A7 Question

[BLUE]

13 divided into 1 rounded off is 8%. When an A7 hand is hit for improvement an A, 2, or 3 will do that. Is the chance for improvement 8% or 24%?

 

[shadroch]

With A/7, you can improve or keep the same total with an A,2,3 or any of the four ten valued cards.So 7 out of 13 times you will improve or keep your hand the same.Thats about 55% of the time.
If you are asking solely about improving,thats 3/13,a bit under 25%.

 

[Kasi]

13 divided into 1 rounded off is 8%. When an A7 hand is hit for improvement an A, 2, or 3 will do that. Is the chance for improvement 8% or 24%?

No big deal, but since 1 Ace is already used, and also a 7, there's only a 11/50 chance of improving rather than 12/50.

That changes with the number of decks.

Not to mention you can still improve even if you get a 4-8 on the next card.

 

[Canceler]

Not to mention you can still improve even if you get a 4-8 on the next card.

Yes, you can hit again. People sometimes don't take that into consideration.

 

[shadroch]

But not if you double down,which is frequent for that hand.

 

[ihate17]

Yesterday A,7 vs 10

Yes, you can hit again. People sometimes don't take that into consideration.

Yesterday I get an A,7, I hit get a 4, A, 8 for 21.
Those who say you can only improve with an A,2,or 3 are either speaking about doubling A,7 or do not know what they are talking about.

I also busted A,7 in the same situation. Got an 8 then a bust card and you know when the dealer turned her 20, the bust felt just like busting a stiff against a 20.

ihate17

 

[sagefr0g]

Yesterday I get an A,7, I hit get a 4, A, 8 for 21.
Those who say you can only improve with an A,2,or 3 are either speaking about doubling A,7 or do not know what they are talking about.

I also busted A,7 in the same situation. Got an 8 then a bust card and you know when the dealer turned her 20, the bust felt just like busting a stiff against a 20.

ihate17

i think this is a great point. as far as playing strategy goes we can just do the best we can which is basic strategy with indices and all of that is often not enough but it is the best we can do. the moral is that we diminish the damage to the greatest extent over time even though it may not feel like it lol. keeping this in mind (ie. the truth of the matter which is we lose more hands than we win) i believe can soften the psychological impact that losing so often when one has done one's best brings about.
then we can muster our courage to put those bigger bets out when the time should be right.

 

[Kasi]

But not if you double down,which is frequent for that hand.

Who knows what he meant but, if you are going to assume a dealer 3rd card is out, which I wasn't, obviously that will also effect your chances of improving on your total. And, if you want to assume he only doubles correctly, sometimes that extra 3 will also sometimes be gone also changing the chances of improving on original total. In case that guy really cares lol.

And, even after you are dealt an A,7, you might only be able to double 1 of 5 times, if that it was you meant by frequent.

And I doubt you even get an A,7 4 times in 1000 hands.

You'd think he might have better things to worry about than nonsense such as this lol.

 

[Kasi]

i think this is a great point. as far as playing strategy goes we can just do the best we can which is basic strategy... /QUOTE]

It is a great point.

We are right when we play correctly and wrong when we don't. Winning and losing have nothing to do with it.

Since nobody ever believes me, maybe it will help to know Schlesinger said it lol.

Although I suppose a counter argument can be made for poor John Day who

died defending his right of way.
Although he was as right as the day is long,
He's just as dead as if he was wrong.

That being said, in case ihate17 cares, it actually would be correct BS to always stand on A,7,8 vs dealer 10 lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

i think this is a great point. as far as playing strategy goes we can just do the best we can which is basic strategy... /

It is a great point.

We are right when we play correctly and wrong when we don't. Winning and losing have nothing to do with it.

Since nobody ever believes me, maybe it will help to know Schlesinger said it lol.

Although I suppose a counter argument can be made for poor John Day who

died defending his right of way.
Although he was as right as the day is long,
He's just as dead as if he was wrong.

That being said, in case ihate17 cares, it actually would be correct BS to always stand on A,7,8 vs dealer 10 lol.

it's so crazy. well at least to me it is. basic strategy i mean. when i first learned it i was amazed at how much more sucessful my play was. it was a revelation for me. but after time and experience playing with it i'm struck by how truely limited it is lol. i mean, the significance of the whole thing (basic strategy and counting w/indices and how one should bet) it's like an illlusion to our normal ways of thinking. same way with how the dealer can continuously (almost lol) slaughter us all on the table. it defies logic, even almost and unless you understand the math and effect of rules and effect of improper play all has on the overall results found in the game. i guess it is that our normal way of thinking and understanding tends toward results now and not towards results maybe some day lol. things like the fact that most of the hands you win on arent't what really makes you the money but actually it's the double downs and blackjacks where the money is made compared to the rest of the hands where basic strategy just really slows the rate for which we lose money lol. that all being said and say we do every thing right let us not overlook the fact that there is going to be some risk of ruin associated with our play even then.
so i guess i have all that looming in the back of my mind when i think about comments like what ihate17 made about the A,17 hand and how where you can play it right and then lose to the dealer's 20 more or less just as if you'd had a stiff hand to begin with lol.
i guess i'm just ranting but all that stuff about the game seems significant to me somehow.

