Analyzing a 'no hole card' game

[Stealth Bomber]

Is the following statement correct:

In actual play at a full table, a possible 1/3rd of a deck may be dealt to the 1st 6 spots on the table including 3rd base having 2 cards and the D with 1. When the player at 3rd base finally has to make a play decision, the count should play a part in the decision process. The 3B player may be pondering a decision as the count changes during the round as play goes through the other players.

Also, is the dealers hole card considered in the decision process if the C increased or decreased considerably prior to the D actually receiving the hole card at the end?

 

[Tom]

It makes no difference what the game is because all decisions of card counting can only be based on dealers upcards,not the hole cards. The only way one could possibly benefit from the dealers whole card and make decision changes, is if they know exactly what the whole card is. It dont matter when a hole card is dealt.

The no hole card game(rules)is actually worse for a card counter,not better.

 

[Abraham de Moivre]

Think about this for a while:

Using your same logic, instead of a hole card, imagine it is the dealer's card that he is going to get when he hits. Your theory would make the Ploppies cry of "You stole the dealer's bust card!" and "Somebody has to take a hit for the table" theories hold some water. Think about it.

The reason third base has an advantage, is not because of when or where he gets his cards, but because he is effectively getting better consistent PENETRATION.

Both 1st and 3rd make their bets with the knowledge of X cards exposed. First base then plays his hand with (X + dealt) cards exposed. 3rd base gets to play his hand with (X + dealt + hit) cards exposed. 3rd base is always playing his hand with the # of hit cards deeper penetration.

Remember the deeper the PEN the more effective playing decisions become.

 

[Stealth Bomber]

The reason third base has an advantage, is not because of when or where he gets his cards, but because he is effectively getting better consistent PENETRATION

True, 3B gets better pen before having to make play decisions on any bj game.

RE: 'No Hole Card' game

Is there any issue for a counter on 3B (C or otherwise) to consider, given that the D gets the hole card after all players are done and the fact that the C may have changed considerably? Also, what if the D shows 10 or A; how is this handled?

 

[Stealth Bomber]

The no hole card game(rules)is actually worse for a card counter,not better.

What if the "rules" are the same?

 

[Rob McGarvey]

BJ21

same question on BJ21. I did enjoy Alienated's reply. Very similar to the one I almost posted yesterday but thought better of it.

 

[Tom]

It makes no difference.

 

[Feep]

No. I understand why you say this, but the hold card is just a card you haven't seen until after you make your decision.

Imagine it this way:

An arbitary number of cards will be dealt during the hand prior to all players completing their decision (including 3B). Let's call this number X.

After the first round in a no-hole-card game a little imp takes the card which would have been the hole card and places it at position X+1. This little imp is omniscient and knows exactly how many cards the players will use, so he always knows what X is. Why an omniscient imp wastes his time doing this we will never know. Little bastard.

This imp's first name is Random. His last name is Shuffle. His middle name is Godamned but that's only when you're on a losing streak.

It wouldn't matter if the dealer took the hole card off the bottom (barring cheating), randomly selected it from the middle, pulled it from a separate stack of hole cards he dealt in a little pile before the 1st round, or even took it sometime between 1B and 3B playing.

Feep

 

[Inskipp]

A different way to think of it, if this is helpful. There is a certain count when you make your betting decision. Then you see some cards, and the count changes.

Regardless of when the dealer takes the hole card, the count may be different than it was when you were betting. But the count is as likely to be better as it is to be worse at the hole card moment, whenever that moment is. So in the long run, how could it matter?

 

[Stealth Bomber]

My brain still fry's on this.

OK, let's say you are the AP at 3B and there are say 4 other players on the table; one round of cards has already gone by which happened to eat up 25% of the deck; now the TC is at zero; you place your bet, the cards come face down to all and you get a 3/5, D shows 4; the players play their hands and when it's your turn to make your play decision, the TC is now 6. Doesn't this make you feel more comfy to know that your card and the D's hole card will be dealt from an at least +5 pack (assuming Hi/Lo C)? Therefore, the mathematically correct play is to double.