16 vs 7 vs 16 vs 10

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Percy

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know why you are more likely to hit (say) 16vs7 than (say) 16vs10?

(I am basing that statement on the fact that the strategy deviation index number is higher for 16vs7 than for 16vs10)

I am willing to accept the index number for what it is... but it would be nice to have an intuitive understanding behind it too.

Thanks for any help.
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
With a 16v10, you're screwed. Even if you don't bust, you probably won't beat a dealer 20, the most likely dealer hand. With 16v7 you are still likely to bust. But if you don't, you have a better shot since the dealer's most likely hand is 17.
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
QFIT beat me to it, but still going to post this...

Because vs. 7 there are more cards that can give you a winning hand.

Simplified example: Let’s courageously assume that the dealer’s hole card is a 10. Against a 7, an A will give you a push, and 2, 3, 4, or 5 will give you a win. Against a 10, a 4 will give you a push, and only a 5 will give you a win.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member


When the dealer displays a 10 or 'Face Card', she has a "made hand" when it is mated with any one of 8 cards. A 7 or better. The small cards (deuce, trey, four, five, and six) create plausible "bust" scenarios where you can hope for her to "bust" her "stiff" hands of 12 through 16.

When the dealer displays a 7, she has a "Made Hand" with only 2 cards. An Ace or a Face. She will demote her hand to a "stiff" when she flips over a 5,6,7,8,9, BUT there are 3 small cards which make it quite easy for her to finish with a "made hand" Namely the Deuce, Trey, and Four.

In both cases there are 5 cards to be concerned about from which the dealer creates a "stiff" hand.

The crucial factor is that with the 10 the dealer's final hands gravitate toward 20.
With the Seven they gravitate toward the weaker 17.

Neither of these two scenarios are hopeful for you, but one bodes better for you when you elect to hit your stiff hand.

When you contemplate standing on your stiff hand, you need to consider how hard it will be for you to win IF the dealer does not "bust"

What is obvious in this scenario, is that when you elect to stand on your stiff, it matters NOT AT ALL whether the dealer's final hand is a 17, 18, 19, 20 or 21.

BUT if you elect to hit you have MUCH greater chances of success against the lukewarm Seven than you do against the dread TEN.
 
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