Bankroll Question

[Tree]

When I first started hearing people talk about bankrolls, I thought the numbers were ludicrously high, even by what is considered a small BR (ie $10,000). However I read something here the other day and am looking for some clarification as to whether or not this is correct:

Assuming I wish to allow myself to lose an average of $500 per month playing as a red chipper, my BR is $6,000 per year. Consequently, if I wanted to have a $10,000 BR, my average monthly maximum loss would have to be $833.33. Bankroll and trip BR are two different things. Correct? No?

(note: there are 4 casinos within 5 miles/10km from my apartment, so my trip costs are minimal)

I'm not a ploppy, but I'm nowhere near a full AP yet.

 

[Midwestern]

hmm...you're thinking about it wrong. a bankroll is not what you can afford to lose per month.

your BANKROLL should be a chunk of money that you have set aside that will allow you to play proper AP blackjack. this money will never be touched for any other purpose other than blackjack.

having a correctly sized bankroll will allow you to spread bets properly and should withstand win/loss variance to a normal % probability of risk of ruin. in the long run, playing correctly in +EV situations should give you profit and allow you to grow the bankroll.

technically your trip bankroll is just cash that you have on your person when you sit down to play. you dont need to bring the whole bankroll along, but you should bring enough to spread properly though

 

[Tree]

Ok, so I've been getting a little confused then.

That being said, my fiancee is doing our budgeting for the year and has set aside 500/month that I am able to play without causing us any financial stress in the slightest. I won't be able to get out for another few months at least since I'm in the middle of nowhere working, so once I get back I will have a chunk between 1000 and 2000 as a starting bankroll.

How would you be betting something like that? My usual strategy is simply bet table minimum (10$) unless the count is up close +4 or more,at which point I also start considering playing the Lucky Ladies. I find playing conservatively like this usually allows me to play for a while without killing myself unless the dealer is particularly lucky (last time I went through 200$ REAL quick because he kept getting 4-6 card 21 vs my doubles).

 

[ohbehave]

It can be done that way. He can use the $10k figure to base his bet spread, then use the $833 as what he can play on in month 1. If he loses the month's BR he has to wait until next month to play again using another $833. If the $833 is not lost then the balance of month 1's BR can be rolled over into month 2's BR, giving him a larger actual BR to play on. His RoR will be very high until a full BR is established but this can be a way to play and build the BR at the same time.

 

[Tree]

It can be done that way. He can use the $10k figure to base his bet spread, then use the $833 as what he can play on in month 1. If he loses the month's BR he has to wait until next month to play again using another $833. If the $833 is not lost then the balance of month 1's BR can be rolled over into month 2's BR, giving him a larger actual BR to play on. His RoR will be very high until a full BR is established but this can be a way to play and build the BR at the same time.

I'm glad to know this is an acceptable approach. I hear all this stuff about catching heat at the casino...but anyone who has ever caught heat from their woman knows what REAL heat is :whip:

 

[ohbehave]

If you can start with $2k, play $5-$75, learn about wonging to reduce the amount of play at negative ev so that you are playing the game to win money, not for entertainment, then you have a modest chance of making it.

 

[Tree]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Wonging is simply getting in on +EV, correct? I.e. take breaks during negative counts, spectate the game until the shoe turns positive before sitting down, etc?

If that's the case I tend to do that already.

Starting with 2k would be my preference, I just need to see what the woman says and whether or not I can shave off extra money between now and then.

 

[blackjack avenger]

The Truth Comes Out?

but anyone who has ever caught heat from their woman knows what REAL heat is :whip:

Off the top of my head:
$1,000 for a few hours to $5,000 for a weekend trip you can probably get away with a $5-$10 to $50-$80 spread. You will make something along the lines of $5 to $20 an hour. Also, as a red chip player if the dealer calls checks play at a $100 single hand bet, then don't make a $100 single hand bet! However, this is not your problem!

The statement about the fiancee. Are you sure she can handle losing $10,000? This is the amount you need to commit in order to have the bets listed above. It would be bad if she bails after a $2,000 loss which is quite possible. If this can happen then you have a social ror which is much higher then the mathematical ror.

It sounds like overall you are not quite ready because you have to ask about trip banks and ror etc. Possibly your fiancee is even less ready?

Regarding the fiancee, a little session manipulation to book wins may be helpful. Since travel distances are not a major problem. If ahead and have put in some time, leave so you book a win. If losing try to play awhile longer until you are ahead or just down a small amount. This way you can show more winning sessions which appear better. If behind do not overbet to chase losses, but put in more time.

A critique of the above is you would like for the casino to see you lose! This won't be a problem, you will have many losing sessions even if trying to manipulate winning sessions.

If the fiancee is truly on board then you just want to play for as much time as you wish! This is a big assumption because if losses build thoughts change. Perhaps some winning session manipulation is always in order!

 

[BJgenius007]

Ok, so I've been getting a little confused then.

That being said, my fiancee is doing our budgeting for the year and has set aside 500/month that I am able to play without causing us any financial stress in the slightest. I won't be able to get out for another few months at least since I'm in the middle of nowhere working, so once I get back I will have a chunk between 1000 and 2000 as a starting bankroll.

How would you be betting something like that? My usual strategy is simply bet table minimum (10$) unless the count is up close +4 or more,at which point I also start considering playing the Lucky Ladies. I find playing conservatively like this usually allows me to play for a while without killing myself unless the dealer is particularly lucky (last time I went through 200$ REAL quick because he kept getting 4-6 card 21 vs my doubles).

