100 hours of play

[3aces]

I'd be interested in feedback/critique of this approach and these methods, which have netted $10K gain so far in 100 hours of play. I'm guessing I have benefitted from some positive variance and that I am overbetting my bankroll.

-play mostly DD, 30%-40% pen, DAS, S17, NS, BJ3:2, wong out at TC -2 or -3, spread of 1x8: $50 at shuffle, then $100 TC2, $200 TC3, $300 TC4, max of $400 at TC5 or higher. Hi lo. Player advantage/EV?
-do some backcounting in 6D, wonging in at TC3, but worry that backcounting, combined with the DD wonging methods (cell calls, bathroom, table hopping), also combined with the bet spread, make heat a certainty. Seems like pretty obvious counter behavior.
-have learned to limit sessions after one backoff - I played far too long. I had a players card so I have been reluctant to get players cards at other casinos in that city since.
-sometimes bet $100 at shuffle to try to be a bit less obvious about spread, but there is no doubt I get some attention if there are several positive counts in a short period of time, so I leave that casino in those situations.
-use some I18 but still learning
-bankroll of $20K, trip bankroll of $8K

Thanks

 

[EasyRhino]

- If that $20k bankroll is non-readily-replenishable, then I'd call it titanic overbetting. Your risk of ruin would be approximately 103% Is that $20k figure before or after the winnings?

- By 40% penetration on the DD game, do you really mean... 40%? Or they deal 60% into the decks, and leave 40% undealt?

- And just curious, but how much do you actually end up wonging in or out DD games? I don't play them much myself, so I would suspect that would make them sweatier than wonging shoe games.

 

[Kaiser]

I'm trying to picture you wonging out of a double deck game with 30% penetration. That'd be more bobbing and weaving that Ali.

 

[bluewhale]

- If that $20k bankroll is non-readily-replenishable, then I'd call it titanic overbetting. Your risk of ruin would be approximately 103% Is that $20k figure before or after the winnings?

- By 40% penetration on the DD game, do you really mean... 40%? Or they deal 60% into the decks, and leave 40% undealt?

- And just curious, but how much do you actually end up wonging in or out DD games? I don't play them much myself, so I would suspect that would make them sweatier than wonging shoe games.

how the heck do you figure a 103% RoR.
if u use this, http://www.card-counting.com/blackjack-calculator-c2.htm, then its about 20%. which is reasonable.

 

[Kasi]

I'd be interested in feedback/critique of this approach and these methods, which have netted $10K gain so far in 100 hours of play. I'm guessing I have benefitted from some positive variance and that I am overbetting my bankroll.

-play mostly DD, 30%-40% pen, DAS, S17, NS, BJ3:2, wong out at TC -2 or -3, spread of 1x8: $50 at shuffle, then $100 TC2, $200 TC3, $300 TC4, max of $400 at TC5 or higher. Hi lo. Player advantage/EV?
-do some backcounting in 6D, wonging in at TC3, but worry that backcounting, combined with the DD wonging methods (cell calls, bathroom, table hopping), also combined with the bet spread, make heat a certainty. Seems like pretty obvious counter behavior.
-have learned to limit sessions after one backoff - I played far too long. I had a players card so I have been reluctant to get players cards at other casinos in that city since.
-sometimes bet $100 at shuffle to try to be a bit less obvious about spread, but there is no doubt I get some attention if there are several positive counts in a short period of time, so I leave that casino in those situations.
-use some I18 but still learning
-bankroll of $20K, trip bankroll of $8K

Thanks

Sounds OK to me. 400 unit lifetime bankroll. 160 unit trip bankroll.

Max bet at TC+5 of $400 might be a slight overbet with 20K roll but not much. Certainly not if it's now 30K!

The kind of question if I were betting as much as you, I'd invest in a sim and see how well your various proposed betting schemes perform.

 

[3aces]

Sorry, pen is 60%-70%.
Just started wonging out of DD at TC of -2 or -3 recently. It is a pain sometimes. You think its better to just suffer through the negative counts with the min bet? I've been alternating cell calls, bathroom, and moving to another table, so it has seemed to work ok at times.
Bankroll is 30K now, but I am still unsure about whether to downsize the bets. Seems to be some debate about that.

 

[Jeff25]

With a 30k account playing dd s17 das 65% spreading $50-$400 your ROR is 7.3%. You are making $83.88/h (59 hands/hour)

 

[ScottH]

- Your risk of ruin would be approximately 103%

Nothing can have over a 100% chance of happening! Unless you were just saying that as joke...

 

[Kaiser]

There is a 215% chance that 105% of you can't detect sarcasm. (+/- 5%)

:laugh:

 

[zengrifter]

- If that $20k bankroll is non-readily-replenishable, then I'd call it titanic overbetting. Your risk of ruin would be approximately 103% Is that $20k figure before or after the winnings?

Without calc'ing it my estimate of his RoR is more like 30%+. Now if he cuts unit size in half when the BR loses half, the RoR overall is acceptable.

How far off am I without using any calc-software? zg

 

[ScottH]

There is a 215% chance that 105% of you can't detect sarcasm. (+/- 5%)

:laugh:

I just thought I'd point that out since the original poster probably doesn't know it was sarcastic. He seemed to be looking for an exact answer.