Okay so hypothetically ive practiced counting and I am decent. I've run the simulations and from that the math says I can expect to win $10 an hour. I'm in Vegas day 1 of a trip. My first day I plan to hit several casinos and play about 8 hours actually at the tables. So I should expect close to $80 for the day. Given Variance I think it would be fair to assume I would make between $40 and $120. So First Casino sit down and im extremely lucky in the first 30 mins im up $120. Now heres where im confused by the math. If I take the $10 an hour figure I could reasonabbly expect to continue my daily play and end up with another $75 grand total for the day would be $195. But if I look at this with my limited understanding of statistics. I would only have lets say a 15% expectation of finishing the day with more than $120 and a 70% expectation of finishing the day between $40 and $120. And a 15% expectation of walking away with less then $40. Now if I go by the $10 dollar an hour figure I sit at the table and continue to grind. If I go by the $40 to $120 figure I take a taxi to the local strip bar and enjoy the rest of my day in the company of pretty women. Can someone clarify what the correct move would be.
a little confused by the math.
- Thread starter pooker101
- Start date
Shaggy18vw
Well-Known Member
Variance is a much wilder beast!
By the end of your life, you should expect to be around the $10 an hour rate. Just a ball park figure, but at the end of 8 hours of play it wouldn't be unreasonable to be up $1500 to down $1000. This is just off the cuff, but my guess is you could expect to be within this range 90% of the time for any 8 hour session.
By the end of your life, you should expect to be around the $10 an hour rate. Just a ball park figure, but at the end of 8 hours of play it wouldn't be unreasonable to be up $1500 to down $1000. This is just off the cuff, but my guess is you could expect to be within this range 90% of the time for any 8 hour session.
stainless steel rat
Well-Known Member
more like
-100 to +200. Variance can be wild. _very wild_. I have seen wild runs up and down. For example, in one day, playing DD at 4 different tables, I started at $1000, reached over +2200, dropped to $800, and finished at +1700. Had I been done after the first session, I was well off. After the second I was toast. After the third, I was again ahead. That kind of roller-coaster is not just normal, it is a given.
-100 to +200. Variance can be wild. _very wild_. I have seen wild runs up and down. For example, in one day, playing DD at 4 different tables, I started at $1000, reached over +2200, dropped to $800, and finished at +1700. Had I been done after the first session, I was well off. After the second I was toast. After the third, I was again ahead. That kind of roller-coaster is not just normal, it is a given.
Thanks but...
Thanks for your responses you have clarified for me how off on variance my understanding was.
But if I can I would like to ask again my original question.
Shaggy you wrote that any given day Icould expect a variance of between -1k and +1.5k
about 90% of the time. So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call it a day or should i continue to play. The way I see it only 10% of the time could I expect to walk away with more and 90% of the time I could expect to walk away with less.
Stainless you wrote a variance of -100 to +200 an hour. With those figures when you were up 1200 it seems you were way ahead of the expected variance beast and most likely if you played more you would go down in money. You ended the day up $700 Wouldnt it have been smarter to call it a day at $1200 and not expose yourself to any more scrutiny by the casino emotional turmoil of the variance roller coaster and fatigue from grinding? or by the math were your expectations that you would make more money and it was smarter to continue play.
Thanks for your responses you have clarified for me how off on variance my understanding was.
But if I can I would like to ask again my original question.
Shaggy you wrote that any given day Icould expect a variance of between -1k and +1.5k
about 90% of the time. So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call it a day or should i continue to play. The way I see it only 10% of the time could I expect to walk away with more and 90% of the time I could expect to walk away with less.
Stainless you wrote a variance of -100 to +200 an hour. With those figures when you were up 1200 it seems you were way ahead of the expected variance beast and most likely if you played more you would go down in money. You ended the day up $700 Wouldnt it have been smarter to call it a day at $1200 and not expose yourself to any more scrutiny by the casino emotional turmoil of the variance roller coaster and fatigue from grinding? or by the math were your expectations that you would make more money and it was smarter to continue play.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Always keep playing - you might keep winning!
> So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call
> it a day or should i continue to play.
You should continue playing. Here's why:
If you quit playing, you will have won $1500 playing blackjack. Period. You will never get the chance to win any more than that in your lifetime. If you continue playing you are very likely to have several losing sessions, but you will have more opportunities to keep winning.
Scenario:
Two guys sit down at a blackjack table, each expecting to win $10 per hour. Both players win $1500 in 8 hours of play.
Player A is happy with his lucky win and decides to quit forever.
Player B plays for 150 more hours. Although Player B has some terrible losing sessions, he manages to reach his expectation after those 150 hours. He has now played a total of 158 hours for a win of $1580. Despite the fact that he "lost back" most of his lucky winnings from the beginning, he was able to win more than the player who quit right away.
Playing blackjack can be similar to having a regular job (assuming that your boss always pays you way too much, doesn't pay you at all, and often steals from your wallet). The only way to continue making money is to work. The more hours you work the more money you can expect to earn. The more you work the more likely you are to reach your expected wage. Positive variance can be good, but a serious player is more concerned with continuing to win more money for as long as they can. Would you quit your job and retire just because your boss gave you an extra big holiday bonus?
At least that's how I think about it.
-Sonny-
> So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call
> it a day or should i continue to play.
You should continue playing. Here's why:
If you quit playing, you will have won $1500 playing blackjack. Period. You will never get the chance to win any more than that in your lifetime. If you continue playing you are very likely to have several losing sessions, but you will have more opportunities to keep winning.
Scenario:
Two guys sit down at a blackjack table, each expecting to win $10 per hour. Both players win $1500 in 8 hours of play.
Player A is happy with his lucky win and decides to quit forever.
Player B plays for 150 more hours. Although Player B has some terrible losing sessions, he manages to reach his expectation after those 150 hours. He has now played a total of 158 hours for a win of $1580. Despite the fact that he "lost back" most of his lucky winnings from the beginning, he was able to win more than the player who quit right away.
Playing blackjack can be similar to having a regular job (assuming that your boss always pays you way too much, doesn't pay you at all, and often steals from your wallet). The only way to continue making money is to work. The more hours you work the more money you can expect to earn. The more you work the more likely you are to reach your expected wage. Positive variance can be good, but a serious player is more concerned with continuing to win more money for as long as they can. Would you quit your job and retire just because your boss gave you an extra big holiday bonus?
At least that's how I think about it.
-Sonny-
You have mythological thinking
>So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call it a day or should i continue to play.
Your odds in the future do not change based on what has happened in the past. You have the same odds after each deck is shuffled and begun. Play if you are rested or have the bankroll. Just because you have won a certain amount does not preclude winning more. Likewise for losing.
Did you buy my book? I explain this in great detail in Part 3. I've got a copy right here with your name on it...
-Mayor
>So say in 3 hours I hit +1.5k does that mean it would be smarter to call it a day or should i continue to play.
Your odds in the future do not change based on what has happened in the past. You have the same odds after each deck is shuffled and begun. Play if you are rested or have the bankroll. Just because you have won a certain amount does not preclude winning more. Likewise for losing.
Did you buy my book? I explain this in great detail in Part 3. I've got a copy right here with your name on it...
-Mayor
stainless steel rat
Well-Known Member
do not make that mistake!
You said I could have walked away ahead. It doesn't work like that. For example, if I play 400 hands in a row, and end up +1000 bucks, I could stop and the first session tomorrow might see me lose $1000. Or if I continued playing today I could lose that same $1000. You can't "quit ahead" today and bank that profit. Because you don't start over tomorrow. Your playing time is one long string of shoes that are not related.
That is dangerous thinking, believing you might outwit the goddess of luck.
