backcounting doesnt earn you comps, so what i do, is i sit down at the table, buy in for a few hundred, and sit there until it goes positive, then i wong out when the count hits zero, and i sit there until it goes positive.. but to answer your question, it depends what you are doing, when do you decide to jump in? +1? +2? do you play out the rest of the shoe? if you only play when the count is positive, you will have an advantage, even if you dont use indexes or spread, since most of your hands will be at like +1 or +2 tc, since your not playing if it hits zero.. if the running count is +1, then your at a disadvantage, but remember, average that out with all the positive counts and it will average out greater than +1 tcmjbballar23 said:
That's a good plan. If the TC is still negative after 2-3 decks then you probably aren't going to get much out of it. You are better off finding a fresh shoe to watch. This will also help you to play more hands per hour since you are abandoning "hopeless" shoes and counting more positive/neutral ones.mjbballar23 said:
i always wonder when i should stop counting.. it would be sweet if there was a chart that showed when to stop counting.. for instance it would say "at these points, there is a 90% chance that the shoe will never go positive again" -17 with 5 decks left, -15 with 4 decks left, -12 with 3 decks left, etc..Sonny said:
[/QUOTE]mdlbj said:
It's my understanding that it's best to stop backcounting when the true count gets to -1, regardless of how many decks have been dealt. If the running count gets to -6 or worse at the beginning of the shoe, it's not very likely to get to +6 (or whatever point it needs to get to to wong in) anytime soon, and it's best to find another table where the dealer just shuffled. Late in a shoe (say, 3 decks left and a running count of -3) you stand a better chance of getting to the wong in point, but you're not likely to get very many hands before the shuffle. You'd like to jump in as early in the shoe as possible, and then get several hands with the advantage.mjbballar23 said:
This is also where you can start practicing backcounting two tables at a time. I've had some success with this, it especially works great when two are shuffling up at about the same time. you can stop counting the table with the lower count after 1 or 2 decks.Sonny said:
Sonny said:
sonny, ask yourself this.. if i were to say those 2 things above that you just said, what would you say to me? you would tell me im wrong, or mock me by saying "classic" or something, because those numbers are just guesses, which is what i do sometimes, so how come you get to guess but i cant?Sonny said:
i agree with you mdlbj, i will elaborate further downmdlbj said:
i disagree, read belowsagefr0g said:
that is very wrong.. first off, a -6 rc or -1 tc is NOTHING, and can change in one or two rounds, and you say that going from -6 to +6 is unlikely? uh, ya, if your 1-2 decks away from the cut card, but other than that, no way.. the only way i would agree, not with what you said, but the idea of going to another table, is if you had 10+ bj tables at your casino, and you sure as hell wouldnt do it at a tc of -1 early in the shoe.. also, 3 decks left is not late in the shoe, as 3 decks left would mean ~1.5 in the discard, thus only 33% of all cards to be dealt have been dealt (1.5/4.5), unless of course you are talking about the entire shoe, not including the cut card, which wouldnt make any sense, since the cards behind the cut card wont be playedEmeraldCityBJ said:
I don’t guess, I estimate. When you guess it is based on your opinion. When I make an estimate it is based on books and simulations. For example, my 10-30% estimate is directly from Blackjack Attack. In a standard 6D DAS LS game with 1 deck cut off the difference between spreading 1-12 and Wonging 1-8 is 10.1%. The difference between spreading 1-12 and Wonging 1-10 is 27.1%. If you also consider the fact that the Wonger can double his unit size (and therefore increase his EV by 120%) and still have the same ROR of the 1-12 player, I’d call that huge. Much bigger than the 1% advantage you call “insane.”SilentBob420BMFJ said:
I hate to sound like a broken record, but Blackjack Attack covers all of this.SilentBob420BMFJ said:
But there are only 1.5 decks left to be played! Even if the count does get positive you won’t be able to play many hands before the shuffle. Therefore a “late” shoe isn’t worth very much money to you even if it does turn good (which it probably won't). Think about this: Which is more profitable, 1.5 decks with a RC of –6 or a fresh shoe with a count of 0?SilentBob420BMFJ said:
Certainly the number of tables in a casino will dictate how practical it is to backcount/wong. In fact, most of my play is at small casinos which often have only one or two BJ games, and I'm more or less forced to play-all with a significant spread (typically around 20:1). At the few places which have enough tables for wonging to be practical, I start looking for another shoe when the one I'm currently backcounting hits TC=-1.SilentBob420BMFJ said:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=49956&postcount=173Sonny said:
perhaps now i should say "maybe you should read what emerald and i wrote again"? you should read emeralds post again, because he said if there are 3 decks left, not 3 played, and as i said, if he meant 3 left in the entire shoe (not decks remaining to be played), thats just plain stupid, because if people talked like that, you would have to ask "3 decks remaining? whats the penetration?".. i agree that if there are 3 in the discard tray, its time to go to another table if the count is negative (6 deck)..Sonny said:
if after the first hand its -6 rc, i would stay, unless you have tons of tables, to the point where there are always a few tables shuffling.. i dunno, i reread what you said, and it doesnt seem as exaggerated as i thot it was when i first read it.. the thing is, i also am slightly bias because i wong in/out/in/out, i dont backcount, and the casinos i go to only have a few bj tables, or a few 6 deck tables (21+3).. also, you said that 3 decks left (to be played, thus ~1.5 in the discard) was "late in the shoe", but does anybody on here think that if 33% of cards to be played (in front of the cut card) are in the discard tray that you are now "late" in the shoe? you still have 2/3 left! if your goal is like +3 tc, and your in the negative, then ya thats late in the shoe i guess, but my goal is +1 rc.. i guess its relative, and i slightly overreacted, but i still say that 3 decks left to be played is not late in the shoe, and that -6 rc within first 2 hands is not badEmeraldCityBJ said: