Sonny
Well-Known Member
I thought I would start a new thread for this question since many of you probably have some experience with progression systems.ThunderWalk said:With so many so vehemently opposed to the act of doubling up after a loss, or any "progressive" system, I have to wonder if there's anyone here who has actually had any experience trying that method. Is all the bad stuff just theory or hearsay, or have you, or someone you know ever lost your shirt trying to make that method work?
I guess I’ll go first (this feels like a support group :laugh
Hi, my name is Sonny and I’ve used a progression system. I started playing BJ online in 1999. I had been counting cards for several years and knew that progression systems were useless, but they were fun and they burned through the wagering requirements much quicker. I came up with a conservative progression system that would only fail after losing 12 consecutive hands. You’ll never guess what happened next…
Yup, I lost twelve consecutive hands right away. I kept thinking that I would quit as soon as I dug myself out of the first hole that I made and broke even, but then other streaks kept coming. I had several more twelve-hand (or more!) losing streaks at different online casinos. Luckily I was playing exclusively with bonus money and never lost any of my own. However, after blowing through several juicy $200 and $100 bonuses I called it quits. I’m lucky that it only cost me EV, not actual money.
The biggest lesson that I learned is this: “Just because something is unlikely doesn’t mean that it won’t happen right away.” Just because you have a 1-in-50 chance of going broke doesn’t mean that it will take 50 tries to hit that losing streak or that you will be safe for the first 49 attempts. That catastrophic event might be the very first thing that happens, or maybe the second thing. The longer you play, the luckier you are that you haven’t hit that losing streak and the closer you come to hitting it.
-Sonny-