She's always there, always ready to press the red button and start a long negative swing, or on occasion, she punches the green button and you have a long positive swing. But whether you play 2000 hands in a day, or 200 hands a day for 10 days, your expected results will be _exactly_ the same..
if your EV is $20 per hour, over the long haul you are going to make $20 per hour. Some days it will be way over, some days it will be way under. But over the long haul, it's going to be $20... you have to trust the math and play the game according to your count and bet schedule...
You said I could have walked away ahead. It doesn't work like that. For example, if I play 400 hands in a row, and end up +1000 bucks, I could stop and the first session tomorrow might see me lose $1000. Or if I continued playing today I could lose that same $1000. You can't "quit ahead" today and bank that profit. Because you don't start over tomorrow. Your playing time is one long string of shoes that are not related.
That is dangerous thinking, believing you might outwit the goddess of luck.
She's always there, always ready to press the red button and start a long negative swing, or on occasion, she punches the green button and you have a long positive swing. But whether you play 2000 hands in a day, or 200 hands a day for 10 days, your expected results will be _exactly_ the same..if your EV is $20 per hour, over the long haul you are going to make $20 per hour. Some days it will be way over, some days it will be way under. But over the long haul, it's going to be $20... you have to trust the math and play the game according to your count and bet schedule...
stainless steel rat
Well-Known Member
one more point.
I didn't play 4 hours in one casino. I use a "one hour rule" unless I am playing a shoe game for fun with family or something. When I play "serious BJ" you'll never see me at a table for over an hour, win lose or draw...
I didn't play 4 hours in one casino. I use a "one hour rule" unless I am playing a shoe game for fun with family or something. When I play "serious BJ" you'll never see me at a table for over an hour, win lose or draw...
thanks
Thanks this answers it I think. Ive always had a problem reconciling theese two things but what I think I'm hearing is that trust the 1.5% grind forever part, the
expectation is just that expectation a yardstick of kinda what to expect. As for the book as soon as I come into money its on my list of things to buy.
Thanks this answers it I think. Ive always had a problem reconciling theese two things but what I think I'm hearing is that trust the 1.5% grind forever part, the
expectation is just that expectation a yardstick of kinda what to expect. As for the book as soon as I come into money its on my list of things to buy.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Very astute observation
"Wouldnt it have been smarter to call it a day at $1200 and not expose yourself to any more scrutiny by the casino emotional turmoil of the variance roller coaster and fatigue from grinding? or by the math were your expectations that you would make more money and it was smarter to continue play."
That's quite amazing that you'd realize this without being an experienced player. Yes, what everyone here is saying is correct about one shoe not affecting the next (first approximation) and that past performance is no indicator of future results, BUT...
You are not a computer, and the casino is not the RAM inside your computer. You do have emotions (although you must learn to control these somewhat) and you are subject to fatigue. Making mistakes in any human endeavor due to fatigue is like having bad breath- you will be the last one to know. You just have to assume that after 6-20 hours of play your efficiency will go down and there's nothing you can do about it but sleep. And it is true that having an extraordinary winning night could attract unwanted attention and detract from your ability to play in the future, but this is a hard judgment call that only a lot of experience will be able to tell you how to handle.
"Wouldnt it have been smarter to call it a day at $1200 and not expose yourself to any more scrutiny by the casino emotional turmoil of the variance roller coaster and fatigue from grinding? or by the math were your expectations that you would make more money and it was smarter to continue play."
That's quite amazing that you'd realize this without being an experienced player. Yes, what everyone here is saying is correct about one shoe not affecting the next (first approximation) and that past performance is no indicator of future results, BUT...
You are not a computer, and the casino is not the RAM inside your computer. You do have emotions (although you must learn to control these somewhat) and you are subject to fatigue. Making mistakes in any human endeavor due to fatigue is like having bad breath- you will be the last one to know. You just have to assume that after 6-20 hours of play your efficiency will go down and there's nothing you can do about it but sleep. And it is true that having an extraordinary winning night could attract unwanted attention and detract from your ability to play in the future, but this is a hard judgment call that only a lot of experience will be able to tell you how to handle.
stainless steel rat
Well-Known Member
more..
