Another Auditor needed

[Katweezel]

Recent Government audited figures show some interesting figures for the November 'win' by AC casinos. (I hope there is an auditor here reading this that can help!)

I'm focusing solely on Blackjack; the AC Casinos show a huge "Win %" margin of between 19.7% (Trump Marina) and 9.6% (Borgata); with the average probably around 13 or 14%. This seems way too high to me, seeing as Blackjack is supposed to be the game with the lowest HE.

Now as far as I know, (correct me if I'm wrong) the HE on BJ is 7.95% because the dealer goes last. Deduct BJ @ 3:2 and provision for doubles and splits, and the figure goes close to 0.5% negative, for the perfect BS player.

Let me guess that lots of blackjack ...errr, players, are clueless and hand the casino an immediate, say, uh, 4% for silly play. Where on earth does the rest come from to give the casinos these massive earnings on BJ? Now dare I say this - with my limited understanding of these figures - but could some % be coming from losing ... card counters?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Recent Government audited figures show some interesting figures for the November 'win' by AC casinos. (I hope there is an auditor here reading this that can help!)

I'm focusing solely on Blackjack; the AC Casinos show a huge "Win %" margin of between 19.7% (Trump Marina) and 9.6% (Borgata); with the average probably around 13 or 14%. This seems way too high to me, seeing as Blackjack is supposed to be the game with the lowest HE.

Now as far as I know, (correct me if I'm wrong) the HE on BJ is 7.95% because the dealer goes last. Deduct BJ @ 3:2 and provision for doubles and splits, and the figure goes close to 0.5% negative, for the perfect BS player.

Let me guess that lots of blackjack ...errr, players, are clueless and hand the casino an immediate, say, uh, 4% for silly play. Where on earth does the rest come from to give the casinos these massive earnings on BJ? Now dare I say this - with my limited understanding of these figures - but could some % be coming from losing ... card counters?

You're misconstruing the numbers. Let's say a perfect basic strategy player sits down at a table with a 0.5% HE and buys in for $1K. He gives them $1K in action and he will lose on the average $5. He gives them another $1K in action and he has now lost $10. He gives them $50K total action and he has lost $250, and the casino would describe this play as 25% hold.

Note that this has no more to do with the HE of the game and the skill of the player than the amount of time the player is willing to spend at the table. In the older days casinos were willing to deal BJ with a 0.18% HE to high rollers who would in turn be willing to spend 12 out of every 24 hours of their junket at the table, and they would keep him there and coming back with good service and an accommodating atmosphere. The casino made plenty of money and the gambler usually got what he was looking for.

In modern casinos they provide the cheapest crap they can get away with, they market to the lower class and the clueless and most people are in that casino just out of curiosity, so they deal carnival games with 2-5% HE, clean people out and send them home with little concern if they come back, and they're all crying poor.

 

[Katweezel]

Figures to figure

You're misconstruing the numbers. Let's say a perfect basic strategy player sits down at a table with a 0.5% HE and buys in for $1K. He gives them $1K in action and he will lose on the average $5. He gives them another $1K in action and he has now lost $10. He gives them $50K total action and he has lost $250, and the casino would describe this play as 25% hold.

Note that this has no more to do with the HE of the game and the skill of the player than the amount of time the player is willing to spend at the table. In the older days casinos were willing to deal BJ with a 0.18% HE to high rollers who would in turn be willing to spend 12 out of every 24 hours of their junket at the table, and they would keep him there and coming back with good service and an accommodating atmosphere. The casino made plenty of money and the gambler usually got what he was looking for.

In modern casinos they provide the cheapest crap they can get away with, they market to the lower class and the clueless and most people are in that casino just out of curiosity, so they deal carnival games with 2-5% HE, clean people out and send them home with little concern if they come back, and they're all crying poor.

