15 vs. 8 Stand at T/C +10???

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Think someone ought go over the Basic Strategy variations at this site: http://www.gamemasteronline.com/Archive/BlackjackSchool/GameMasterClassics14.shtml (Archive copy)

15 vs. 8 Stand at T/C +10? Why? It's a near sure death at +3 as it is. OK maybe I'm missing something but some of these variations seem cockeyed to me.

Check the whole page out. Some I agree with but the rest often seem strange.

 

[zengrifter]

Think someone ought go over the Basic Strategy variations at this site: http://www.gamemasteronline.com/Archive/BlackjackSchool/GameMasterClassics14.shtml (Archive copy)

15 vs. 8 Stand at T/C +10? Why? It's a near sure death at +3 as it is. OK maybe I'm missing something but some of these variations seem cockeyed to me.

Check the whole page out. Some I agree with but the rest often seem strange.

They are all correct. zg

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

They are all correct. zg

OK I don't doubt you. However at the first glance it would seem that the dealer is more likely to bust with an eight up card than, say the nine or ten.

Granted there are many many combinations the dealer could have. However the idea of "Stand at +10" with the 15 seems excessively high. What is the statistical reasoning? In brief summary that is.

 

[Sonny]

However at the first glance it would seem that the dealer is more likely to bust with an eight up card than, say the nine or ten.

That’s true. The probability of the dealer busting is slightly higher with an 8 than with a 10 (about 24.4% vs. 23%). However, the probability of getting an 18 is much higher when you start with an 8 (about 36% vs. 12%) and the probability of getting a 21 after checking for a BJ is much higher with an 8 as well (about 7% vs. 3.77%). With an 8, the dealer is very likely to catch a good hand (about 76% of the time vs. 69% for the 10) so you can’t just sit and wait for him to bust at a "warm" TC like +3.

-Sonny-

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

That’s true. The probability of the dealer busting is slightly higher with an 8 than with a 10 (about 24.4% vs. 23%). However, the probability of getting an 18 is much higher when you start with an 8 (about 36% vs. 12%) and the probability of getting a 21 after checking for a BJ is much higher with an 8 as well (about 7% vs. 3.77%). With an 8, the dealer is very likely to catch a good hand (about 76% of the time vs. 69% for the 10) so you can’t just sit and wait for him to bust at a "warm" TC like +3.

-Sonny-

Thanks Sonny

 

[Kasi]

However the idea of "Stand at +10" with the 15 seems excessively high. What is the statistical reasoning? In brief summary that is.

I have no idea really and accept the index numbers on faith lol.

But I guess on this one the way I rationalized it was more from the player-hand point of view. Like, with so many small cards gone (10 more than high cards), the chances of a player busting on his 15 are much higher since so relatively few cards that would improve his hand are left. So, once he's busted, the dealer probabilities don't matter as much anymore anyway.

But, like always, it's really a combination of both dealer and player probabilities.

And don't forget these numbers can be different with different numbers of decks despite a TC always trying to relate to one deck.

 

[rdorange]

High count to start with

If the count is so high to start with, then the dealer with an 8 up card probably has 18..... and the player (if it is heads up) probably will bust, with that high a count.

 

[mdlbj]

tc of 10 with 15 vs 8. I would surrender. That is way to much money to loose. Kinda like a 14 vs a 9. Wakarimasen des Ka?

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

If the count is so high to start with, then the dealer with an 8 up card probably has 18..... and the player (if it is heads up) probably will bust, with that high a count.

Well this is my point: Hitting a fifteen against dealers up card of eight is suicide. On the surface it seems far more wise to just stand and hope that dealer holds a neutral seven or another eight card in the hole.

The tables nearby here never allow surrender.

 

[rdorange]

No surrender here

There is no surrender offered where I play, a majority of the time. If it were allowed, then yes, I'd yield! No surrender, I would always stand with that high a count.

 

[Dopple]

What systems is this count taken with. The info on the page does not in anyway mirror the Uston APC numbers I am familiar with. I thought at first they could be twice as much since Uston divides by half decks but the 15 v 10 stay on 4 is the same as UAPC plus some others but then 15 v 8 is about 20 with UAPC.

When we talk about counts in general does a UAPC count equate?