A Few Thoughts on 8D Games

[DonR]

Unfortunately, the only available games to me are 8D games, usually with very poor penetration (75%-80%), very rarely just slightly better than that. The rules are S17, DAS. Typically, not enough available tables, in very crowded places (I find this to be the worst).

I started counting 5 months ago (for the total of 36 sessions, so far), and my grand total now is +5 units. The maximum I was up ever was +119 units, and the minimum -42 units.

The big killer (the day to forget) was when I lost 60 units. The ironic thing was that it was the day when the pen was the best, by far (7 out of 8 decks). Shoe after shoe, I was seeing TC's of +4, 5, or 6, throwing out my big bets, and losing probably 75-80% of those hands. The crowded table took its toll. Plenty of good hands around me, while I was struggling so many times with stiff hands.

Since, Wonging in is not an option, under these conditions, the only AP tool I'm using is Wong out at -2 (I'd rather do it at -1, but it would be too many bathroom breaks and phone calls). The I18 help sometimes too, but I strongly believe that it is Wonging out, that actually kept me play a break even game.

The way I bet is:

TC between -2 and +2 - 1 unit
TC=2 - 2 units
TC=3 - 3 units
TC=4, or more - 4 units

I know that the spread should be wider than this, but in reality, playing these 8D games, you very rarely see TC's higher than that, anyway. From my experience, had I been hitting those higher counts with proper 10, 12, or 16 units, I would be even lower in my grand total.

So, all in all, I'm not really complaining, playing a break even game is still better, than playing a losing BS game. A few free meals along the way, and it is actually very close to what I expected, even though I hoped for a little more.

Any suggestions on what I could do to improve my game (if possible at all under these rules and conditions) are appreciated, as always.

Cheers!

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

You absolutely MUST increase your bet spread. If you're betting 4 units at a TC of +5 on an 8-deck game, consider yourself lucky that you're up 5 units in the first place! Someone will come on soon with the ability to run sims, and you'll get a clearer picture, but here are my suggestions:

1. Bigger spread. Much bigger spread.
2. Don't play crowded tables. You want to aim for 100 hand per hour, which you won't get at these tables.
3. Wong in. I'm assuming that you mean there's no mid-shoe entry where you play? If not, then wong.

4. My most important suggestion: if all you can play are 8D shoes with no mid-shoe entry and crowded tables, save the money you're using for blackjack, travel somewhere with better games, and play those. Sounds like a cop-out answer, but the way you're playing right now is going to catch up to you if you don't change it soon.

 

[callipygian]

I strongly believe that it is Wonging out, that actually kept me play a break even game.

Wonging out at TC -2 will roughly halve the house edge against you (~0.3%) and spreading 1-4 as you have done will give you an additional ~0.3%. You're probably playing a marginally EV positive game, but you'll need to play hundreds of thousands of hands before you can be sure of winning money.

 

[EasyRhino]

TC 4, 4 units
TC 3, 3 units
TC 2, 2 units
TC 1, 1 unit

... you're doing pretty good so far...

TC<=0, you need a tiny fraction of a unit. Or zero.

Let's say your unit is $25:
TC 4, $100
TC 3, $75
TC 2, $50
TC 1, $25
TC 0, $5
TC -1, $0

So you've got more of a 1-20 spread... and we can work with that. The percent advantage would be larger, but the win rate would still be fairly low (like $5/hr) just because high counts are seperated by such huge gulfs in 8d, especially if you're not table hopping a lot.

 

[Thunder]

I know it's very hard in AC to find any 6 deck or better games where the tables aren't totally full at $15 and below. It's kind of funny when you think of all the aggravation you'll consider going through just to make a measly $5-$10/hr. I have found that in most crowded table situations, you'll average about 40 hands an hour where they shuffle by hand.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

$15 6 deck is better than $5 8 deck if you have a small bankroll. As long as you wong it. After some stiff negative variance I learned that just wonging out isn't enough for even a 92% pen 6D. It took a few times to realize noone is paying any attention to me as I am waiting to wong in my red chip table.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

$15 6 deck is better than $5 8 deck if you have a small bankroll. As long as you wong it. After some stiff negative variance I learned that just wonging out isn't enough for even a 92% pen 6D. It took a few times to realize noone is paying any attention to me as I am waiting to wong in my red chip table.

