21 + 3 sidebet

[gross]

I had a wild experience at one of the Indiana riverboats this past Friday. The bj tables were crowded, so I played straight bj at a 21 + 3 sidebet table (6d, s17, das, etc.) Because I was having a good session and had been watching the other ploppies loosing at bj but making money on the side bet - I played the side bet for the first time (the tc was +8 and I thought I might catch some faces with only two other players). (yes, I know the house has a 5%+ advantage on this bet). Here is what happened -

first side bet -10$ - J,K dealer Q win $90 dealer bust
next hand side bet - 45$ - 10,10 and dealer 10 win $405 dealer push
next hand side bet - 45$ - 8,9 and dealer 10 win $405 dealer 19
and then believing this could never happen 4 times in a row, I was dealt an A,K
snapper with the dealer showing a queen. Unfortunately I didn't play the side
bet, not even for the rest of the night. My question?

What are the approximate odds of getting a winning side bet on 4 consecutive hands from a 6 deck shoe? Approximately .1 x .1 x.1 x.1 = 1 in 10,000?

 

[The Mayor]

Nice run!

Of course, asking what the odds are has only one answer, the odds are a perfect 100% -- because the event has already occured it is therefore certain to have occured.

This reminds me of the way people rave about coincidences... and then try and tell me about the fantastic odds against this or that coincidence having occured. My question back is simple: what are all the possible coincidences that could have happend today? Out of that rather large set of possibilities, don't you think it rather likely that one or more of them would happen?

--Mayor

 

[Feep]

Which is what both terrifies and elates me sometimes about being an advantage player.

For the set of all possible players most will end up in the middle. Some will hit their EV, some won't.

But there is one player out there who will never lose. He just never will. Not because he is lucky, or good. Just because he happened to never lose.

And there is one player out there who will never win. He just never will. Not because he is unlucky, or bad. Just because he happened to never win.

Which am I? I could become either one in a moment, in the blink of an eye, and never know it.

Has it already happened?

What is my 1% advantage in the face of God?

Feep