Back Counting Only Strategy In Unique Conditions.

[SupaStud]

I have been lurking these forums for some time now, and finally I feel like I need to ask the community for help and feedback based on a playing situation that has arisen.

In the area I'm located I believe it is 100% possible to back count, and only bet the most favorable shoes, for a VERY long time before being barred. Obviously this strategy would be suicide in most places, but here's some background.

The casino is the first in the state to spread blackjack, and is currently the only game in town. Most of the pit crits are completely green. Also, there is a TON of money in this area. I've never seen anything like it, but on the weekends, you might be lucky to find 4 tables with 25 min betting, and they're all constant shufflers. Some 50 mins would be strewn about, but there is a HUGE number of 100 Min tables, that all tend to have 3-4 players seated. $1000 bets or $10000 winning sessions are NOT going to attract any attention.

The games are 8 deck, S17, and Double after split on any totals. Penetration is regulated by a slot in the shoe, and I'd say is about 1.5 decks deep.

A couple of us have been haphazardly back counting using RPC, and placing bets when we find the good shoes. There's three of us who are flawless in our counts and index plays. We have shown some wins, but we just made the decision to hunker down, and get a real team situation started. You know, Play Blackjack Like a Business! Here's where we are...

We've pulled together about $40k. Though some recent poker success from one of the members might up that to something like 60, but we'll just assume $40k is what we're working with. Currently 3 members...

So for the seasoned pros out there: what's the plan of attack? Do what we're doing? How much can we bet with a relatively small risk of ruin knowing we're ONLY playing the best of situations, and even then only a few hands before we get up and move on to the next. Should we play two hands if possible when we get in there?

Also, is there anyone on the forum that thinks it's possible to back count two tables at once with a high degree of accuracy, or is that margin for error going to be too high (in which case maybe expanding the team is in order). I've got a "system" but I can't seem to be accurate enough to implement it. (It involves trying to anchor the different counts to different physical movements to make them easier to keep apart).

Is RPC the right count for this situation?? We're good enough to quickly learn another system if our choice is seriously flawed.

Well, I guess I asked enough questions! Any insights would be great!

 

[EasyRhino]

Desired risk of ruin would depend on the risk aversion of the team with the bankroll. Is this rent money? What will you do if the team loses half of it? And you can get that from CVCX online or running a sim. But you could plunk down $500 in high counts (or 2x $300/$350) and have a... fairly standardly lowish ROR.

It does indeed sound like backcounting is the way to go at this particular place, the table minimums are just usually too high. Some people can backcount two tables. I'm not one of them. But not that you often don't need to backcount two tables for the entire shoe, you can often "abandon" one of them if the count gets hopeless, similar to the decision to abandon a shoe and walk to a different table.

Also, just keep it in mind, you guys have a big enough BR to support some travel. If you want to really get some serious # of hands in, that's going to work better than only playing at one store.

 

[SupaStud]

This definitely isn't the rent money!

I guess by that fashion we could tolerate a higher ROR, but certainly we're smart gamblers (poker players by profession) and aren't going to try and "take a shot" unless we're sure it's a safeish bet.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

All right! Looks like you've got a great opportunity and a great plan going.

First of all, RPC is an excellent choice for this kind of game, possibly the best. Here's a modern variant of RPC I wrote and use myself: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/Ben-Franklin-Count.pdf

There should be some useful reference information for you and your team in there.

With 3 of you playing independently, you should be able to play a $100-$500 backcounting game with a reasonably low RoR under these conditions. 8D is great for backcounting because you're not sitting down as often but you are sitting down for longer periods when you do get a good count. Play 2 hands if possible, with a total of 1.4 times your bet if you had one hand. And do not walk away from a good count under any circumstances.

If backcounting you might want to invest in Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack, because it identifies proper entry and exit points. When backcounting a shoe, there is a point (based on rules, number of decks and pen) where you walk away from a shoe and start backcounting another even if you are at a neutral count, and that point is sooner than you might think. The autoshufflers will help you. And don't be afraid to walk into a shoe that has already started; if you see a few hands have been dealt out and there is a raft of low cards on the table, it is worth playing as long as you realize you have to treat the unseen cards as if they were behind the cut card.

 

[callipygian]

what's the plan of attack?

Don't burn out the game. You can fleece a sheep many times, but only slaughter it once.

is there anyone on the forum that thinks it's possible to back count two tables at once with a high degree of accuracy

Yes. Usually one table becomes more interesting than the other, and you drop the low count table. Very rarely do you get two tables that are both worth watching for an appreciable amount of time. More often than not, neither table is interesting and you move to another two.