Advice for first-time counter

[shogun]

I’ve been lurking on this site for about 10 months now, and this is my first post aside from a few in the ‘online’ section. There’s a ton of good people and info here. A little background on me: I went to Vegas for the first time last year without much of a clue how to play blackjack, but that’s all I ended up playing. A dealer helped me out (I later found out most of his advice was actually good). I ended up losing $80 over 5 days which could have been a lot worse. I read Bringing Down the House after I got back and decided to learn to count cards. I’ve learned BS, and I’ve been practicing on Casino Verite with KO Preferred. Now I’m preparing to go back to Vegas, this time as an AP.

I’m staying in a location with fairly easy access to the North Strip and Downtown, although I plan on making a trip or two down the strip. My main question at this point has to do with money. I’m taking a few thousand dollars, and will keep most of it locked up. How much would you recommend buying in for when I first sit down ($50 max bet)? How much would you recommend I carry while walking the streets and keeping my eyes open for places to play?

Last question: Is there anything you wish you had known the first time you counted in a casino?

 

[Mikeaber]

I can't give you much advice on the bankroll issue. Just don't flash large wads of money around in public places! I show only that which I'm willing to expose when I buy in at a table. I carry that in a money clip that also holds my plastic. It stays in my front pants pocket. If I'm carrying any more, I keep it in the other front pants pocket and never pull it out in Public places.

I can tell you that when evaluating a table for a prospective game, look first at the Blackjack payout (3:2, not 6:5) and THEN look at the Penetration! You've no idea how much impact poor pen has on your chances of winning! As there are many very experienced players who will help you here, most take something as obvious as the pen for granted thinking everyone should know how crucial it is. Well, I new it intellectually, but the impact didn't sink in until I experienced the unreliability of playing against poor pen! Look for better than 50% in single deck and look for better than 65% in double deck. With 6-deck games, look for one that only has no more than 1.5 decks cut off (75% or better). After the pen, then look at the other rules.

I usually try to keep my sessions short....1 hour or less but I do make exceptions and haven't incurred any disasterous results.

 

[zengrifter]

How much would you recommend buying in for when I first sit down ($50 max bet)?

Onlybuy in for $100 at a time, that way if you lose, the addt'l buy-ins look like you are chasing losses compulsively. Keep your sessions under 90 min and do not win or lose more than 40u per session. Next thing you should be clear on is where to play... and the LLadies side bet. zg

 

[shogun]

Thanks for the replies. I have read a lot about the effects of penetration, most of it on this site. I'll make sure I look at that before jumping into a game. And the 6:5 blackjack payout struck me as a bad rule last year when I knew next to nothing about blackjack. I'm also taking a copy of the Snyder Profit Index to help evaluate games.

ZG, I was going to ask about places to play, but then I saw another thread that that answered it: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2017. If there are any in particular you think I should visit let me know. I thought about Lucky Ladies, but I wasn't sure about the index for KO and amount to bet. Where was that bet, the Vegas Club? Plaza? I'm also going with friends, but they don't count. If I could use them to count for a side bet, or some type team play that would be awesome, if anyone has any ideas. Sorry none are chicks, so we can't go that route. Well I guess we could, but I think I need to get the hang of counting before we throw in the crazy act.

 

[zengrifter]

I thought about Lucky Ladies, but I wasn't sure about the index for KO and amount to bet. Where was that bet, the Vegas Club?

I need some help on that - ANYONE: What is the KO 2D equivalent to HiLo +5 TC? KO 6D equivalent to HiLo +5 TC? (I think they'd be the same) - Whatever that KO# is ('X') bet $10 on LL, then at X+1 bet 15 and X+2 bet $25 - try to have two hands going at those counts so you can bet it on both hands.

There are three decent places to play 2D LL: Boulder Station, Terribles (6D also), Slots'Fun. As for the other places for low stakes with acceptable pene:

Downtown:
El Cortez 1-2 deck
Vegas Club 2 deck
Gold Spike 2 deck
Plaza 2 deck
Western 2 deck
4Queen 1D (grave only)

Elsewhere:
Terribles 2D
Slots'Fun 2D
Red Rock Sta. 2D
Palace Sta. 2D
Suncoast 2 deck
Boulder Sta. 2 deck

You are unlikely to find decent games by chance, unless its a flashing dealer, elsewhere. So if your friends are having too much fun to follow you to these places you are better off going it alone, otherwise you'll blow your window. zg

 

[koolipto]

KO Question

What is the KO 2D equivalent to HiLo +5 TC? KO 6D equivalent to HiLo +5 TC?