All depends. Assuming you are spreading from table min to some max bet, the $5 8D is most certainly better. If you BR is that small how big a spread can you get with a $15 min? And while Wonging in and out is the best, just Wonging out is almost as good and usually a lot more practical and practicable.

 

[DonR]

Appreciate all your comments, guys.

3. Wong in. I'm assuming that you mean there's no mid-shoe entry where you play? If not, then wong.

No, it's not the "no mid-shoe entry" rule. It is the fact that it is almost impossible to find a seat at the table, especially the $15, or $10, and in most cases, not even $25. Yes, sometimes it would be possible to do that at the $50 min - $100 max table, but that would be suicidal (or maybe not; hit it with the max bet, for a few hands, while the count is favorable...I don't know, probably not a very good idea).

4. My most important suggestion: if all you can play are 8D shoes with no mid-shoe entry and crowded tables, save the money you're using for blackjack, travel somewhere with better games, and play those.

Unfortunately, easier said than done. From what I have seen, all the casinos in Ontario are pretty much like this. In order to find a better game, it would probably have to be a long travel, with all the related expenses.

Wonging out at TC -2 will roughly halve the house edge against you (~0.3%) and spreading 1-4 as you have done will give you an additional ~0.3%. You're probably playing a marginally EV positive game, but you'll need to play hundreds of thousands of hands before you can be sure of winning money.

Even though my 36 sessions (probably something between 70-100 hours of play) so far, cannot be treated as a very reliable sample, I think that this can still give me a good idea of what the realistic expectations are. Your rough estimate confirms what my results, in this short period, have been - a very marginally positive EV game.

TC 4, 4 units
TC 3, 3 units
TC 2, 2 units
TC 1, 1 unit

... you're doing pretty good so far...

TC<=0, you need a tiny fraction of a unit. Or zero.

Let's say your unit is $25:
TC 4, $100
TC 3, $75
TC 2, $50
TC 1, $25
TC 0, $5
TC -1, $0

So you've got more of a 1-20 spread... and we can work with that. The percent advantage would be larger, but the win rate would still be fairly low (like $5/hr) just because high counts are seperated by such huge gulfs in 8d, especially if you're not table hopping a lot.

Yes, if I could only play positive counts, that should work in my favor. Unfortunately, playing conditions here in Ontario do not make it easy for you to do a lot of table hopping. In most cases, there's not too many tables without CSM's, and the number of hand shuffled, or ASM tables is usually kept to the bare minimum. Very often, I find only 1 or 2 tables open, and finding a seat there is an adventure. Yeah, I know it sucks...maybe I should move to Vegas. :grin:

 

[Blue Efficacy]

All depends. Assuming you are spreading from table min to some max bet, the $5 8D is most certainly better. If you BR is that small how big a spread can you get with a $15 min? And while Wonging in and out is the best, just Wonging out is almost as good and usually a lot more practical and practicable.

I guess the big difference is it is much easier to Wong In efficiently on the less crowded $15 table. Lower tables are often so crowded that you have to grab a spot when you can. And you have to make sure the dealer saves your spot when you "wong out" otherwise it won't be there when you return.

But thankfully 8D games are not prevalent in my parts, so it was just an example. Maybe I exaggerated a bit, but I have had more success with higher mins and being more selective with my Wonging In. I won't wong in 4D until +3 or DD until +4. Of course, the eye would probably get pissed at me if I wonged the DD excessively, so I have to be careful.

Good thing the DD games around me are shoe games so I can count them from the multideck table I am currently playing at, as long as some ploppy isn't in my way