Recent content by Grasshopper

I'm not so sure Adventureboy has it wrong. I was just re-reading this thread and decided to chart out some play to see what it looks like. I play online and track everything. I selected one round at random. Really! What are the odds of selecting this round? The one round I absolutely most...

Muppet, Nynefingers and Sonny. Thanks for all the input on this. Read, and reread , the posts and watched the video. I think I get the concept on the independence thing but a bit confusing. I will continue chewing on it. I got the point on the calculation. Probability somewhere in the...

Guess I'm having some trouble getting my mind around the independence concept. Let me re-read your postings and chew on it. As I alluded to in my post there must be more to it than I calculated, if only because my actual results differ so radically from the calculated. Thanks for your...

Ok guys, part of the problem is that I did not adequately define string so we get the independence problem What I meant was a string starting anywhere in the defined fields of 30, 120 & 240 respectively. Assuming the probablility of losing is 49.1% (.0491) for all 3 problems #1 Occurrence of...

muppet & Sucker I looked at muppets work with a clear brain in the morning and a cup of coffee. Works for me. I was using this to compare against my actual results on series of Online games which I thought was giving me way to many losing streaks. Turns out I am only about 20% off expected...

This is more complicated than I thought. Using the above chart I can see I have an error right off the bat. The first row is incorrect. I will need to start out with the odds of losing once, the first string, as 53.7 and change everything. When I do that the chance of streak of 10 is .2% or 1...

muppet, Thanks. Your number is close to what I thought the probability should be but I can't seem to get there with any confidence. Your concept is pretty good, but I think more has to be done to convert from 1 in 933 to x in 30 by dividing 30/933 which then becomes 3.2%. I think you are...

Thank you. But, I am interested in how to get the math correct multiple streaks expected in multiple hands. Personally, I use Win 42.4%., Lose 49.1% and push 8.5% in my calculations which converts to a 53.7% win and 46.3% lose if you ignore pushes. Below is my Excel chart for this. I am...

I've edited this and added details to the question below to make it clearer. I've tried this several different ways with different results. In Blackjack, Assuming a 1% House Advantage.... --What is the probability of a 10 hand losing streak in 30 hands --Followed immediately by a 10 hand...

Wow! You guys are good. I estimate a little over 1% of my hands are errors (that's the ones that I catch, "Darn, missed that, I shoulda ...."). Don't have stats on how many of the errors actually turn into wins. I would guess I would guess about 1/3, at least of the ones I could tell what...

How long to play a million hands for real? A few hundred million hands? Wow! Not sure I can wait that long. The way way I calculate it, if I play 8 hrs/day, 5 days/week, 52.14 weeks/ year it at an average of 100 hands per hour it will take me 4.8 years to play a million hands and...

Thanks Thanks guys. There is a reason I chose the handle Grasshopper.

Thanks for the info Canceler Thanks for the info and vocabulary reminder. I was wondering about that. Appreciate it a lot. Still seems like I am having an incredibly long run of good luck , though.

First, I am new at Blackjack. I have played Blackjack on and off in the past 20 years, but not with BS, not for long and not for more than $5. There actually is a question at the end of this which reads "How similar are the simulated games to actual play and can I expect pretty much the same...