high variance play.

Think about it, if it's a +EV game you might as well play 10M hands right? Well, if you play 10M hands you are almost certain to be down (the game itself is -EV) so then they just go ahead and give you 10% back. Big deal. So it only works for small number of hands. The question is, what is the optimal number of hands to play to weigh risk vs reward. The highest EV play is to play one hand and then wait for the cashback if you lose, but it's the higherst variance. Is this possible to sim?

shadroch said:

If it was an immediate rebate and you were betting $10,you'd be losing $9 every losing hand and winning $10 every winning non-BJ hand.

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It's not an immediate rebate. I wonder what the limit is on the loss rebate?

ScottH said:

NOT if you played enough hands it wouldn't.

It only works with high variance, such as one hand, or a few hands. If you play a whole bunch of hands you will definitely be down, and thus you will only get back part of your losses, which is not +EV.

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Au contraire mon frer.

For example, if we flip coins and you rebate me 10% of any losses, do I have the edge?

Or , look at standard baccarat - the house bet is +EV UNTILL the house collects its 5% commission - that turns it to 1.1% house favor.

Same principal with BS.

Now, someone please calculate how much my edge will be with a 10% loss rebate @ BJ std rules. zg

I guess i'm missing something,but if you are getting a 10% rebate on your losses,you get nothing unless you lose.The more you lose,the bigger your rebate. If you are winning you get nothing.

You lose 100. They rebate 10.your loss is now 90.
How is this Positive Ev?

I would vote that this post be busted, simply because it's a blatant abuse of the forum software.

Also, their terms and conditions are extremely poorly documented. Their site in general is poorly documented. They also refuse wagers from the US.

But anyways, let's look at the bonus, this is basic bonus-hustling 101. Guys like aka and myself eat this stuff for breakfast.

I find it useful to do a quick back-of-envelope EV calculation, given my planned strategy. The planned strategy, for the sake of argument, is to, once a month, make the largest deposit you can that's reasonable given the table maximums. Then, take half of your bankroll, and bet it on a single hand of blackjack. (only half in case you need to double/split). Try to either double up your money, or bust out. To ease calculations, let's assume it's a straight 50/50 game (since we're only going to play 2-4 hands most of the time, this is fine).

Assume a deposit of $100. 50% of the time, you win $100. Cash out. 50% of the time, you lose $90 (after loss rebate). The net EV is $5 over just a couple of hands.

Oh, and only play once a month. You can also see how you could enhance the EV further by setting a higher win threshold before cashing out, at the cost of more variance.

It's a pretty weak promo though, both in the sheer dollar amount sense, and in the type of bonus offered. The general hierarchy of desireability is:

1) Cashable bonus
2) Noncashable bonus
3) Insurance/cashback
4) Insurance cashback with restrictions