Ace predicition question

zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Lately, I have been enjoying some limited success using Ace prediction at 1-2D games. My question is: How negative can the deck be before it negates the value of the Ace prediction? I feel uncomfortable throwing 2 big bets out to catch an Ace that is traveling in -10 territory. zg
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
Depends on how accurate your ace prediction is

In terms of getting an ace-face blackjack, it's going to be where the increased probability of getting an ace and the decreased probability of getting a 10 balance out. So if it's the kind of ace prediction I do where you only get about double the chance of getting an ace as normal, with two Tens per deck gone the probability of getting ace-face is down to normal. And the probability of face-ace is now half of normal. If your prediction accuracy is better the effect is smaller. But if it's a D9 game the value of the Ace without a Ten is going to go down even further. Interesting study.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Lets start like this -

Lets start like this -

If the value of the Ace is 50% edge, houw much has it fallen at hiLo -5? zg
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
Maybe....

I don't have the time to answer this sort of question. It is not easy. It may be suitable for bjmath or somewhere else that people are aching to do the research. For me, it is a subtle and difficult question, that would take too much time/effort to answer.

For single deck...

You will typically get (at least) one ace with probability 4/52 + (48/52)*4/51 = .1492. That is, you should expect an ace once every 6.7 hands.

My gutcheck reaction is that if you have a 20% improvement in this number (that is, a probabilty of .1790 or higher, or a 1 in 5.58 chance) of getting an ace, then make the max bet, regardless of the count. This is not based on any analysis, just instinct, which is really all I have time for right now, sorry.

--Mayor

[note. this post was edited and the math was fixed]
 
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