 

[ihate17]

Guess I do not understand

And, even after you are dealt an A,7, you might only be able to double 1 of 5 times, if that it was you meant by frequent.

And I doubt you even get an A,7 4 times in 1000 hands.

You'd think he might have better things to worry about than nonsense such as this lol.

With a normal distribution of cards and basic strategy, you will be doubling A,7 vs 3-6 or 4 out of 13 times, which is much more than 1 of 5.

You should get A,7,4 once every 13 hands and not once in 1000.

Sounds to me like your decks have only one 4 per 20 decks???

ihate17

 

[Canceler]

Misreading, misunderstanding, late-night posting -- confusion reigns! :joker:

 

[k_c]

A-7 is a winning hand

A-7 is a winning hand overall versus all up cards.

6 decks S17
A-7 vs all up cards
Player can double A-7, EV = +3.4254%
Player can't double A-7, EV = +1.1025%

6 decks H17
A-7 vs all up cards
Player can double A-7, EV = +2.7803%
Player can't double A-7, EV = +0.0851%

Source: my total dependent CA program

Edit: A-7 vs A S17 should only stand if single deck. I was using strategy of stand for any number of decks. New EVs 6 decks S17 A-7 vs all up cards:

Player can double A-7, EV = +3.4507%
Player can't double A-7, EV = +1.1277%

No big deal except in the interest of being correct.

k_c

 

[ihate17]

But it is a loser against

A-7 is a winning hand overall versus all up cards.

6 decks S17
A-7 vs all up cards
Player can double A-7, EV = +3.4254%
Player can't double A-7, EV = +1.1025%

6 decks H17
A-7 vs all up cards
Player can double A-7, EV = +2.7803%
Player can't double A-7, EV = +0.0851%

Source: my total dependent CA program

k_c

A,7 is a loser against a dealer up card 9,10 or Ace, and that is why basic says to hit it.

ihate17

 

[k_c]

A,7 is a loser against a dealer up card 9,10 or Ace, and that is why basic says to hit it.

ihate17

Right.

k_c

 

[Kasi]

With a normal distribution of cards and basic strategy, you will be doubling A,7 vs 3-6 or 4 out of 13 times, which is much more than 1 of 5.

You should get A,7,4 once every 13 hands and not once in 1000.

Sounds to me like your decks have only one 4 per 20 decks???

ihate17

Well, to your first point, I was looking at some frequency table and adding numbers up in my head. Like you say, probably not a good idea lol.

On the other hand, all we know for sure is it can't be 4 out of 13 times because 2 cards are already gone and a dealer card of 7 and Ace won't happen as often as the other cards. And, if you want to assume playable hands, as opposed to all dealt hands, because sometimes the dealer will BJ with a 10 or Ace when you have that A,7, I think it'll actually be more than 4 out of 13 that you will be able to double!

So, me bad.

And thanks for pointing that out. How was I to know anyone actually pays attention to my drivel

For the A,7 4 times thing I meant a player will only be dealt an A,7 vs a dealer upcard of either a 3,4,5, or 6 less than 4 times in a 1000 playable hands.

So you don't even see the hand very often. I think that's probably about right. But I certainly wasn't very clear about it lol.

And, standing on A,7,8 vs dealer 10 is good BS.

So, maybe 2 out of 3 ain't bad!

 

[Kasi]

Yes, wouldn't it be nice if we all we had to do is "try harder" to win, or, in some way, play as if somehow it's a only a matter of will.

The truth is we are utterly helpless against Lady Luck.

And as far as perhaps our "normal way of thinking" goes as human beings believing we should somehow currently be having better results than we are, because, after all, we're playing flawlessly, etc, I can tell you, back when I could accurately keep track of such things, exactly how it feels. After 1 stan dev of bad luck it's pretty depressing. At 1.5 D, you're pretty convinced something is wrong somewhere. At 2, it can't be happening to you and you know in your heart the bastards are cheating you but you don't know exactly how. At -3 SD, especially after 7000 hands, there ain't no way in hell it's a fair game and you can prove it.

Of course when you are 2+ SD's ahead in a session, no big deal, we stroke our egos that that's what's supposed to happen because we are, after all, playing perfectly as if we had something to do with it lol.