10 much better than 11 with high TC

[Dschddny]

It seems that it's a much better situation if you have a 10-total than an 11-total vs a dealer card of 9 or less when the TC is very high. This is because in addition to the many 10-cards remaining, there are also many aces remaining, which will kill your 11-total (as mentioned in a previous post).

So, is it even a good idea to double on an 11-total with a high TC, unless you have an Ace sidecount which is low?

 

[Shaggy18vw]

I'll take 11, thanks

Yes,

There are 4 tens to every ace. In those high counts, without an ace side count, all you can do is assume a proportional distribution of aces and tens. Plus 5 count: 4 tens, 1 ace. You are still more likely to pick off a ten than an ace in this situation.

Trust the math. The indicies of your system were developed long ago, and are correct.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Now you see the big positive to counts like the Hi Opt II.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Yes, double on 11. The biggest boost you get from a high TC is the increased probability of the dealer busting. That's why you double on 8's and even 7's with a sufficiently high TC, not because you are eager to draw a 17.

There can be exceptions to this at extremely high TC's (example- TC>+15 using High-Low) where the betting correlation starts to break down and few counters have learned the full playing indices but these are counts you see once in many years, if that, and thus not a significant impact on your EV.

 

[eyesfor21]

more dbls

How about dbl a/7 with proper basic although,you no there
are not to many 2/3 left at all?

 

[Victoria]

Gut feeling

Since you know there are few 2's or 3's left, I am assuming a positive count.
The same cards that make your hand into a 20 or 21 are cards that can help the dealer get past his stiff with a 14-16. I would think a shoe heavy in Aces and faces giving you 18 or 19, would be a shoe that would increase the dealers chance of busting his stiff, so I double and the ploppies cringe.