Also need help for the 8-8 split vs 10 plz

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Royam

Well-Known Member
Wong says to split 8-8 vs 10, if the count is 8 or lower. He does not say what to do if the count is higher. As the line above (9-9) is a split or STAND line and the line below (7-7) is a split or HIT line, I don't know from these explanations if I must stand or hit 8-8 vs 10 with a count higher than 9.

Humble/Cooper give more details and advise against splitting 8-8 vs 10 when the count exceeds 8, in order to avoid "turning a probable busting hand into two probable losing hands". I deduce from this that, when the count exceeds 8, Ishould hit 8-8 vs 10.

Is this correct?

Thanks for your advice,

Royam
 
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Abraham de Moivre

Well-Known Member
STAND

On any pair split hand, if the count is such to not split, then you play the hand like a hard total.

At +8 or more, you don't split 8,8 vs T.
So what do you do with 16 vs T at +8 count?

You stand on 16 vs T if the count is +0 or more, so you would certainly stand at +8, and hope the dealer busts.
 
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Royam

Well-Known Member
Thanks Abraham

I understand your reasoning and it makes sense, but...

The quote in my original post speaks of the 16 v T as a "probable busting hand", which means the author assume that he would hit.

I can somehow understand why hitting would be more profitable: with a 8+ count, the shoe is full of high cards: any of these (7,8,9,T, or A) will make you lose (against 17, 18, 19, 20, or 21).
- So if you stand, you are very likely to be beaten,
- While if you hit, you are likely to get one of these high cards, among which the A will nicely bring you to 17 total (others would not be great, I must admit); plus you still have a chance to get a small card that will not make you bust.

All in all, I can understand how hitting would be more profitable. I lack skill to back up this intuitive reasoning with maths though.

Royam
 
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Abraham de Moivre

Well-Known Member
It doesn't matter what you have.

The reasoning behind standing on 16 vs T in high counts:

It doesn't matter what you have, it is what the dealer has that counts!
If the dealer has a T showing, and the count is high, what is the most likely card he has in the hole? Probably another T, giving him 20.

So even if you do hit your 16 and get the Ace for 17, you still lose.
In fact, it is very likely hitting a 16 in a high count - you are going to bust - and then it doesn't matter what the dealer has. The only card that really helps you is the 5 - and how likely is a 5 in a high count?

So you are probably beat, don't bust and prove it. If the dealer doesn't have a ten in the hole, then he might have to hit and bust with the Ten. Your 16 wins if the dealers busts, if you haven't busted first.

Stand on 16 vs T in positive counts. Hit 16 vs T in negative counts, it is less likely the dealer has T in the hole, less likely you will bust and might improve your hand, and less likely the dealer busts if he has to hit.
 
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Ohio_Jones

Member
Cover+

you could always stand on any hard total of 16 for cover play. it is stated at a flat bet of $100 playing 100 hands/hr will result in a $2.65 loss/hr
~IA-BTTILV

of course at that high of a count you're sure to have your top spread bet out so standing on hard 16 including 8-8 is a profitable play.

like abraham posted earlier at that high of a count the dealer has a high probability of having a 20. what makes this work is when the dealer has a 2-6 in the hole and draws a bust card (hopefully not an ace if a 6 is in the hole).

IA-BTTILV
 
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john

Well-Known Member
more than that

Flat betting $100 dollars playing basic strategy ? If I understand you correctly, you would most certainly lose more than $2.65 an hour in a 6 deck game on average.

You'd lose about $45 an hour.
 
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deZerTomB

Active Member
It doesn't matter what you have.

play a few hundred thousand hands on your puter and you'll see.

practice, practice, practice.

learn all the indexes & try different spreads. I like to practice with the same table minimums and conditions(penetration)as what I play. I even tried 50% penetration like the indian casinos around here and proved to myself it's a COMPLETE waste of time and money. And it didn't take long. hehe.
 
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Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
That's

what they want all counters to think. Can you track? You may be able to get a good edge that way. Otherwise, stay home and become a Bonus Bandit!!

Eye eye yeye yeyeeeeee.....
I am a Bonus Bandito!!
 
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Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Risk Aversion

BS is proper play of each hand with no extra knowledge of which cards are left. If it is -4TC you will have your min bet out and the possibility of the dealer being stiff are better, split and hit. If it is +4TC 10's are thicker, so your chances of two hands of 18 vs the dealers 20 are better, and you have some serious cash out. The indice is +8 from what you have been told, and the closer to this number you get the less you will lose by playing this risk aversive play. Over a million hand sim it is clear which way to play this hand, no question.

Consult ZenGrifer's loosy goosy indice number treatise.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
It sure would

Yes HO2 players surrender 88 vs. X at +2. In fact I just did it this morning. Turned a $1300 losing session into merely losing $1200.

There are so many valuable surrender indexes for a HO2 player that I'm now very hesitant to play a shoe game that doesn't offer LSR, just like I never play a H17 shoe game without a really good reason.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
What he meant was...

That making the decision of always standing on hard 16 results in an additional loss of $2.65/hr over the Basic Strategy play.

I would modify this cover play by drawing hard 16 vs. A or 7, because these cards imply both a low chance of him busting and a decent chance of you winning if you catch a hand.
 
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