BlackjackJoe said:
You always have to assume he's got a 10 under that card back.
Joe,
This assumption confounds me whenever I hear a discussion about proper blackjack strategy.
Case in Point
: When regarding how to play 12 against a dealer's deuce up, typical players often say,
"Don't hit 12 against a 12". That assumption gets them into trouble right there.
Now if the dealer really did have 12, you certaiinly should not hit since she would in fact have a bad hand. But which is she more likely to have in the hole
; a 10,Jack, Queen, King -- or a 5, 6, 7, 8, 9???? There are four cards that will give her 12, but five cards that will give her 7 thru 11. She's more likely to have a decent drawing hand, than 12. As for having any of the other cards down (A, 2, 3, 4) these do not "pigeonhole" her hand very much.
Assuming the dealer has a 10 in the hole is exactly the same as assuming your next card will be a 10, or that every next card out of the shoe will be a 10. Now, where are all those 10's going to come from when 216 cards out of a 312 card shoe are some other kind of card???
If you still tend to rely on the "10 in the hole" theory, then take a good look at the blackjack layout felt where it says,
"Insurance pays 2-to-1". That means,
whenever the dealer has an Ace up, the house is willing to lay you 2-to-1 odds that she
doesn't have a 10 in the hole. Why do you suppose they're doing that??