I hope when you said count is up close +4, you mean TRUE COUNT is up close +4. Also you should only play Lucky Lday when true count is +7 or higher.

The proper spread for $10 minimal 6/8 deck BJ is:

TC Bet Size
Neg/0 $10
+1 $30
+2 $60
+3 $90 or $100
+4 $120 or $150
+5 $160 or $200

You could easily lose your monthly bankroll in one hand if you split and double when TC is very high.

If you have double deck in your area, then you can spread 8:1 instead of 16:1 like this:

TC Bet size
0/Neg $10
+1 $20
+2 $40
+3 $60
+4 $80

 

[Tree]

I hope when you said count is up close +4, you mean TRUE COUNT is up close +4. Also you should only play Lucky Lday when true count is +7 or higher.

Yes I did mean TC, and for some reason I thought Lucky Ladies pivot point was +4, thanks for clarifying.

@blackjack avenger

As it stands, I have more than 10,000 for the year that I could play if I wanted to, the issue is I'm trying not to set it all aside at once because it makes her feel better about it.

She is 100% on board with me doing this, but she wants me to play smart (hence why I came to this site in the first place). If I'm to lose say 5,000 over the course of 10 months, she won't bat an eye. Why? Because she has built our budget spreadsheets and has given me permission to literally burn 500$ if I see fit :grin: The amount I am planning to play is low at the moment just because I've "sandboxed" the rest of my budget, so if I lose my BR, whether it be one month of 500, or 5,000 from rollover and winnings. Sure, my butt will hurt from the kicks it received, but my wallet is indifferent.

One last note on her, I can say that she is much more comfortable with my play now than she was a year ago; she went out with me twice and watched me lose a grand each time and though "that's horrible I can't deal", but then she got to see a positive run and it totally changed her mind. We were at Caesar's Windsor having drinks when we went to look for our new apartment and I said I was going to play a few hands. She made me promise to only play $100 at a $10 table, which I agreed to. That $100 ended up paying for our remaining 4 days in town and the trip back to Ottawa She has gone from telling me not to talk about it to helping me practice at home by dealing to me from a shoe and dishing out chips.


I agree with you that I am not quite ready. I can count fairly well but beyond that I haven't really practiced, something that I have started doing recently for about an hour or two a day on the way to work (chartered bus) and on my breaks. I've also read Blackjack for Blood, The Color of blackjack, and Play Blackjack Like the Pros; given the number of books out there, I doubt that list means anything, but it's a start in my books. Beyond that, I've come to this wonderful hub of vets and enthusiasts hoping to learn and make some friends

 

[Midwestern]

dude if your fiancee is in on this with you, i would train her to be your Big Player and you spot tables with a friend!

the couple that plays together, stays together :grin:

 

[Tree]

Heh I have thought about that, it's an interesting prospect. I haven't done any research on team play though and I'm not 100% on how to pull it off unnoticed.

 

[Coyote]

If you can start with $2k, play $5-$75, learn about wonging to reduce the amount of play at negative ev so that you are playing the game to win money, not for entertainment, then you have a modest chance of making it.

This is good info, it will help me out since my BR is so modest. Thanks for sharing.

 

[bigplayer]

If you are only willing to lose $500 then your bankroll is $500. You basically have four options...

1. Find a game with a higher edge and less risk than blackjack for your $500 bankroll and hope for immediate good luck./
2. Save up for 6 months and try #1 above with $3,000.
3. Maximum Boldness..Every month put $500 on one spin at single zero roulette ($13 in house advantage) and hope for a $17,500 payoff. Eventually you'll hit it and have a seed bankroll.
4. Find a partner or partners also with inadequate bankroll and play to a combined bank.

 

[kewljason]

If you are only willing to lose $500 then your bankroll is $500. You basically have four options...


3. Maximum Boldness..Every month put $500 on one spin at single zero roulette ($13 in house advantage) and hope for a $17,500 payoff. Eventually you'll hit it and have a seed bankroll.

O! M! G! :yikes:

 

[Tree]

If you are only willing to lose $500 then your bankroll is $500. You basically have four options...

1. Find a game with a higher edge and less risk than blackjack for your $500 bankroll and hope for immediate good luck./
2. Save up for 6 months and try #1 above with $3,000.
3. Maximum Boldness..Every month put $500 on one spin at single zero roulette ($13 in house advantage) and hope for a $17,500 payoff. Eventually you'll hit it and have a seed bankroll.
4. Find a partner or partners also with inadequate bankroll and play to a combined bank.

I think I'd have a heart attack just pushing the bet out haha...

Also, I have never been to a casino here that let you play more than $50 on an inside play

 

[Thunder]

I just ran a sim using ms excel and I came up with the following.
If the OP has a 1-4 spread, wongs out at -2, plays a 8 deck game S17 DOA (AC rules) and gets 100 rounds/hr (unlikely but possible), he'll have a win rate of .88 units/100 rounds assuming 75% pen.
The ROR for a 10 hr trip with a 50 unit bankroll will be 37%

If someone comes up with something different, feel free to post otherwise.

 

[Tree]

I don't suppose I could get you to run that with a 100 unit BR on a H17 8D?

 

[Thunder]

Well figure your ROR will drop down to probably around 13% or so, however playing at a H17 8 D game means your WR will be practically nil.

 

[Tree]

Well figure your ROR will drop down to probably around 13% or so, however playing at a H17 8 D game means your WR will be practically nil.

So basically something to play to practice at best?