18 a good hand?

[Cardcounter]

I would say that 40% to 50% of players will keep an 18 no matter what form that it comes in. If 18 comes in the form of 2 9's you will often get a splitting stituation that will produce 2 hands that are expectd to win. Plus the 2 split 9's usually form a better average hands than an 18. The other form that an 18 can come in is the A-7 form this hand is among the best soft doubling hands there are although a ploppy might critize you for doubling on it. Plus an Ace-7 also makes for a good drawing hand if you need to beat a 9 or 10 up which implies that the dealer will finish with an average hand of 19. In my mind I feel that I have a really boarderline hand except against a 7 which is the only time I feel I have a winner.

 

[eps6724]

Wouldn't this fall under the heading of "get your mind out of the way of your brains"? If the BS (or the count) dictates, should this not be what our play is based on? The last thing I want to do is have MY money on the table and be thinking...well, but, if, maybe, coulda, shoulda, woulda!!!:grin:
-EPS

 

[aka23]

18 vs dealer 2-8 has a postive expected return. However, there are situations where the expected return of the hand increases with splitting or doubling (soft 18). "Good" does not mean cannot be improved.

 

[Kasi]

I would say that 40% to 50% of players will keep an 18 no matter what form that it comes in. If 18 comes in the form of 2 9's you will often get a splitting stituation that will produce 2 hands that are expectd to win. Plus the 2 split 9's usually form a better average hands than an 18. The other form that an 18 can come in is the A-7 form this hand is among the best soft doubling hands there are although a ploppy might critize you for doubling on it. Plus an Ace-7 also makes for a good drawing hand if you need to beat a 9 or 10 up which implies that the dealer will finish with an average hand of 19. In my mind I feel that I have a really boarderline hand except against a 7 which is the only time I feel I have a winner.

I dunno but I think if u were dealt and stood on a hard 18 every hand, you'd still lose.

Which I think is what u r saying lol.

What is the dealer's average total anyway - above 18 I assume?

 

[sagefr0g]

yeah 18 is really not considered all that great a hand according to the conventional wisdom that i'm familiar with.
the dealer has a pretty high probability of getting a twenty. i lost my chart that shows the dealers probabilities for various totals but twenty is right up there.
i guess the truth be known there is hardly any total that you draw that is worth a darn against the dealer. even if you have a twenty the dealer is likely to come up with a twenty to push you or a twenty one to win. thats just how it is for just about any hand you draw.... that is the dealer is likely to best you.
what really wins for the counter is successful double downs (especially hard double downs), insurance and blackjacks. the normal hands we draw overall lose more often against the dealer than they win.

 

[Kasi]

i guess the truth be known there is hardly any total that you draw that is worth a darn against the dealer. even if you have a twenty the dealer is likely to come up with a twenty to push you or a twenty one to win.

That's the way it seemed to me the last time I played :grin:

 

[sagefr0g]

That's the way it seemed to me the last time I played :grin:

that's the way it is alright. your senses aren't lying to you .
that rule where the dealer just draws to 17 or better and wins if he busts when you bust is one steep hurdle to overcome.

 

[Renzey]

18 is an overall loser

Depending upon the exact characteristics of the game, if you were dealt a hard 18 on every hand for the rest of your life, you'd end up about a 0.65% loser. That's against all dealer up-cards combined. Of course, things become much worse against a dealer's 9, 10 or Ace.

 

[sagefr0g]

dismal propects

i guess one thing about the dismal aspect of just about any set of cards we are dealt that result in 'normal' hands (ie. not basic strategy double down candidates or snappers) is that even though we are likely to lose those hands there is some best level of expectation basic strategy-wise that those hands represent against the dealers up-card. the moral of the story being that sometimes we do win those 'normal' hands and that does help our bottom line as opposed to doing wild moves such as hitting a hard eighteen against a dealer's ten ect. sort of the ole you lose less with basic strategy than with out it line of reasoning.