ZG-The best way to answer your question correctly is to True Count KO. But you can fudge simply by noting that the answer would be slightly higher than pivot (exactly how much depending on where you are in the shoe). The exact answer is slightly cumbersome at the table (but doable): Pivot plus 1 for every deck remaining. Example1: 6D; IRC=0; Pivot=24. At 4D dealt (2D remain), TC=+5 is at the RC of 26. Example2: 2D; IRC=0; Pivot=8. At 1D dealt (1D remain), TC=+5 is at the RC of 9.

 

[Mikeaber]

Koolipto does like a lot of folks and starts all IRC at 0. If you start with the recommended negative count then the Pivot Point of +4 no matter how many decks are in the shoe is the magic number to calculate the LL number. It would be +7 for the LL bet if there are 2 decks left to be played in a 6 deck game. It would be +5 for Double Deck that has one deck left to be played. Those are for ZG's starting ramp. If there is one deck left to be played in a DD game and the count climbed to +6, then you would bet 2-units on the LL side bet.

 

[shogun]

ZG-The best way to answer your question correctly is to True Count KO. But you can fudge simply by noting that the answer would be slightly higher than pivot (exactly how much depending on where you are in the shoe). The exact answer is slightly cumbersome at the table (but doable): Pivot plus 1 for every deck remaining. Example1: 6D; IRC=0; Pivot=24. At 4D dealt (2D remain), TC=+5 is at the RC of 26. Example2: 2D; IRC=0; Pivot=8. At 1D dealt (1D remain), TC=+5 is at the RC of 9.

That seems simple enough-thanks koolipto and mikeabear. I have adjusted my IRC (and pivot and key) so I don't have to work with negative numbers. It just seems easier that way.

I plan on hitting most of the casinos listed here, but I won't have a car so there are a few I won't be visiting (unless someone thinks renting a car would be worth it).

If there's anything anyone wants to add such as do's/don'ts so I'm not flagged as a counter, please share. I know they don't give as much attention to red chip bettors, but I'm still new to the casino environment and know I'll be nervous and maybe paranoid.

 

[Mikeaber]

As a programmer who has worked negative numbers for all of my long and not so illustrious career, it would be strange for me not to work with negatives. After all, when you subtract one number from another, you are simply adding a negative number to one that is positive.

 

[TENNBEAR]

A little more advice

For a first time counter, try backcounting a few shoes before you set down and start playing. This will get you used to counting in the casino enviroment and will increase your confidence that your counting accuratly. I still backcount as a warm-up exersize before I start playing upon my arrival at the casino.

 

[shogun]

Whatever that KO# is ('X') bet $10 on LL, then at X+1 bet 15 and X+2 bet $25 - try to have two hands going at those counts so you can bet it on both hands.

ZG, in this scenario:

playing 2D
Pivot=4
RC=7 with 1 deck remaining

Are you saying I should have 2 bets of $40 each plus the $25 LL bet on each hand? Just want to make sure I'm on the right page before I start overbetting.

For a first time counter, try backcounting a few shoes before you set down and start playing. This will get you used to counting in the casino enviroment and will increase your confidence that your counting accuratly. I still backcount as a warm-up exersize before I start playing upon my arrival at the casino.

I will definitely try that.

 

[zengrifter]

ZG, Are you saying I should have 2 bets of $40 each plus the $25 LL bet on each hand? Just want to make sure I'm on the right page before I start overbetting.

Yes... even IF your BR is only big enough for 2x$25 on the main bet, bet $25 on the two LLs (at that moment your edge is higher at the LLs than the main bet). zg

 

[koolipto]

If there's anything anyone wants to add such as do's/don'ts so I'm not flagged as a counter, please share. I know they don't give as much attention to red chip bettors, but I'm still new to the casino environment and know I'll be nervous and maybe paranoid.