I may have done a poor job of explaining that up/down swing. It was over (I believe, I don't have my log here by me) four playing sessions of no more than one hour each, not at the same table/pit, and except for two of the four sessions not at the same casino. I subscribe to the idea of "hit and run" even at reasonably low stakes. Keeps attention down. Keeps recognition down. Even on the MS coast I can play two dozen 1 hour sessions without being seen more than once per day for an hour or less at any one table/casino...
May be a bit of "overkill" but since I want to keep playing down there due to the proximity to where I live, I'll be more cautious...
I may have done a poor job of explaining that up/down swing. It was over (I believe, I don't have my log here by me) four playing sessions of no more than one hour each, not at the same table/pit, and except for two of the four sessions not at the same casino. I subscribe to the idea of "hit and run" even at reasonably low stakes. Keeps attention down. Keeps recognition down. Even on the MS coast I can play two dozen 1 hour sessions without being seen more than once per day for an hour or less at any one table/casino...
May be a bit of "overkill" but since I want to keep playing down there due to the proximity to where I live, I'll be more cautious...
phantom007
Well-Known Member
Strip Bar gets my Vote!.......
May I propose that you play in DT-LV, therefore you can walk to the Strip Bar, thus cutting expenses, increasing EV, and decreasing Variance.
During my last LV trip, I saw a billboard advertising something like "Our Strippers come to your hotel room!"
For my next LV trip, trying to figure out how to get my walnut kitchen table shipped to my room while I am there. It needs refinished. Maybe they can strip it while I am at the tables.
ph007.
May I propose that you play in DT-LV, therefore you can walk to the Strip Bar, thus cutting expenses, increasing EV, and decreasing Variance.
During my last LV trip, I saw a billboard advertising something like "Our Strippers come to your hotel room!"
For my next LV trip, trying to figure out how to get my walnut kitchen table shipped to my room while I am there. It needs refinished. Maybe they can strip it while I am at the tables.
ph007.
How could you be mad at a winner?????
How could you be mad at a winner?????
FOR A LOCAL
You're up fifteen hundred dollars. You walk out the door go home see the familly have a nice dinner and watch some movies. Of course you would like to win a million dollars!!! The sun will go down and the next day when the sun comes up again it will be a new day, a new session, a bankroll with some of the winnings from the day before and some money spent on (hopefully) important things. Remember, your phyical condition i.e. tired, drunk, in a bad mood, or been playing a long time all have BIG effects on your decisions.
FOR THE PERSON OUT OF TOWN
You know that you're only in town for so long; Therefore, you can mathematically only play so long. Then maybe it's better to continue playing, but remember that just as easy you go up, you can go down. Also, are you on the trip because your down to your last 1,500 and you owe the mob 10,000 rents due, and your wife is being a pain in your ass!!! Or, you're worth millions and the 1,500 doesn't make a difference in your life then have fun and play, but don't forget about the swings.
To put it in short: You just have to go with your heart
How could you be mad at a winner?????
FOR A LOCAL
You're up fifteen hundred dollars. You walk out the door go home see the familly have a nice dinner and watch some movies. Of course you would like to win a million dollars!!! The sun will go down and the next day when the sun comes up again it will be a new day, a new session, a bankroll with some of the winnings from the day before and some money spent on (hopefully) important things. Remember, your phyical condition i.e. tired, drunk, in a bad mood, or been playing a long time all have BIG effects on your decisions.
FOR THE PERSON OUT OF TOWN
You know that you're only in town for so long; Therefore, you can mathematically only play so long. Then maybe it's better to continue playing, but remember that just as easy you go up, you can go down. Also, are you on the trip because your down to your last 1,500 and you owe the mob 10,000 rents due, and your wife is being a pain in your ass!!! Or, you're worth millions and the 1,500 doesn't make a difference in your life then have fun and play, but don't forget about the swings.
To put it in short: You just have to go with your heart