Back to the Lions Den...

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Appreciated all the good responses to my: "Worst cards" thread. A topic related to the large loss I took last Saturday night.

So carefully analyzed what I did wrong the last outing. Certainly bad luck played a role. Or misfortune, law of averages turning south for a short bend whatever you want to call it. However much of what caused that nightly slump was simply bad play. I vowed to stick to my game plan and went back to the very same place just today.

It's a good house and suits my lower budget well: Good penetration low minimum buy in. Decided that no matter what I was NOT going to force things ie: No higher than normal bets in only slightly positive situations. Played the five dollar min until the running count grew significantly. Then calculated the TC and moved up the scale appropriately.

The deck got very hot. Didn't even bother figuring the TC as the running count was averaging twenty 2/3rds of the way through the deck. I bet sixty, doubled, won. Bet sixty again and got nines, split against dealers low card, doubled one and won both. Chips piling up...

My favorite play, next to splitting aces and getting 21 twice (or more) is realizing when to NOT hit that sixteen. Like in a high count. I stay on 16 and three other stiff hands while dealer busts.

Tip dealer next shoe: Same things. I'm up five hundred and overcome last Saturday evening's fiasco. I stay one more shoe and flat bet but probably should have split the joint and gone home. The flat bets dwindle me a tad (very little) as this deck stays neutral all the way through. This was my only only negative self critique of today's play. Whereas last Saturday I was screwing up all over the place.

After an hour and a half I've made a comfortable profit, better than a day's pay and then some. Decided I was "out of balls" and through for the day. Good decision.

"Wham bamm thank you mamm!".

Sticking to my game plan was the key. Neither over betting or missing good opportunities. And then i quit soon after realizing my nerves and perseverance were cooked.

And what if the first deck hadn't been hot? Well would have simply flat bet and enjoyed the babes bringing drinks. I promise never to let any mood draw me away from a solid game plan again.

No camouflage, over betting to look like a gambler or trying to win back losses for the sake of winning back money when the system requires lower bets and patience.

 

[mdlbj]

Do the true count conversions. Or you will still see the major fluctuations in your bankroll. Your getting there brother.

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Do the true count conversions. Or you will still see the major fluctuations in your bankroll. Your getting there brother.

I've thought about that a good deal and yet have relied mostly only on intuition based upon the running count so far. Not usually a specific and exact conversion to TC. Reasoning? Am a musician for many years and can carry a lot of unexplainable knowledge in my head all at once. Without bothering to take things down to the decimal point that is. Subliminal training. And it hasn't been that far off the mark even when i take the time to compare my betting level to the TC.

Just seems simpler. Like throwing darts after a lot of practice.

 

[mdlbj]

------> Do the true count conversions. Or you will still see the major fluctuations in your bankroll. <--------- :whip:

 

[zengrifter]

I've thought about that a good deal and yet have relied mostly only on intuition based upon the running count so far. Not usually a specific and exact conversion to TC. Reasoning? Am a musician for many years and can carry a lot of unexplainable knowledge in my head all at once. Without bothering to take things down to the decimal point that is. Subliminal training. And it hasn't been that far off the mark even when i take the time to compare my betting level to the TC.

Just seems simpler. Like throwing darts after a lot of practice.

Switch to an unbl'd count. zg

 

[aslan]

------> Do the true count conversions. Or you will still see the major fluctuations in your bankroll. <--------- :whip:

I use KO. Would your advice go for KO as well? I visited a KO to TC chart and came up with the following:

KO, 6-deck, IRC of -20

set key count at -8, -6, -4, and -1 for 1, 2, 3, and 4 decks dealt
set pivot point at +9, +8, +7, and +6 for 1, 2, 3, and 4 decks dealt

Will it make that much difference? Normally KO sets key count at -4 and pivot point at +4.

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

How long will an unbalanced count take to learn? Have become very confident of the hi/lo and can even shoot the breeze with the players and dealer. Most of the time that is.

Also one more question: In high low (where i often play) we don't know what the one first burn card is. Should I count this as a negative just to be on the safe side? So far have just disregarded the unknown and started at zero. It's a six deck shoe so i guess it shouldn't matter. Especially if I'm more or less dead reckoning the TC from intuitive estimates.

 

[EasyRhino]

Count unseen cards as neutral. They could have even played a hand or two, and you could still start counting the shoe from zero (it would hurt your effective penetration though).

One note about overbetting to look like a gambler... the casino doesn't know how much money you have. You've got some guys overbetting when they place their first $20 bet, and others who aren't breaking a sweat at $500. Overbetting and steaming is all relative, even to the casino.

 

[moo321]

How long will an unbalanced count take to learn? Have become very confident of the hi/lo and can even shoot the breeze with the players and dealer. Most of the time that is.

Also one more question: In high low (where i often play) we don't know what the one first burn card is. Should I count this as a negative just to be on the safe side? So far have just disregarded the unknown and started at zero. It's a six deck shoe so i guess it shouldn't matter. Especially if I'm more or less dead reckoning the TC from intuitive estimates.

You could start counting red sevens as +1 and you're playing the Red Seven unbalanced count. No true counts.

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Count unseen cards as neutral. They could have even played a hand or two, and you could still start counting the shoe from zero (it would hurt your effective penetration though).

One note about overbetting to look like a gambler... the casino doesn't know how much money you have. You've got some guys overbetting when they place their first $20 bet, and others who aren't breaking a sweat at $500. Overbetting and steaming is all relative, even to the casino.

Noted.

All this stuff starts to make more sense the more it works in the casino. Prior to that it is just theory.

Some places, perhaps like Cache Creek, seem to burn a fair number of cards. Or I could be mistaken and am confused for another place. Maybe CC only burns one.

The Oaks Card Club burns at least six cards which is a total waste. That joint is the worst place I've ever seen. Even money on a natural, a one dollar fee per hand and eight decks w/wild card jokers. I mean, like why the hell bother burning so many cards when the odds are so badly stacked against the player to begin with? I will never play that pig sty again. Although i did get four aces there once. You can split and double as many times, but the game over all is a joke. Worse still you can never find a seat.

Which won't be necessary for me any more. I won't even go there for the bratwurst...

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Noted.

All this stuff starts to make more sense the more it works in the casino. Prior to that it is just theory.

Some places, perhaps like Cache Creek, seem to burn a fair number of cards. Or I could be mistaken and am confused for another place. Maybe CC only burns one.

The Oaks Card Club burns at least six cards which is a total waste. That joint is the worst place I've ever seen. Even money on a natural, a one dollar fee per hand and eight decks w/wild card jokers. I mean, like why the hell bother burning so many cards when the odds are so badly stacked against the player to begin with? I will never play that pig sty again. Although i did get four aces there once. You can split and double as many times, but the game over all is a joke. Worse still you can never find a seat.

Which won't be necessary for me any more. I won't even go there for the bratwurst...

that game is not blackjack, it is a variation.. if you look at the sign or the table, it will not be called blackjack, or at least it shouldnt.. how many jokers, 8 or 16? if there are 16 jokers, it would be interesting to see the +% added by the jokers, as the game without the jokers is probably -2% at best.. it also depends on how much you bet, because if your betting $10, then the house edge is already 10% due to the $1/hand fee