Shogun, There is a very different "feel" to 2D and 6D. The count jumps around a lot more in 2D and is more exhilarating. I find 6D somewhat boring in comparison. Also, the slow drain in neutral to mildly negative counts in 6D is unpleasant. I have many times played a large number of 6D shoes in a row with no chance to raise a bet. You must wong out in 6D to preserve a descent advantage and preferably wong in as well. This is a separate skill set and more importantly discipline. OTOH, the count volatility in 2D also means more bankroll volatility. Your big swings (up and down) will come from a lot of large bet opportunities which are more frequent in 2D. All this is to say, that dealing with the emotions and the bankroll in these two situations is different.

A big don't from someone who has "sinned" way to many times is to camp at a table trying to recoup a loss position. I have gotten away with it many times at 6D at low stakes. But you expose your play way too much. I think at 2D, regardless of the stakes, it is a dangerous practice. Even if bet level keeps me under the radar screen, I often realize later that long camp out sessions have eroded my sharpness and my judgement. Generally, it is better to play short and forgo costly betting or playing camouflage.

Many will advise "don't tip". The math supports this. Personally, I still tip some as I am a recreational player and it helps my comfort level.

Finally, relax. You should look at this as a learning experience - not the ultimate test of you blackjack skills and personal worth. If you break even or lose only a modest amount, you are really a big winner - you got a lot of free/inexpensive education/experience.

Best Wishes, Koolipto

 

[zengrifter]

If there's anything anyone wants to add such as do's/don'ts so I'm not flagged as a counter, please share.

I say: you are an infrequent visitor, don't worry at all about being made - no cover, bet with the count, smile, have fun. If you get backed off somewhere your friends will get a kick out of it! Go for it.

BTW, the most outlying casinos on that list are Suncoast and Red Rock and they are fairly close to each other - about a $20 cab ride each way - Boulder Station about $15 each way. Use a players card whereever you play and the free meals will offset the cabfare... and after you get home you'll be inundated with free room offers. zg

 

[E-town-guy]

I’m taking a few thousand dollars, and will keep most of it locked up. How much would you recommend buying in for when I first sit down ($50 max bet)? How much would you recommend I carry while walking the streets and keeping my eyes open for places to play?

QUOTE]

If you plan on playing long sessions i.e. several casinos each one for 1-2hr I would recommend carrying $4-500. I assume though you'll be playing two hands at $50 for your max bet? If not maybe you'd only need $400. Only buy in for $100 either way.

 

[zengrifter]

If you plan on playing long sessions i.e. several casinos each one for 1-2hr I would recommend carrying $4-500. I assume though you'll be playing two hands at $50 for your max bet? If not maybe you'd only need $400. Only buy in for $100 either way.

I disagree - if he's only bringing a few thousand, and betting 2x50, just carry the whole amount at all times. zg

 

[jimbiggs]

I need some help on that - ANYONE: What is the KO 2D equivalent to HiLo +5 TC? KO 6D equivalent to HiLo +5 TC? (I think they'd be the same) - Whatever that KO# is ('X') bet $10 on LL, then at X+1 bet 15 and X+2 bet $25 - try to have two hands going at those counts so you can bet it on both hands.

ZG, I just want to be sure I'm understanding this. I thought that I had read in another thread that you shoud bet LL at a true count of +7 in HiLo. If I'm understanding your post correctly, you're saying to bet $10 at a true count of +5, $15 at a true count of +6, and $25 at a true count of +7 using HiLo. Did I get that right? And why was I confused about that other thread?

 

[zengrifter]

ZG, I just want to be sure I'm understanding this. I thought that I had read in another thread that you shoud bet LL at a true count of +7 in HiLo. If I'm understanding your post correctly, you're saying to bet $10 at a true count of +5, $15 at a true count of +6, and $25 at a true count of +7 using HiLo. Did I get that right? And why was I confused about that other thread?

Two possibilities: 1) The Panama Rick post/simulation that I posted was for an inferior version of LLs; 2) At +5 (with the good-version LLs) the advantage is only about .12% and not important for betting. zg