please help

misacar

Member
I downloaded a few bj simulation programs but they are all demos and
giving wrong results, and i am not living in usa so its hard to get it . So if i am not bothering you to much i would
like you to calculate my win per hour(in units) and risk of ruin for
these rules:
6 deck(dealt 4-4.5 decks)
6 burn cards (not seen)
double allowed after split
no dealers hole card
no resplitting or hitting after split of aces
split to 3 hands
no surrender
doubling on any 2 cards
ties push
dealer stand on soft 17
suited BJ pays 2:1

I am using Hi-opt 1 without indexes , except for insurance (i know that).
So first(results) when i am playing all hands, then when i am not
playing when true count is equal or less then -1(because they are to
suspicious when i am skipping a lot).
Of course i am betting 1 unit for TC <1, 2 for 1<TC<2, 4 for 2=<TC<3,
and 6 units for TC>=3
I have bankroll of just 250 units (that is why is small spread) . Do i have advantage at TC=0 ?
P.S. I forget to mention that there is allways about 5 players at the table (including me), so i guess that i am playing less than 100 hands per hour.

Please this will mean a lot to me.
Thanks!!!
 
Last edited:

newyorkbear

Well-Known Member
You state that suited BJs pay 2-1,what do unsuited pay/ 3-2 or even money?If its even money,I don't think its worth playing.
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
I'm sure he means that blackjacks pay 3:2, unless they are suited and pay 2:1.

I would run this, but I'm really crunched for time. Can anyone else do a sim? If not, someone remind me in mid-January.
 

zengrifter

Banned
I can't run the sim, BUT even with the bonusBJ pay you will need to exit at -1 or less and make your max-bet 2hands of 4u to derive a realistic profit - which I estimate would be about 2.5u per 100 rounds. zg
 

zengrifter

Banned
Well its settled!*

You have the advantage at 0 -and- your EV is over 3.75u/100 hands. I previously didn't realize that 2-1 pay suitedBJ was worth so much! zg

*Sonny ran the sim.
 

misacar

Member
Thanks zg . Just to make clear is that ev for your recommendation( last post ) or for my spread , and is it for all hands or with backcounting -1.
Well when I already writing I wonder one thing . In my demo sim there is selected ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ and sim is showing some results, but when I also select back counting it still stays ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ but of course different results.
Now I wonder do the sim think that all of that 100 hands are with TC>-1 and for that are those better results, or it just skip hands that are TC<-1 so with playing less then 100 on hour that better results are correct.
Sorry for bad explanation but my origin language is not english.
 

zengrifter

Banned
misacar said:
Thanks zg . Just to make clear is that ev for your recommendation( last post ) or for my spread , and is it for all hands or with backcounting -1. I wonder one thing . In my demo sim there is selected ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ and sim is showing some results, but when I also select back counting it still stays ‘playing 100 hands on hour’ but of course different results.
Thats for your spread, but my 2hands @ 4u top bet is a little better. When you sim the back-counting, which is the preffered method, you will "see" 100 hands per hour (ie, you are playing them but not betting on all of them) - you will actually be betting on about 30 of them. Thus, if you are in a casino with several to many tables with open spots you should abandon the shoe at between -1 to -2 and start again at a fresh shoe... not waiting for that shoe's shuffle. zg
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
Just wanted to update this thread with my own simulation results, and I'm seeing different answers than zg.

With Hi-Opt I plus an Ace side count, playing all hands, using your spread:
(Bet 2u@1, 4u@2, 6u@3+), I get an overall initial bet advantage of 0.76%.
In 100 hands, your expected win is 1.27 units.

I used 4.5 decks dealt, less the 6 cards burned.
 

misacar

Member
Thanks Ken, i suppose that without ace side count it would be around 1 . Just tell me what is my side deviation . And i think that if i use hi-lo the results wil be same as hi-opt with ace side count.
Again thans a lot.:)
 
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