Yeah, right, I screwed up my understanding of those figures all right Monkey, so I'll put the $ "Win" here for each AC casino for BJ for the month of November, 08. (From the website (Dead link: http://www.njccc.gov/casinos/financia/mthrev/docs2008))

$ Win W%
AC Hilton 1,448,899 11.3
Ballys 3,877,961 11.5
Borgata 7,530,546 9.6
Caesars 8,014,083 16.3
Harrah's Resort 2,840,675 13.3
Resorts AC 1,824,080 16.7
Showboat 1,635,933 16.0
Tropicana 2,573,455 13.7
Trump Marina 1,893,205 19.6
Trump Plaza 1,888,399 10.3
Trump Taj Mahal 3,816,682 9.8

Now that adds up to more than $36M that Blackjack players lost, just for the month of November, at 11 AC casinos. And that was only for one game. I wonder what would explain the big differences in those % figures?

What a disgraceful indictment these figures are for AC Blackjack 'players'! They are losing at the rate of more than $1M a day... Luckily, nobody from this site lost one red cent... In fact, you won, right?

Hey Monkey, casinos are crying poor? You are kidding! They 'only won' $36M from BJ for one month, in one city, from one game, the poor things! I wonder how much they "SHOULD" have won.:cat:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Yeah, right, I screwed up my understanding of those figures all right Monkey, so I'll put the $ "Win" here for each AC casino for BJ for the month of November, 08. (From the website (Dead link: http://www.njccc.gov/casinos/financia/mthrev/docs2008))

$ Win W%
AC Hilton 1,448,899 11.3
Ballys 3,877,961 11.5
Borgata 7,530,546 9.6
Caesars 8,014,083 16.3
Harrah's Resort 2,840,675 13.3
Resorts AC 1,824,080 16.7
Showboat 1,635,933 16.0
Tropicana 2,573,455 13.7
Trump Marina 1,893,205 19.6
Trump Plaza 1,888,399 10.3
Trump Taj Mahal 3,816,682 9.8

Now that adds up to more than $36M that Blackjack players lost, just for the month of November, at 11 AC casinos. And that was only for one game. I wonder what would explain the big differences in those % figures?

What a disgraceful indictment these figures are for AC Blackjack 'players'! They are losing at the rate of more than $1M a day... Luckily, nobody from this site lost one red cent... In fact, you won, right?

Hey Monkey, casinos are crying poor? You are kidding! They 'only won' $36M from BJ for one month, in one city, from one game, the poor things! I wonder how much they "SHOULD" have won.:cat:

Well you're right, the AC blackjack players in general aren't very good but neither are they very good in any other venue.

The numbers you see have very little to do with the skill of any players. It's more a function of the number of players, the size of their action and the amount of time they spend at the table. AP's are very rare and most unskilled players come to the table with an amount of money they plan on losing and they lose it. I was in AC last week, it was very crowded and aside from people I already knew I did not see even one AP.

I've had some great sessions in AC and some horrible ones. Last week was a mix of both but I drove out of the city with a little more than I drove in with. But I didn't play that much blackjack.

 

[Kasi]

What a disgraceful indictment these figures are for AC Blackjack 'players'! They are losing at the rate of more than $1M a day...They 'only won' $36M from BJ for one month, in one city, from one game, the poor things! I wonder how much they "SHOULD" have won.:cat:

Unfortunately, I don't think you can conclude a dam* thing from the figures lol.

Like AM said, it's just an estimate in the first place based on chips bought vs chips paid out of the dealer rack.

It could be every single player played perfect BS for the whole month or it could be otherwise. It could be the casino "should" have won more or "should" have won less.

It's not like they have the slightest clue of how many rounds were played and how much money was wagered.

Now, internet casinos actually know stuff like that and can give accurate figures on how many $'s were paid out vs how many $'s wagered. Usually it would be around 98-99% as one might perhaps expect. Sometimes it was over 100% lol. Often it was lumped under "table games" and you still really didn't know jack anyway lol.